Federal Statistical Office

Important questions remain regarding differences in geographical and age-specific mortality patterns as the COVID-19 pandemic evolved in consecutive waves, and how COVID-19 mortality compares to seasonal influenza. In a pandemic situation, excess all-cause mortality provides a more complete and robust measure than cause-specific mortality. Data submitted by 26 countries participating in the European Mortality Monitoring (EuroMOMO) network between 2020 and 2023 was analysed to quantify excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Excess mortality from this period was compared to previous influenza seasons from 2014 to 2019. Pooled estimates of excess mortality showed four main waves during the COVID-19 pandemic period, most markedly in people aged 65 years and above, with timing and magnitude that varied between countries. Here we show that prior to implementation of control measures and COVID-19 vaccination, excess mortality greatly exceeded typical seasonal influenza mortality, but later during the pandemic was at levels comparable to influenza.

Spatial statistics often rely on Gaussian processes (GPs) to capture dependencies across locations. However, their computational cost increases rapidly with the number of locations, potentially needing multiple hours even for moderate sample sizes. To address this, we propose using Semi-Implicit Variational Inference (SIVI), a highly flexible Bayesian approximation method, for scalable Bayesian spatial interpolation. We evaluated SIVI with a GP prior and a Nearest-Neighbour Gaussian Process (NNGP) prior compared to Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI), Pathfinder, and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), the reference method in spatial statistics. Methods were compared based on their predictive ability measured by the CRPS, the interval score, and the negative log-predictive density across 50 replicates for both Gaussian and Poisson outcomes. SIVI-based methods achieved similar results to HMC, while being drastically faster. On average, for the Poisson scenario with 500 training locations, SIVI reduced the computational time from roughly 6 hours for HMC to 130 seconds. Furthermore, SIVI-NNGP analyzed a simulated land surface temperature dataset of 150,000 locations while estimating all unknown model parameters in under two minutes. These results highlight the potential of SIVI as a flexible and scalable inference technique in spatial statistics.

Abstract Do employers seek to attract individuals with more education because it enhances human capital or because it signals higher levels of pre-existing traits? We experimentally vary master’s degree completion rates on applicant résumés and examine how this influences candidates’ desirability and employer perceptions of their productive characteristics. Our findings show that while a completed master’s degree increases desirability, an incomplete master’s degree is perceived by human resource managers as less favourable than a bachelor’s degree. This suggests that employers prefer candidates with higher education mainly because they view the degree as a signal of pre-existing productive traits. Consistent with this, employers perceive both cognitive and non-cognitive traits as stronger in master graduates, but non-cognitive traits as weaker in master dropouts compared to bachelor’s degree holders. Overall, perceived cognitive and non-cognitive traits play a larger role in determining a candidate’s attractiveness than expertise. This paper thus provides causal evidence on the origins of the education premium.

Introduction. The article presents the results of a study assessing the association of alcohol consumption with the development of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). The purpose of the study: to study the individual relative (OR) and population attributive risks (PAR) of developing NCDs in alcohol consumption among the adult population of the Russian Federation (RF), including depending on gender and intensity of alcohol consumption. Materials and methods. The data source was microdata from a Sample health status observation of the population in RF in 2023. The Observation questionnaire included questions about frequency and amount of alcohol consumption, diagnosed any NCDs of respondents. The intensity of alcohol consumption was assessed using AUDIT (WHO test). The calculation of OR and PAR was carried out using stratification analysis. Results. In 2023, 49.1% of the adult population consumed alcohol during the last 12 months. The intensity of alcohol consumption was low: 98.14% of female-consumers and 87.45% of male-consumers consumed alcohol with a low risk. The OR revealed alcohol as a risk factor for 10 diseases in men and 9 in women. IR was associated with levels of alcohol consumption: at low risk level, men have an increased risk of 10 diseases, women – 5; at risky use level, men have an increased risk of 11 diseases, women – 6. Heavy alcohol consumption increases men’s risk of 12 diseases, in women – 7. In general, excessive morbidity due to alcohol consumption was associated with 16 diseases. Conclusion. Reducing the prevalence of alcohol consumption among the adult population can significantly reduce the incidence of NCDs.

Background The "birthday effect" refers to increased mortality around birthdays, although evidence remains mixed, with some studies even indicating reduced mortality. While the effect has a minimal impact on overall mortality, lacks prevention potential, and faces methodological challenges, it offers seminal insights into psychogenic health effects. Methods Major causes of death were analyzed using data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (1987-2022), excluding leap years and cases with imputed dates. The relationship between day of birth and death was assessed using a Poisson count model with overdispersion, and mortality rates (MRs) per 100,000 deaths per year were calculated for ±182 days around birthdays. Mortality rate ratios (MRRs) compared these periods to a reference period. Cluster analyses explored mortality rate patterns across age and diagnostic groups. Age was not adjusted for in the Poisson model to avoid zero inflation, with bias from age-related mortality changes assessed separately through sensitivity analyses. Results In the analysis of 1,702,865 deaths over 27 years, an eight percent increase in birthday mortality was observed, equivalent to 22 additional deaths per 100,000 deaths per year. There were 889 excess deaths in the 28 days after the birthday compared to 206 in the 28 days before. Excess birthday mortality was particularly pronounced in men, unmarried individuals, and those with religious affiliations. In individuals aged 85 and older, a pre-birthday dip followed by post-birthday mortality excess was noted. Cardiovascular causes, suicides, and accidents had the highest birthday-related mortality, while diabetes, respiratory diseases, and other conditions showed varied pre- and post-birthday patterns. Conclusions Administrative and age-related biases were ruled out, suggesting the birthday effect is psychogenic. While behavior-linked causes like suicides and accidents had clear birthday patterns, other main causes of death also showed birthday-period effects. Further research, including psychometric and biomarker studies, is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Introduction. The study is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the tobacco and alcohol use prevalence among the adult population during the COVID-19 pandemic.The purpose of the study: to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prevalence of tobacco and nicotine-containing products consumption among the adult population of the Russian Federation, men and women, as well as different age groups.Materials and methods. The data source for calculations was microdata from the Sample observation of the health status of the population conducted by Rosstat in 2019–2022. The indicators characterizing the prevalence and intensity of tobacco and alcohol use by adults of different age groups, men and women, as well as their relative changes in the pre-covid (2019), covid (2020–2021) and post-covid (2022) periods were calculated by the authors.Results. In 2019–2022, the prevalence of alcohol consumption among the adult population, men and women decreased annually. The largest relative decrease was noted in 2021 and amounted to –5.4% among the adult population, –4.3% among men and –6.1% among women. In 2022, the decline continued and amounted to –1.8%, –0.7% and –2.7%, respectively. In 2021, the maximum decrease in alcohol consumption was detected in the age groups of 15–24 years (–11.0% and –12.2%, respectively), which was replaced by significant growth in 2022. A similar trend was found in relation to the prevalence of tobacco/ nicotine use. During 2020–2021, a decrease in the intensity of alcohol and tobacco use was noted.Conclusion. In general, the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the general trends in reducing tobacco and alcohol use among the adult population. The changes in the dynamics of their use (decrease) were temporary and were probably related to both health concerns and restrictions imposed during the pandemic period.

Every pandemic is embedded in specific spatial and temporal context. However, spatial patterns have almost always only been considered in the context of one individual pandemic. Until now, there has been limited consideration of spatial similarities or differences between pandemics. In this study, Bayesian spatial models for disease mapping were used to estimate excess mortality for the pandemics of 1890, 1918 and 2020. A robust linear regression was used to assess the association between ecological determinants and excess mortality. Spatial variations of excess mortality across Switzerland were observed in each pandemic, but the spatial patterns differ between the pandemics. Different determinants contribute to excess mortality, and these factors vary between COVID-19 and the previous pandemics. Spatial excess mortality from COVID-19 is most likely due to cultural and SEP differences, whereas in historical pandemics, mobility, pre-existing tuberculosis or remote mountain living likely contributed to spatial excess mortality.

Ungefähr gleich geblieben ist die Zahl von muskuloskelettalen Krankheiten. Eine markante Verschlechterung stellen wir bei der psychischen Belastung junger Frauen fest. Die Gründe dafür sind nicht ganz klar. Bedacht werden muss sicher die Entstigmatisierung: Junge Menschen getrauen sich heute öfter, über psychische Schwierigkeiten zu sprechen. Auch junge Männer geben heute häufiger an, unter psychischen Problemen zu leiden. Sie holen aber weniger oft Hilfe. Sie auch positive Veränderungen? Erfreulich ist, dass die Zahl der Raucher und Raucherinnen gesunken ist, nachdem es hier eine längere Phase der Stag-nation gab. Vor allem bei den Männern im Alter von 15 bis 44 Jahren sehen wir einen Rückgang. Man hätte zudem ein anderes Resultat erwarten können, weil es zum Beispiel aus Deutschland die Nachricht gab, dass die Zahl der jungen Raucher nach der Pandemie wieder gestiegen sei. Positiv ist ausserdem, dass sich der Gesundheitszustand der Menschen im Allgemeinen nicht verschlechtert hat, trotz Pandemie. Sie erheben jeweils die Anzahl Arztbesuche. Wie haben sich diese entwickelt? Dazu eine Vorbemerkung: Wir befragen eine Stichprobe, im Jahr 2022 umfasste diese 21 930 Personen. Von den Befragten haben 73% innerhalb von zwölf Monaten mindestens einmal eine Generalistin oder einen Generalisten aufgesucht. 46% der Bevölkerung waren 2022 bei einer Spezialis-Auf den Punkt «Starkes Bewusstsein für Gesundheit» Befragung Alle fünf Jahre erhebt der Bund mit der Gesundheitsbefragung, wie es den Leuten in der Schweiz geht. Marco Storni, Projektleiter beim Bundesamt für Statistik, gibt Auskunft über markante Veränderungen und darüber, wie zufrieden die Menschen mit ihren Arztbesuchen sind. Interview: Carole Scheidegger «Ältere Menschen tun mehr für ihre Gesundheit und leiden weniger oft unter Einschränkungen als früher», sagt Marco Storni.