Anglo-American University

Abstract Nonviolent resistance is often considered among the safest forms of protest. Yet, evidence underpinning this claim stems from inquiries on aggregated annual data on resistance campaigns which tend to get compared to insurgencies and armed conflict. Classifications have also relied on the problematic binary of nonviolence and violence and have distorted the complexity inherent to dissent. This study draws on event-based data and statistically analyzes 169 events of severe repression (1800–2022) along with different protest strategies. Results reveal that while cases featuring armed resistance are positively correlated with repression severity and have experienced higher fatality rates, there are no significant differences in fatality rates in cases where activists adopted nonviolent, scattered violent, and unarmed violent protests. These findings challenge conventional wisdom that nonviolent resistance is safer than other strategies. Case studies of the 1972 Derry massacre and the 1989 Tbilisi massacre are drawn on to elucidate the complex nature of state responses to threats to political status quos.

The study investigates metaverse technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), AI-enhanced tools, and digital competencies in education to enhance learning. A literature review highlights virtual reality, augmented reality, metaverse, and AI’s role in transforming pedagogy. A comparative analysis of Innovating Pedagogy Reports (2019-2024) identifies the evolution and trends in AI tool utilization and readiness for their practical application. The Key findings demonstrate that metaverse and AI boost student engagement and knowledge retention, yet challenges like high costs and technical requirements persist. A Chi-Square Test links higher AI competency among educators to increased online collaboration, underscoring the need for targeted training.

This study highlights the superior performance of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in credit risk modeling under IFRS 9, particularly during economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Using granular bank-level data from Malta, spanning 2017–2023, the analysis integrates macroeconomic scenarios and sector-specific transition matrices to assess credit risk dynamics. Key findings demonstrate BMA’s ability to outperform Single-Equation Models (SEM) in predictive accuracy, robustness, and adaptability. The results emphasize BMA’s resilience to structural economic changes, making it a critical tool for regulatory stress testing and provisioning in small open economies highly exposed to external shocks. This work underscores the importance of forward-looking, flexible frameworks for credit risk management and policy decisions.

The area of lake surface water is shrinking rapidly in Central Asia. We explore anthropogenic and climate factors driving this trend in Shalkar Lake, located in the Aral Sea region in Kazakhstan, Central Asia. We employ the Landsat satellite archive to map interannual changes in surface water between 1986 and 2021. The high temporal resolution of our dataset allows us to analyze the water surface data to investigate the time series of surface water change, economic and agricultural activities, and climate drivers like precipitation, evaporation, and air temperature. Toward this end, we utilize dynamic linear models (DLM). Our findings suggest that the shrinking of Shalkar Lake does not exhibit a systemic trend that could be associated with climate factors. Our empirical analysis, adopted to address local conditions, reveals that water reduction in the area is related to human interventions, particularly agricultural activities during the research period. On the other hand, the retrospectively fitted values indicate a semi-regular periodicity despite anthropogenic factors. Our results demonstrate that climate factors still play an essential role and should not be disregarded. Additionally, considering long-term climate projections in environmental impact assessment is crucial. The projected increase in temperatures and the corresponding decline in lake size highlights the need for proactive measures in managing water resources under changing climatic conditions.

Abstract Over the past several decades, meta‐analysis has emerged as a widely accepted tool to understand economics research. Meta‐analyses often challenge the established conventional wisdom of their respective fields. We systematically review a wide range of influential meta‐analyses in economics and compare them to “conventional wisdom.” After correcting for observable biases, the empirical economic effects are typically much closer to zero and sometimes switch signs. Typically, the relative reduction in effect sizes is 45%–60%.

Over the past several decades, meta-analysis has emerged as a widely accepted tool to understand economics research. Meta-analyses often challenge the established conventional wisdom of their respective fields. We systematically review a wide range of influential meta-analyses in economics and compare them to ‘conventional wisdom.’ After correcting for observable biases, the empirical economic effects are typically much closer to zero and sometimes switch signs. Typically, the relative reduction in effect sizes is 45-60%.

Abstract Despite a growing body of literature on the advancement of autocratic tactics and toolkits in competitive authoritarian regimes (CARs), we lack sufficient knowledge on the strategies that the opposition builds against populist-authoritarian governments. Using two top autocratizing cases – Turkey and Hungary – this article singles out ‘transnationalization’ as one such novel strategy. ‘Transnationalization’ is defined as a strategy through which opposition-led subnational executives transform local and global boundaries by consciously forming a link with the liberal-democratic world in order to expand their space for manoeuvre. Conducting a qualitative content analysis of the Istanbul and Budapest mayors' international Twitter accounts and using evidence from elite interviews with officials from Istanbul and Budapest municipalities, we demonstrate the material, symbolic and political means of this strategy and the rationalist and normative motivations behind it. By discussing the what, how and why of a transnationalization strategy, we fill an important gap in the scholarship regarding opposition strategies in CARs.

Abstract The book is the result of the academic collaboration between the Institute of European Studies and Human Rights at the Pontifical University of Salamanca (Spain) and the Latin American & Caribbean Business and Studies Center at the Anglo-American University (Czech Republic).

Abstract In geopolitical terms, during the last years, external factors and multiple crises have prevented further deepening of relations between EU-LAC countries. The political crisis in Venezuela generated a fragmentation within the Community of Latin American and the Caribbean States and stalled the EU-CELAC relations. The Brexit process prevented a greater deepening of European integration and the development of a more active foreign policy in the world. The stagnation of transatlantic relationship between EU-USA due to protectionist politics implemented by President Trump with the justification of “American First” froze the negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Invest Partnership (TTIP). The strained political and economic relations between USA-China, neither did they favour in EU-USA relationship, EU-CELAC interregionalism and USA-LAC relations. Now, the bid by President Biden to reinforce US influence in the Indo-Pacific region through strengthening the Quad or the AUKUS initiative is a declaration to China, both geopolitics movements tense the EU position with respect to China. The USA wait for its European allies to support its actions in the Indo-Pacific, but the EU has its own plans for China. The “New EU-China Strategy” adopted by European Parliament in 2021 recommends developing a more solid relationship with the Asian country. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic strongly affected both national and international institutions and modified the countries’ priorities in foreign policies.KeywordsGeopoliticsEU-USA relationsEU-CHINA relationsUSA-CHINA relationsBrexitCOVID-19QuadAUKUS