Department of Ocean Development

An integrated modeling system has been developed to address problems of resource management in the highland of northern Thailand based on a multidisciplinary approach. This paper first discusses the framework of an integrated economic-hydrological-crop production model, then its validation in Mae Uam sub-catchment in Northern Thailand.

ABSTRACT Planning of water resources can be conveniently made if forecasts of all monthly streamflows in a following year are made available to planners at the beginning of a rain year. This paper proposes a dynamic vector model to enable this. It is based on the Kalman Filter approach of forecasting. It takes into account the measurement as well as modelling errors, caters to the lag values as high as 23 months and also obviates the need to precisely specify the initial parameters. Analysis of different sets of monthly flow data indicated that the model satisfactorily simulates and forecasts 12-monthly streamflow values for a subsequent year. The model parameters are found to undergo steady convergence during their recursive estimation.

The paper presents an analysis of four Indian tide-gauge records. The stations were: Bombay, Madras, Cochin and Vishakhapatnam (Vizag). They were selected because of their reliability.

The Advanced Engineering Laboratory of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution is a development laboratory within the
\nApplied Ocean Physics and Engineering Department. Its function is the development of oceanographic instrumentation to test
\ndeveloping theories in ocean physics, and to enhance current research projects in other disciplines within the oceanographic community.
\nThis report summarizes recent and ongoing projects performed by members of the laboratory.