Ecorys (United Kingdom)

Network analysis using mixed graphical modeling is a computational social science approach with the potential to transform decades of sustainable development goals (SDGs) open data from the official SDG Indicators Database into digestible insights using open-source software R. Flexible and free, R provides the ability to perform network analysis. As we demonstrate, network analysis is a promising tool for exploratory analysis in policy evaluation accounting for the systemic nature of the SDG relationships, with a new opportunity to benefit from its statistical power based on large sample sizes without limiting its interpretability and approachability.

The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) and National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) established the Global Health Research (GHR) portfolio following the 2015 UK Aid Strategy. Its purpose is to support applied health research and training in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), addressing unmet needs and strengthening research capabilities. An initial budget of £429.5m was allocated for the first phase of the portfolio (2016/17 -2020/21), complementing other Official Development Assistance (ODA) research funders and evolving over time to include 30 programmes that NIHR or external partners manage. The portfolio is diverse in terms of its health focus, geographical scope, and funding size and emphasises the NIHR's operating principles of impact, excellence, effectiveness, inclusion, and collaboration, as well as strengthening research capacity, equitable partnerships and community engagement and involvement (CEI). It has grown to encompass 17 thematic areas, operate in over 50 LMICs, and has funded 616 awards in the first phase. The GHR Portfolio's Theory of Change (ToC) outlines the NIHR's ambition to improve global health outcomes. It recognises that it may take 3-10 years for research outputs to influence policy, practice, and behaviour changes and 10-25 years for these changes to lead to strengthened health systems and increased capacity for health promotion and disease prevention. The DHSC commissioned Ecorys through the NIHR in December 2021 to undertake an evaluation of its first phase of activities (2016/17-20/21). The portfolio evaluation is delivered in four stages: inception, interim evaluation, final evaluation (due in December 2023) and a dissemination phase (due to be completed by March 2024). The evaluation utilises a theory-based approach to assess the contributions of the GHR Portfolio to the intended outputs, outcomes, and likely impact of investments. It focuses on assessing whether the portfolio is on track to deliver the expected results given the long-term nature of the research impact. The evaluation process involves testing the portfolio's ToC, including its assumptions and causal links, to determine the validity of the underlying theory using a contribution analysis (CA) approach. CA is an approach that allows recognition of the complexities of attribution, given a whole wide range of enabling and hindering factors (internal and external) producing a result. Findings are assessed against two dimensions:  Strength of evidencehow well triangulated a finding is and how much evidence there is to support it.  Plausibility of contribution -how likely is it that these activities and outputs will lead to the outcomes in the theory of change. Based on this, throughout the narrative, findings are expressed in terms of their strength of evidence (strong, moderate, limited, poor), but it should be noted that this relates to how much evidence the evaluators found to support a finding, rather than a judgement on the result. The evaluation framework and questions are organized around the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC) evaluation criteria, grouped into three pillars: relevance and coherence, effectiveness and efficiency, and sustainability and impact. The framework also includes questions related to adaptability and learning, community engagement and involvement (CEI), and value for money (VfM). The key methods comprise portfolio, programme and award documentation and data review; interviews with stakeholders at portfolio, programme and award levels; an online survey to all funded awards; a Social Network Analysis (SNA) to assess networks and interactions between funded institutions; and a Bibliometric Analysis (BA) to examine research collaboration to be conducted in the final evaluation phase. A purposive sampling approach to programmes and awards for in-depth review provides rich learning and insights against the Evaluation Questions (EQs). This report presents the interim findings of the evaluation of the first phase of the NIHR's GHR Portfolio. It provides early recommendations for improving the portfolio's impact and sustainability.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the effectiveness of exercise and physical activity (PA) promotion on cardiovascular fitness, muscle strength, flexibility, neuromotor performance (eg, balance) and daily PA in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), spondyloarthritis (SpA) and hip/knee osteoarthritis (HOA/KOA).Methodssystematic review (SR) and meta-analysis (MA) were performed searching the databases PubMed/Medline, CENTRAL, Embase, Web of Science, Emcare and PsycInfo until April 2017. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in adults (≥18 years) with RA, SpA and HOA/KOA, investigating the effects of exercise or PA promotion according to the public health PA recommendations by the American College of Sports Medicine. The time point of interest was the first assessment after the intervention period. If suitable, data were pooled in a MA using a random-effects model presented as standardised mean difference (SMD).ResultsThe SR included 63 RCTs, of which 49 (3909 people with RA/SpA/HOA/KOA) were included in the MA. Moderate effects were found of aerobic exercises and resistance training on cardiovascular fitness (SMD 0.56 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.75)) and muscle strength (SMD 0.54 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.72)), respectively, but no effect of combined strength/aerobic/flexibility exercises on flexibility (SMD 0.12 (95% CI -0.16 to 0.41)). PA promotion interventions produced a small increase in PA behaviour (SMD 0.21 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.38)).ConclusionExercises and PA promotion according to public health recommendations for PA improved cardiovascular fitness, muscle strength and PA behaviour, with moderate effect sizes in people with SpA, RA and HOA/KOA.Trial registration numberCRD42017082131.

Abstract This paper revisits the ongoing discussion on the importance of agglomeration externalities – specifically specialization, diversity and competition effects – that may contribute to innovation, productivity and urban employment growth. Previous meta‐analyses suggested that the evidence on agglomeration externalities is strongly context‐specific. Expanding an earlier analysis of 31 articles, we seek to draw in this paper more robust conclusions by means of the statistical evidence for agglomeration externalities presented in 73 scientific articles, all building on the seminal work of Glaeser et al. (1992). Our results confirm that the heterogeneity among studies is huge and can only be partially accounted for by means of an ordered probit analysis. Additionally, some evidence of publication bias is found. We conclude that the conventional lines of inquiry in this literature may now have reached strongly diminishing returns. New lines of inquiry, using rich micro‐level data on firms and workers, dynamic general equilibrium models at the macro level, more attention for spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of agglomeration, and further investigations into the spatial scope of externalities are promising avenues for further research that can enhance our understanding of how agglomeration externalities continue to fuel our increasingly urbanized world.