- Research Article
- 10.1093/ndt/gfaf116.066
#2432 Evaluating KDIGO and kidneyintelX.dkd for risk stratification in diabetic kidney disease: insights from CANVAS and CREDENCE
- Oct 21, 2025
- Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation
- Fergus Fleming + 5 more +5
Abstract Background and Aims Currently, risk assessment in chronic kidney disease (CKD) primarily relies on urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), as integrated by the kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) risk classification. However, these measures are subject to biological and analytical variability, hampering risk stratification. KidneyintelX.dkd, a composite risk score combining clinical variables and biomarkers at baseline, aims to refine risk stratification in diabetic kidney disease (DKD). This study investigates the correspondence between KDIGO and kidneyintelX.dkd risk assessment, focusing on their predictive power and clinical utility in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and a broad range of CKD. Method We measured tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR)-1), TNFR-2, and kidney injury molecule (KIM-1) on banked plasma samples from CANVAS and CREDENCE participants, and executed kidneyintelX.dkd at baseline and year 1. Participants with a KDIGO low-risk classification (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m² with UACR <30 mg/g) were excluded, as kidneyintelX.dkd is not intended for this group. We analyzed event rates across risk categories for a composite kidney outcome of 40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure. Results We included 2954 participants (mean eGFR 61.8 mL/min/1.73 m2; median UACR 518.0 mg/g) with available plasma samples and a moderate to very high KDIGO risk. At baseline, kidneyintelX.dkd scored 73.0% of participants with a moderate KDIGO risk as low risk and 27.0% as moderate. Among high KDIGO risk, 12.8% were classified as low risk, 58.8% as moderate and 28.5% as high by kidneyintelX.dkd. In the highest KDIGO risk group, 3.9% were classified as low, 44.3% as moderate and 51.8% as high by kidneyintelX.dkd. Amongst each KDIGO risk stratum, kidneyintelX.dkd further stratified participants for the risk of the composite outcome, with hazard ratios of 10.2 and 16.5 for high vs. low kidneyintelX.dkd in the high and very high risk KDIGO strata, respectively (Fig. 1). The number needed to treat (NNT) for canagliflozin was lower for kidneyintelX.dkd high risk (NNT 18) compared to KDIGO very high risk (NNT 29). Moreover, changes in kidneyintelX.dkd risk category from baseline to year 1 were more strongly associated with the outcome compared to changes in KDIGO risk categories (Fig. 2). Conclusion KidneyintelX.dkd aligns well with KDIGO but provides more nuanced risk categorization within each KDIGO risk stratum. KidneyintelX.dkd showed improved identification of patients at high risk, reflecting a potential for higher absolute benefits of treatment with SGLT2i. Changes in kidneyintelX.dkd risk levels from baseline to 1 year also associated with subsequent risk more effectively than changes in KDIGO risk categories. In conclusion, kidneyintelX.dkd may further refine risk stratification and inform more efficient treatment allocation compared to kidney clinical metrics alone.
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