- Research Article
- 10.25115/wtxewd55
Assessing the Resilience of the Top 3 African Economies Post-Covid
- Mar 05, 2026
- Studies of Applied Economics
- Pierre Rostan + 1 more +1
The objective of the article is to assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa, the three largest economies in Africa. The methodology consists of generating with wavelet analysis two sets of forecasts from 2023 to 2050 of annual GDP (current US$) growth rates: 1) using data including the pandemic from 1965 to 2022 and 2) using data not including the pandemic from 1965 to 2019. The difference in forecast averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economy during the pandemic, the greater the difference, the stronger the resilience. The findings reveal that Egypt’s economy showed greater resilience (+4.29%) than Nigeria’s (+1.78%) and South Africa’s (-0.51%). Driven by stronger growth than Nigeria’s and South Africa’s, the average estimate of the 2023-2050 annual growth rate forecasts of Egypt is expected to be +5.10% with the 1965-2022 historical data while it should be +2.62% for Nigeria and +0.18% for South Africa. Supported by higher growth, Egypt's GDP was expected to overtake Nigeria's and South Africa’s in 2023. Data released by the World Bank in 2024 confirmed this fact. However, the Egyptian economy lost momentum in 2024 and 2025, but it remained ranked second behind the South African economy, with the Algerian economy moving into third place ahead of the Nigerian economy.
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