Institute for Social-Ecological Research

Abstract Transformations toward desirable futures remain challenged by the complexity of social-ecological systems (SES), including the diverse actors’ perspectives -i.e., what they perceive as desirable futures and how to achieve them. Given that SES are also affected by multiple anthropogenic drivers of change, one-size-fits-all governing approaches fall short. Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) has proven useful in engaging actors in making sense of this complexity, although few PSP studies have been conducted in the Global South mountain SES. Therefore, we conducted three PSP workshops with smallholder farmers, business owners, and nature conservationists in the Kilimanjaro SES, Tanzania, to understand (1) which SES elements and drivers of change they perceive as characterizing the current SES conditions, (2) how they envision future scenarios based on SES dynamics and the interplay of multiple drivers, and (3) management actions toward desirable futures. Actors identified key SES elements: water resources, biodiversity, land use and agriculture, tourism, traditions and culture and drivers of change, including population growth, loss of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), technological development and climatic change. Actors envisioned four future scenarios, in which they identified key aspects of desirable futures: environmental protection, land use and agricultural management, and cultural preservation. Proposed management actions mapped onto different levels of governance, from those requiring national commitment to those requiring local collective actions. Based on actors’ reflections on their past and present experiences and their visions of desirable futures, our conclusion is twofold: (1) desirable futures require local agency, and (2) there is a need for polycentricity in governance.

Desertification, accompanied by the loss of perennial grasses and bush encroachment, affects more than 10% of the world’s drylands, thereby placing increasing pressure on rangelands and farmers’ livelihoods. In Namibia, rangeland desertification is exacerbated by external shocks such as droughts, market changes, and new regulatory frameworks that have led to profound social and ecological changes within this tightly coupled social–ecological system (SES). In this context, the interrelationship among system components, drivers, and external factors, as well as the impact of strategies to halt desertification, remain poorly understood. The present study employed a retrospective mixed-methods approach to investigate the drivers of desertification on Namibia’s freehold farms by applying the social–ecological trap (SET) concept. Our approach combined remote sensing methods with semi-structured interviews and a literature review. The aim was to decipher the underlying processes and self-reinforcing feedback loops and to identify associated changes in the social and ecological subsystem. Our results revealed that inadequate grass availability, coupled with income deficits, serves as a pivotal catalyst for rangeland desertification, perpetuating a self-reinforcing feedback loop. To avoid or mitigate the effects of ecological regime shifts and to help farmers escape the SET of desertification, it will be necessary to implement changes in the dominant feedback loops through long-term risk mitigation strategies, such as rangeland restoration measures, as well as on- and off-farm income diversification. These strategies will provide a foundation for subsequent research on effective long-term mitigation strategies to prevent further rangeland desertification and to secure the livelihoods of farmers.

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the most promising behavioral interventions to foster socially responsible investment (SRI) among retail investors. Using the SHIFT framework, five key avenues that underpin sustainable behavior change are elaborated: harnessing social influences, embedding new investment habits, navigating individual influences, as well as feelings and cognitive drivers, and enhancing SRI’s tangible impact. Significant barriers arise from the lack of comparability, reliability and tangibility of SRI information, exacerbated by low levels of SRI and financial literacy. Meanwhile, investors often perceive SRI as underperforming. Promising interventions include simplifying the decision-making context through labelling and defaults, tailoring information to specific motives and capturing the tangible impact of SRI to increase self-efficacy. Priming and framing techniques can be used to create a long-term focus, leverage social and personal norms, and activate self-conscious emotions such as guilt and pride, or align financial with ethical interests. Despite growing academic evidence on the drivers and barriers to SRI, this narrative literature review encourages more research that causally tests intervention strategies aimed at changing investor behavior toward socially responsible investing.

In Europe, various conservation programs adopted to maintain or restore biodiversity have experienced differing levels of success. However, a synthesis about major factors for success of biodiversity-related conservation programs across ecosystems and national boundaries, such as incentives, subsidies, enforcement, participation, or spatial context, is missing. Using a balanced scorecard survey among experts, we analyzed and compared factors contributing to success or failure of three different conservation programs: two government programs (Natura 2000 and the ecological measures of the Water Framework Directive) and one conservation program of a non-governmental organization (NGO; Rewilding Europe), all focusing on habitat and species conservation. The experts perceived the NGO program as more successful in achieving biodiversity-related aims than governmental conservation legislation. Among the factors perceived to influence the success of biodiversity conservation, several stood out: Biodiversity-damaging subsidies, external economic interests competing with conservation goals or policies conflicting with biodiversity conservation were recognized as major factors for the lack of conservation success. Outreach to raise societal interest and awareness as well as stakeholder involvement were perceived as closely related to the success of programs. Our expert survey demonstrated that external factors from economy and policy often hinder success of conservation programs, while societal and environmental factors rather contribute to it. This study implies that conservation programs should be designed to be as inclusive as possible and provides a basis for developing a standardized methodology that explicitly considers indirect drivers from areas such as economy, policy and society.

Entrevista com Martin Jay (Universidade de Berkeley, Califórnia), por Bruna Della Torre e Eduardo Altheman.

Results of the Benefits project, funded by the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection under grant numbers 03EI5203A-C. The joint project aimed at<br> 1) Identifying forms, scopes, motives and obstacles of financial participation by citizens and municipalities,<br> 2) Analyzing determinants of geographical and socio-economic distribution/inclusiveness of the participation of citizens and municipalities and its effectiveness for the transformation process as well as the underlying social mechanisms,<br> 3) Developing strategies in a transdisciplinary design to win citizens and municipalities for financial participation in the energy transition ("mobilization strategies"), which will be transferred into practice together with associations and energy and climate protection agencies.<br> This should improve the data basis for analyses differentiated by forms of financial participation. The data will be made available for subsequent research work. Based on the scientific analyses in step (2), practicable concepts were developed together with practitioners. Consortium partner Fördergesellschaft Erneuerbare Energien finished its part earlier and has submitted a separate final report on its work.

Groundwater resources are essential for human water supply and ecosystem functioning. Against the background of climate change, groundwater use becomes increasingly important, as it serves as a buffer during dry periods and is often less polluted than surface water. However, changing socio-economic factors influence groundwater use patterns (e.g. demographic transition, economic development and efficiency gains) and can lead to high demands during (dry summer) periods of low availability. In addition, there are climate change-related changes in groundwater recharge due to altered precipitation patterns and increased potential evapotranspiration. Therefore, it is necessary to consider scenarios of future groundwater availability and use to support sustainable groundwater management in Europe. We combine groundwater recharge and societal water demand in Europe to identify spatial patterns of groundwater availability and demand mismatches. For the current situation, we use data from the global hydrological model WaterGAP to quantify, with a spatial resolution of 0.5&amp;#176;, groundwater stress across Europe as the ratio of total groundwater abstractions to groundwater recharge. For future recharge estimation, we compile a multi-model ensemble with data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) that includes four global climate and eight global hydrological models to assess the uncertainties that are inevitable in analyzing the future impacts of climate change. We quantify scenarios of future domestic water demand using water use data, population scenarios and climate variables on a national and sub-national scale. By combining current groundwater stress with trends in future groundwater recharge and domestic water demand, we identify hotspots of future stress on domestic water supply. Our approach contributes to the understanding of human-water interactions and highlights the importance of combining physical conditions and human influences. The methodology can be easily adapted to other regions of the world (if data on water use and population are available) to support sustainable groundwater management.