Geo7 (Switzerland)

• Novel method to estimate the impact of building retrofitting measures on the heat consumption • Nationwide coverage based on public data • Extending causal average treatment effect estimation method Buildings are a major contributor to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, with residential heating alone accounting for over 80% of Switzerland’s residential energy demand. Improving building efficiency through retrofitting is critical for achieving national climate goals. This study presents a machine learning-based framework to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on heat consumption. By integrating predictive models with causal inference techniques, we assess the heterogeneous treatment effects of various retrofitting actions, such as roof and facade insulation, and window replacement. Our framework combines domain-specific machine learning models for heat consumption estimation with causal inference methodologies to quantify the effectiveness of different retrofitting measures. We evaluate the approach using real-world heat consumption data from three Swiss regions, incorporating structural building attributes and retrofitting records. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this data-driven monitoring system while also highlighting current data limitations that hinder large-scale implementation. The ability to continuously track the actual energy savings from implemented retrofitting measures is essential for policymakers, building owners, and energy planners. This framework provides a scalable solution to bridge the gap between theoretical energy savings estimates and actual post-retrofitting performance. By improving the accuracy of energy efficiency evaluations, this approach supports more effective policy design, subsidy allocation, and progress toward energy and climate goals.

Abstract The meander‐type fish pass is a slotted fishway characterised by the exclusive use of rounded and smooth components. Due to the specific geometry and arrangement of the basins, which differ considerably from the conventional vertical slot pass, there are significantly different hydraulic conditions. The water flow is guided along the basin walls by means of a dominant main current while the water body is much calmer towards the centre of the basin, where very low flow velocities are found. A detailed assessment of the functionality is currently impossible due to the small number of surveys of fish passage hitherto carried out. However, considerable potential is indicated by the high passage rates at some sites and the lack of selectivity with regard to species and small fish, together with the design advantages and the adaptation possibilities after construction work is completed. In this study, we offer some recommendations for dimensioning to enable this potential to be exploited. These are oriented around recommendations for conventional vertical slot passes regarding basin size, flow depth and slot width. Due to the great potential of the meander‐type fish pass, it is desirable to construct still more individual pilot passes to implement comprehensive surveys of fish passage on a sound methodological basis.

Based on glacier retreat and degrading permafrost in high alpine regions across the Bernese Oberland (Central Switzerland), several new hazardous source areas for processes became evident within the last years. The evaluation of susceptible periglacial areas and the assignment of resulting processes by modelling will be one of the major tasks to be solved in near future. The prediction of those processes and their consequences is an interdisciplinary question. Meteorological scenarios for the next 50 years derived from climate change scenarios stand at the beginning of the decision chain. Based on those, susceptible periglacial areas which act as starting zones for massmovements (rockfall, landslides, debris flows) or new sediment sources can be calculated through sophisticated permafrost and glacier retreat models. A vast basic monitoring of the permafrost by BTS measurements helps understanding on-going processes and is fundamental for the bedload calculation in the periglacial area, which is measured by monitoring systems at representative and characteristic locations within the study area (e.g. Spreitgraben near Guttannen, Switzerland). Dealing with large investigation areas of several 100 km2 it is important to use adequate models. Well established simulation tools have been used within the project. The result is a so called periglacial hazard indication map visualizing endangered areas in the year of 2060 for massmovement processes as well as other natural hazards like floods, glacial ice avalanche or subglacial lake outburst.

Abstract. The main goals of this study were to identify the alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.