Japan Economic Research Institute

ABSTRACTIn this article, we extend the functional-coefficient cointegration model (FCCM) to the cases in which nonstationary regressors contain both stochastic and deterministic trends. A nondegenerate distributional theory on the local linear (LL) regression smoother of the FCCM is explored. It is demonstrated that even when integrated regressors are endogenous, the limiting distribution is the same as if they were exogenous. Finite-sample performance of the LL estimator is investigated via Monte Carlo simulations in comparison with an alternative estimation method. As an application of the FCCM, electricity demand analysis in Illinois is considered.

Historically, Japanese mining policy has been characterized by the protection of domestic mining activities against sudden changes such as free trade in 1963, economic depression after the oil shock, and exchange rate fluctuation. However, the number of domestic mines has dwindled since 1985 due to the appreciation of the yen, depressed metal prices and ore depletion, and now, there are only two operating mines in Japan, Hishikari and Toyoha. In contrast, Japan has developed a large-scale custom smelting sector, and most of the concentrates are imported from overseas. In the 1990s, Japanese companies actively materialized equity participation in development of large mines mainly in Chile in order to secure a stable supply of copper concentrates.The world mining industry has been rapidly changing in terms of demand/supply, M & A, environmental issues and technical progress. The timely and accurate analysis of world mining information will be indispensable to the forecasting of possible future changes, strategy and sound mining policy.

Book Review| November 01 1993 Inside Japan's Defense. Technology, Economics and Strategy Inside Japan's Defense. Technology, Economics and Strategy. By Michael W. Chinworth. Washington: Brassey's (U.S.), 1992. xxi, 243 pp. $26.00. Arthur J. Alexander Arthur J. Alexander Japan Economic Institute Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Journal of Asian Studies (1993) 52 (4): 1007–1009. https://doi.org/10.2307/2059379 Cite Icon Cite Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Arthur J. Alexander; Inside Japan's Defense. Technology, Economics and Strategy. Journal of Asian Studies 1 November 1993; 52 (4): 1007–1009. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2059379 Download citation file: Zotero Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search Books & JournalsAll JournalsJournal of Asian Studies Search Advanced Search The text of this article is only available as a PDF. Copyright © The Association for Asian Studies, Inc. 19931993 Article PDF first page preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this content.

A quarterly macro‐econometric model of Japan's postwar economy has been constructed for the period 1954–1965 FY on the basis of standardized quarterly national income accounts. The model is designed for facilitating short‐term economic forecasting and formulating adequate fiscal and monetary policy. Longer‐term factors such as labor mobility, technical progress, etc., were also considered in the model.The model consists of fifty‐three equations related to most of the macroeconomic variables in both money and real terms, and the equations were estimated in principle by the limited information maximum likelihood method. Principal exogenous variables related to policy instruments are government expenditures including transfers, parameters of tax functions, interest rate, and prices and fares controlled by the government, etc. In formulating the model, non‐linear specifications were used whenever found necessary.Results of our testing on its predictive capability indicated fairly satisfactory performances for our observation period and also for 1966 FY. Multipliers related to fiscal and monetary policy were also obtained, indicating the dynamic characteristics of the Japanese economy, in particular, represented by dynamic business fixed investment, as compared with corresponding multipliers of the U.S. models.Although the model is exploratory and to serve as a core for a more disaggregated “Master Model,” the usefulness of the model for our purposes and the workability of our quarterly national accounts data for model‐building have been recognized. The quarterly data, however, still remain to be improved especially in regard to consistency between income and expenditure and integration with flow‐of‐funds accounts.