- Preprint Article
- 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3922239/v1
Global Compilation and Analysis of Human Crush Fatalities (1900- 2017)
- Feb 14, 2024
- Research Square
- S F Tebbens + 1 more +1
Abstract This work compiles a global record of 123 fatal human crush events between 1900 and 2017. Completeness of the compiled record appears to improve through time, with more events of all sizes recorded in more recent decades. The three countries with the most documented fatal crush events are, in decreasing order, India, United States and Saudi Arabia, while the countries with the most documented fatalities, in decreasing order, are Saudi Arabia, India, and Iraq. The fatality record of 123 global crush events between 1900 and 2017 is found to exhibit power law frequency-size scaling. Using a statistical approach often applied to earthquakes, the parameters of the scaling relationship are used as the basis for probabilistic forecasting of the recurrence interval of events with 100 and 1000 fatalities. Based on the 2003 to 2017 record, events with 100 or more fatalities are forecast to have a global recurrence interval of every 1.3 years (± 1 standard deviation 1.0 to 1.8 years) and events with 1,000 or more fatalities are forecast to have a global recurrence interval of every 7.4 years (± 1 standard deviation range of 4.7 to 9.1 years). The primary contributions of this work are a compilation of global fatal crush events in the past century and the finding that fatalities associated with global fatal crush events follow power law scaling.
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