Chicago Council on Global Affairs

ABSTRACT In regions riddled with heightened security tensions from great power competition like Southeast Asia, why do states like the Philippines defy conventional rationality and hedge against their treaty ally? This paper seeks to answer this gap in the literature by arguing for a new definition of hedging that covers contemporary cases. Moreover, this paper proposes the theory of Offensive Hedging, a legitimate form of middle power grand strategy that weaponizes limited alignment to accrue relative gains from great power competition. These arguments shall be supported analyzing Sino–Philippine partnerships through quarterly reports, declassified documents, and official diplomatic rhetoric and compare this alongside Sino‐Philippine tensions in the South China Sea (2016–2024). Finally, this paper shall briefly argue for the generalizability of Offensive Hedging by analyzing Vietnam's grand strategy, setting the foundation for future research using this lens.

The COVID-19 outbreak led to major disruptions in food systems across the globe. In the United States’ Chicago region, the outbreak created immediate concerns around increased hunger, food insecurity, supply chain disruptions, and loss of local liveli­hoods. This was especially evident in communities of color, which faced disproportionate impacts from the pandemic. In March 2020, the Chicago Food Policy Action Council (CFPAC) coordinated a Rapid Response Effort that convened people in working groups related to emergency food assis­tance, local food producers, small businesses, and food system workers to address urgent needs that arose due to the pandemic. Each working group met regularly through virtual calls. This effort has persisted throughout the pandemic in various forms. For this study, we interviewed CFPAC staff members and participants in these calls to create narratives that document respondents’ perceptions of the Rapid Response Effort’s evolution, benefits, challenges, and potential for long-term impacts. Thematic analysis conducted across these narra­tives revealed the importance of network connec­tions to overcoming food system disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis also underscored challenges associated with racism in efforts to strengthen local and regional food sys­tems. These findings indicate a need for research and practice that intentionally attend to power dis­parities related to race within collaborative net­works in order to structure local and regional food systems to achieve greater racial equity and resili­ence to future shocks.

Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is little systematic evidence confirming this claim, nor investigation into the mechanisms at play. In this paper, we provide such evidence from the drone war in Pakistan. Militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas engaged in a brutal counterespionage campaign with the aim of reducing collaboration with the United States. Our analysis combines a novel dataset of collaborator killings with data on drone strike outcomes. We find that strikes killed half as many militant leaders and fighters following collaborator killings and that this suppressive effect likely works by deterring spying in the future. Beyond providing an empirical confirmation of the selective punishment hypothesis, our paper suggests an unacknowledged vulnerability of the drone program to reprisals against local allies and collaborators that limits its effectiveness as a long-term tool of counterterrorism.

This multicountry public opinion survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in collaboration with the East Asia Institute (South Korea), examines the current and potential use of soft power in East Asia. This survey aimed to refine the concept of soft power, operationalize it into a measurable scientific variable, and contribute to the building of a database on soft power in Asia. For this survey, respondents were asked to examine topics such as the attractiveness of different national cultures and values, the effectiveness of nations as regional leaders and problem-solvers, the affinity of nations as trade partners, levels of human capital, attractiveness of educational institutions, and the emergence of regional identities. Participants also gave their opinions about the growing economic and political integration in East Asia and the impact this has on underlying regional tensions, including how likely there would be a military conflict in East Asia in the next ten years. Similarly, respondents answered queries regarding the economic, military, and political influence of China, Japan, and the United States in Southeast Asia, China and the United States as military threats to each other, China's rise as a leader in Asia, and the military presence of the United States in Asia. Further questions asked about the creation of a free trade area in China, Japan and South Korea, trade and investment among these nations, preferred economic systems, countries' willingness to promote democracy and human rights internationally, the use of diplomacy, and the respect for rule of law and sovereignty of other nations. Finally, participants gave their views on the leadership of international organizations, and the influence of one country's popular culture on another.

This paper presents the first results of an attitudinal survey that was conducted among professional electricians in order to explore their knowledge and beliefs related to occupational electrical injury. Four hundred eighty-one out of 1200 questionnaires were returned and analyzed. The presented statistical and qualitative data reflect electricians' personal experiences with electrical injury, their communication patterns around electrical trauma, their understanding of possible electrical injury sequelae, their safety beliefs and attitudes towards occupational dangers, and the reasons for their occupational choice. We expect that the results of this study will enhance our understanding of the psychological profile, environment, and culture of electrical workers. The collected data may also help to identify those at risk for poor outcome after electrical injury and determine a new set of risk factors to be taken into account by medical professionals, social workers, and union/utility training officers.

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