Grantham University

Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to and is under consideration at Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. ESSOAr is a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn more about preprints preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v1]Resolution Dependence of Southern Ocean Mixed-Phase Clouds in ICONAuthorsAnnaPossneriDJessicaDankerEdwardGryspeerdtSee all authors Anna PossneriDCorresponding Author• Submitting AuthorInstitute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe UniversityiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6996-8624view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressJessica DankerInstitute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe Universityview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressEdward GryspeerdtFaculty of Natural Sciences, Grantham Institute for Climate Changeview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email address

The United States stands to lose its scientific, economic, and technological advantage in the world if more young people are not encouraged to enter STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) fields (9, 24). It is important to engage elementary school students in science because, as they get older, their enthusiasm for science declines (7, 10). The decline is more pronounced in girls than in boys (10), which can lead to fewer girls choosing careers in science. Students usually enjoy field trips to science museums where they see experiments performed. Being able to participate in an experiment is also beneficial and preferred by students, as it gives them the opportunity to gather their own data rather than watch a science demonstration (10). Elementary school students often choose science as their favorite subject, whereas their own teachers choose it as their least favorite subject when they were students (13, 16). Having a professional scientist come into the elementary school classroom and guide students through an experiment provides them with an enthusiastic role model, first-hand interaction, and authentic instruction with a real scientist (11). Teachers benefit because they learn new content and new ways to teach it (15).

The CCCEP Policy Innovation fund supported a project to explore the feasibility and perceived usefulness of an indicator of confidence in climate change policies. This final report presents the analysis that was undertaken by the project team, the outcomes of a workshop, and highlights ongoing steps to further develop the work. A stakeholder workshop was held to inform the proposed indicator. This took place on November 18th 2015 at UCL (see the annexes for a list of participants, and for the slides presented at the workshop by the project team). Prior to the workshop, a discussion paper was developed and circulated to participants. This report first provides the background and rationale of the idea itself, and examines why an indicator of confidence in policy might be useful. Section 3 then examines key issues relating to the scope and focus of such an indicator, and illustrates the views of stakeholders that participated in the project workshop on these issues. Sections 4 and 5 examine existing attempts or methods for measuring confidence or policy uncertainty in climate and energy fields, and in other related fields, and draws lessons for how a better climate policy confidence indicator might be developed. A summary of the methodological options for developing an indicator is presented in section 6, while section 7 draws conclusions and highlights next steps. Throughout the report, the perspectives of stakeholders consulted during the workshop are provided in text boxes.

Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ‘upper bound’ climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690 – $1890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. Moreover, a survey on the consequences of the 2005 floods on the marginalized population reveals the special vulnerability of the poorest, which is not apparent when looking only through a window of quantitative analysis and aggregate figures. For instance, the survey suggests that total losses to the marginalized population from the 2005 floods could lie around $250 million, which represents a limited share of total losses but a large shock for poor households. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%. We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. As shown by the survey, the marginalized population has little access to financial support in disaster aftermaths, and targeting this population could make the benefits of such measures even larger. While this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario and is insufficient to design an adaptation strategy, it does demonstrate the value of risk-assessment as an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We conclude with a discussion of sources of uncertainty, and of risk-based tools that could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.

It is generally accepted that hand hygiene is the single most effective measure to prevent health care associated infection. Similarly, education is thought to be the cornerstone of effective practice. While common sense supports the notion that hand hygiene compliance would be enhanced by producing a well informed health care worker, traditional didactic methods of teaching are often poor at invoking and sustaining behaviour change. Storytelling is gaining popularity as an educational activity as it is said to stimulate thought, reflection and enhance the learning experience. This paper, describes one way in which storytelling may be used within a hand hygiene improvement strategy.

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