Marble Arch Medical Centre

BackgroundThe infodemic accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an overwhelming amount of information, including questions, concerns and misinformation. Pandemic fatigue has been identified as a concern from early in the pandemic. With new and ongoing health emergencies in 2022, it is important to understand how pandemic fatigue is being discussed and expressed by users on digital channels. This study aims to explore and report on key narrative themes associated with expressions of pandemic fatigue by users on digital platforms.MethodsThis paper describes the collection of publicly available data over a 3-month period from multiple online sources using the Meltwater and CrowdTangle platforms to source data from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Pinterest, Product Reviews, Twitch, blogs & forums. A comprehensive search strategy was developed and tested. A total of 1,484,042 social media posts were identified during the time-period that included the defined search terms for pandemic fatigue. These data were initially sorted by highest levels of engagement and from this dataset, analysts reviewed the identified posts to isolate and remove irrelevant content and identify dominant narratives. A thematic analysis was carried out on these narratives to identify themes related to expression of pandemic fatigue. Two researchers reviewed the data and themes.ResultsThe thematic analysis of narratives identified six main themes relating to expression of pandemic fatigue, and one theme of counter narratives against pandemic fatigue. Data volume increased concurrent with the time of the mpox emergency announcement. Emergent themes showed the different ways users expressed pandemic fatigue and how it was interlaced with issues of trust, preventative measure acceptance and uptake, misinformation, and being overwhelmed with multiple or sustained emergencies.ConclusionsThis paper has identified the different ways users express pandemic fatigue on digital channels over a 3-month period. Better understanding the implications of the information environment on user’s perceptions, questions, and concerns regarding pandemic and more broadly emergency fatigue is vital in identifying relevant interventions and, in the longer term, strengthening the global architecture for health emergency preparedness, prevention, readiness and resilience, as evidenced in this paper. There are clear pathways for further research, including incorporating additional languages and reviewing these themes over longer time periods.

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an information-based approach to the reserving problem, we derive the process of the conditional distribution of the ultimate loss. The “best-estimate ultimate loss process” is given by the conditional expectation of the ultimate loss. We derive explicit expressions for the best-estimate ultimate loss process, and for expected recoveries arising from aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance treaties. Use of a deterministic time change allows for the matching of any initial (increasing) development pattern for the paid claims. We show that these methods are well-suited to the modelling of claims where there is a non-trivial probability of catastrophic loss. The generalized inverse-Gaussian (GIG) distribution is shown to be a natural choice for the a priori ultimate loss distribution. For particular GIG parameter choices, the best-estimate ultimate loss process can be written as a rational function of the paid-claims process. We extend the model to include a second paid-claims process, and allow the two pro- cesses to be dependent. The results obtained can be applied to the modelling of multiple lines of business or multiple origin years. The multi-dimensional model has the property that the dimensionality of calculations remains low, regardless of the number of paid-claims processes. An algorithm is provided for the simulation of the paid-claims processes.