Real Time Basin Modeling: Improving Geopressure and Earth Stress Predictions William Bradley Standifird; William Bradley Standifird Knowledge Systems, Inc. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Martin David Matthews Martin David Matthews Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Paper presented at the SPE Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, September 2005. Paper Number: SPE-96464-MS https://doi.org/10.2118/96464-MS Published: September 06 2005 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Twitter LinkedIn Get Permissions Search Site Citation Standifird, William Bradley, and Martin David Matthews. "Real Time Basin Modeling: Improving Geopressure and Earth Stress Predictions." Paper presented at the SPE Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, September 2005. doi: https://doi.org/10.2118/96464-MS Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Search Dropdown Menu nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentAll ProceedingsSociety of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)SPE Offshore Europe Conference and Exhibition Search Advanced Search AbstractBasin modeling is an effective tool for pore pressure prediction. A model that can be updated as new data is acquired can provide a Look Ahead prediction that may bevalid for several thousand feet ahead of the bit.A new modeling program is described that has proven effective both in pre-drill analysis and in while-drilling situations for a variety of geologic regimes.In the recently completed DEA 119 Phase 2 study, pressure gradients were predicted to less s than 1 ppg for the whole well in 62% of blind test analyses.In numerous wells, real time updating of the basin model has proved effective at narrowing the envelope of pore pressure and Earth stress uncertainty ahead of the bit.The model utilizes conventional compaction principles derived from seismic and/or well gradient logs as calibration. It combines this information with geologic-based information (ages, thickness, porosity and lithology) to predict the geopressure environment that will be encountered by the well.As the well is drilled, new information becomes available that will either confirm or refute the original geopressure prediction.This new data is well-specific and can be used to update the basin model.The data ahead of the bit still contains all of the information that is known about the area and has not been changed by the addition of the real time data.Adjusting the model withthe newly acquired data will therefore reduce the envelope of uncertainty that existed in the original model and update the prediction with the new information.This updating is performed in real time and is available while the well is being drilled.An early example of basin modeling in a real time look ahead mode is shown to demonstrate the challenges that have been addressed to date.Through careful examination of a case where performance could have been better, the authors reveal the weaknesses of the approach such that they can be better understood. Furthermore, the example demonstrates the capability to update the prediction of pore pressure ahead of the bit and use this advance prediction for other solutions such as wellbore stability computations.Aggregated look ahead performance results from five other projects are revealed that demonstrate the ability of this technology to provide information to operators that can improve the safety and performance of well construction.IntroductionRecent multi-year analysis suggests abnormal pressure and wellbore instability represent 30–50% of non-productive time during well construction[1].Failure to correctly anticipate subsurface environment in well planning can cause over or under-design of the tubular and fluids programs resulting in excess construction costs, sidetracks, and inability to reach geologic objectives. Proper planning can reduce these problems; however, real time model updating (a.k.a. surveillance) can not only minimize downtime, it can save casing strings and enable success where operating based on the original plan will result in failure. Monitoring shale pressures with logging while drilling measurements and petrophysical techniques is a reactive approach that requires the formation to be exposed, sometimes over a hundred feet, before an analysis can be performed.The purpose of this paper is to describe a pro-active approach, using fit for purpose pore pressure and Earth stress forward modeling technology, to improve the success and efficiency of well construction. Keywords: basin modeling, drilling, knowledge system inc, real time system, wellbore integrity, artificial intelligence, expert system, correlation, petrophysical analysis, real-time basin modeling Subjects: Wellbore Design, Reservoir Characterization, Wellbore integrity, Reservoir geomechanics This content is only available via PDF. 2005. Society of Petroleum Engineers You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download.
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