- Research Article
- 10.1088/1742-6596/3140/7/072006
Predicting thermal environment metrics using surrogates of physics-based building models
- Nov 01, 2025
- Journal of Physics: Conference Series
- S Qiblawi + 2 more +2
Abstract Practitioners increasingly require pre-design modeling capabilities to guide efforts in housing renovations, which can be expensive and time-consuming. In parallel, researchers have advanced building surrogate modeling techniques to reduce simulation time, but little work has been done on models predicting indoor environmental conditions at sub-annual resolutions to support passive design and performance. This work develops the capability to simulate indoor thermal conditions at much higher speeds than traditional workflows. This is achieved through a flexible methodology that transforms physics-based building performance simulation (BPS) models into reduced order surrogate models, utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques as well as dataset generation through parallel computing. The surrogate outputs predict thermal environment measures, such as operative temperature, air temperature, and standard effective temperature. This study applies the workflow to a residential single-family archetype in Canada, achieving accurate predictions with errors lower than 5% CV(RMSE), and very little over- or under-estimation (NMBE lower than 0.06%) at speeds more than six times faster than typical surrogate modelling workflows. This work is significant because it leverages surrogate modeling techniques to predict indoor thermal conditions, supporting design workflows that highlight thermal autonomy, i.e., a building’s ability to passively maintain comfortable conditions for occupants.
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