Assessing Vegetation Dynamics of Olokemeji Forest Reserve in Response to Climate Change
Climate change and human activities have significantly altered vegetation dynamics across ecosystems, with tropical reserves like Olokemeji Forest in Ogun State, Nigeria, experiencing notable impacts. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics in Olokemeji Forest Reserve, examining historical patterns, present conditions, and forecasting future responses. The study employed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for 2016, 2020, and 2024 alongside climatic data from NASA POWER Data Access, administrative maps from the Ogun State Bureau of Lands and Surveys, and DGPS ground-truthing data obtained with Tersus Oscar receivers. Data processing and analysis were carried out using ArcGIS 10.x, QGIS 3.28 (with MOLUSCE plugin), SNAP Desktop, Microsoft Excel, and NUWA App for DGPS processing. NDVI, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and Land Surface Temperature (LST), indices were derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, while ground-truthing points were used for validation. The relationship between climate data and vegetation indices was analyzed, and the NDVI for 2028 was forecasted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm within the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS. Results showed that between 2016 and 2020, NDVI values improved slightly, indicating vegetation recovery, but declined again in 2024, reflecting degradation linked to deforestation, farming, and reduced precipitation. Land cover analysis revealed increasing bare land and declining thick vegetation, while LST patterns showed rising temperatures in disturbed areas and precipitation declined sharply after 2020. The ANN forecast for 2028 predicted NDVI values between 0.125 and 0.40, suggesting stressed vegetation with reduced greenness. Mitigation strategies should focus on afforestation and reforestation, stricter forest conservation policies, community-based management, and sustainable farming practices, while regular monitoring using geospatial tools and predictive modeling is recommended to guide adaptive management and ensure the ecological sustainability of Olokemeji Forest Reserve. Received: 13 January 2026 / Accepted: 28 February 2026 / Published: March 2026
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