Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation

Numerous physical, chemical, and biological factors influence coral resilience in situ, yet current models aimed at forecasting coral health in response to climate change and other stressors tend to focus on temperature and coral abundance alone. To develop more robust predictions of reef coral resilience to environmental change, we trained an artificial intelligence (AI) with seawater quality, benthic survey, and molecular biomarker data from the model coral Pocillopora acuta obtained during a research expedition to the Solomon Islands. This machine-learning (ML) approach resulted in neural network models with the capacity to robustly predict (R2 = ~0.85) a benchmark for coral stress susceptibility, the “coral health index,” from significantly cheaper, easier-to-measure environmental and ecological features alone. A GUI derived from an ML desirability analysis was established to expedite the search for other climate-resilient pocilloporids within this Coral Triangle nation, and the AI specifically predicts that resilient pocilloporids are likely to be found on deeper fringing fore reefs in the eastern, more sparsely populated region of this under-studied nation. Although small in geographic expanse, we nevertheless hope to promote this first attempt at building AI-driven predictive models of coral health that accommodate not only temperature and coral abundance, but also physiological data from the corals themselves.

Background: Multivariate statistical approaches (MSA), such as principal components analysis and multidimensional scaling, seek to uncover meaningful patterns within datasets by considering multiple response variables in a concerted fashion. Although these techniques are readily used by ecologists to visualize and explain differences between study sites, they could theoretically be employed to differentiate organisms within an experimental framework while simultaneously identifying response variables that drive documented experimental differences. Methods: A meta-analysis employing various MSA was conducted to re-analyze data from two studies that sought to understand the response of the common, Indo-Pacific reef coral Seriatopora hystrix to temperature changes. Results: Gene expression and physiological data partitioned experimental specimens by time of sampling, treatment temperature, and site of origin upon employing MSA. Discussion: These findings 1) signify that S. hystrix and its dinoflagellate endosymbionts display physiological and molecular signatures that are characteristic of sampling time, site of colony origin, and/or temperature regime and 2) promote the utility of MSA for documenting biologically meaningful shifts in the physiological and/or sub-cellular response of marine invertebrates exposed to environmental change.

BackgroundThe rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin.Methodology/Principal FindingsSatellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles.Conclusions/SignificanceThermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.

BackgroundFishery management has historically been an inexact and reactionary discipline, often taking action only after a critical stock suffers overfishing or collapse. The invertebrate ornamental fishery in the State of Florida, with increasing catches over a more diverse array of species, is poised for collapse. Current management is static and the lack of an adaptive strategy will not allow for adequate responses associated with managing this multi-species fishery. The last decade has seen aquarium hobbyists shift their display preference from fish-only tanks to miniature reef ecosystems that include many invertebrate species, creating increased demand without proper oversight. The once small ornamental fishery has become an invertebrate-dominated major industry supplying five continents.Methodology/Principal FindingsHere, we analyzed the Florida Marine Life Fishery (FLML) landing data from 1994 to 2007 for all invertebrate species. The data were organized to reflect both ecosystem purpose (in the wild) and ecosystem services (commodities) for each reported species to address the following question: Are ornamental invertebrates being exploited for their fundamental ecosystem services and economic value at the expense of reef resilience? We found that 9 million individuals were collected in 2007, 6 million of which were grazers.Conclusions/SignificanceThe number of grazers now exceeds, by two-fold, the number of specimens collected for curio and ornamental purposes altogether, representing a major categorical shift. In general, landings have increased 10-fold since 1994, though the number of licenses has been dramatically reduced. Thus, despite current management strategies, the FLML Fishery appears to be crawling to collapse.