National Bank of Poland

This study examines the integration of climate risk into credit risk assessment within the banking sector. We review the types of climate-related risks and the channels through which they may affectfinancial institutions, including physical risks from extreme weather events, transitional risks, and regulatory pressures. The paper highlights key challenges in incorporating climate considerations into credit risk models, notably data limitations at both national and firm levels, as well as the limited historical data on climate-related financial impacts. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of climate risk on the credit risk of commercial banks. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 438 commercial banks from 54 countries worldwide, spanning the period from 2016 to 2022. Our findings reveal complex and sometimes counterintuitive relationships, underscoring that integrating climate risk into credit assessments is a methodologically demanding process that requires careful interpretation of both data and indicators.

Federal Reserve unconventional monetary policy has been quite often discussed through the lens of quantitative easing (QE). The latter has been extensively described in the literature. This article makes a tentative attempt to move beyond QE. In order to achieve it, the attention focuses on two issues here. One of them is a phenomenon known as the divorce of money from monetary policy. The second one is quantitative tightening (QT), which cannot be merely perceived as a reversal of a formerly introduced quantitative easing. This text is an attempt to offer a detailed description of such tightening based upon the Fed’s experience. Furthermore, the text contains a preliminary assessment of the consequences of the policies pursued in the last eighteen years along with a brief description of the challenges the Fed is facing in the years ahead. One of them is the need to adjust its policy in the wake of the advent of cryptocurrencies, which can be perceived as the side effect of unconventional monetary policies.

ABSTRACT This paper proposes an extension of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model that accounts for the trade linkages within the Global Value Chains (GVCs). In the modified FEER framework, both backward and forward linkages are taken into consideration. To demonstrate the empirical relevance of the complex nature of existing trade linkages, the proposed FEER model is applied to analyze exchange rate fluctuations of the selected Central and Eastern European countries against the euro. It is documented that in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland the standard FEER framework predicts rapid appreciation of the equilibrium exchange rate after 2010, which implies deepening undervaluation of the actual real exchange rate towards the end of the analysed period. Instead, when the GVCs' linkages are taken into account in the framework, actual real exchange rates are broadly in line with the fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, and hence the missing real appreciation of the Czech krone, the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty is to a large extent an equilibrium phenomenon.

Celem artykułu jest analiza faktycznych postępów internacjonalizacji renminbi. Zdaniem wielu badaczy dzięki swoim powiązaniom handlowym chińska waluta może stać się ważną walutą rezerwową – po dolarze amerykańskim i euro – oraz kluczowym składnikiem trójelementowego międzynarodowego systemu walutowego. Jednocześnie bardzo istotne w tym procesie jest zaangażowanie chińskich władz. W tym kontekście w artykule w pierwszej kolejności scharakteryzowano rozwój systemu kursu walutowego w Chinach oraz rolę renminbi w globalnym rynku walutowym. Następnie przedstawiono postępy w tym procesie oraz bariery ograniczające uzyskanie przez renminbi statusu międzynarodowej waluty rezerwowej. Szczególną uwagę zwrócono na ostatni okres, w którym ożywiły się działania zmierzające do dedolaryzacji globalnej gospodarki. Nałożenie sankcji gospodarczych na Rosję i zablokowanie jej aktywów rezerwowych w wyniku agresji na Ukrainę spowodowały wzrost zainteresowania alternatywnymi sposobami wymiany handlowej i poszukiwanie innych możliwości utrzymywania rezerw finansowych – w tym zmianę struktury koszyka posiadanych walut rezerwowych oraz zakupy fizycznego złota. Na koniec zwrócono także uwagę na działania państw grupy BRICS mające na celu stworzenie systemu walutowego alternatywnego wobec amerykańskiego dolara.

Central banks across the world are facing a challenging situation related to their negative profitability. Even if the problem itself should not pose any threat to the viability of these banks, the whole issue related to negative profitability may be politically sensitive. Unlike commercial banks, central banks enjoy a uniqueness related to the link between them and society. This relationship comprises not only benefits to central banks, but also some obligations central banks must render to society. The whole sequence of events to be described in this article and clearly beyond the influence of central banks contributed to a situation where the aforementioned benefits started to decrease, while the scope of obligations began to rise. Such a combination had to affect their profitability, at least temporarily. The aim of this article is to explain the reasons behind the entire sequence of events which contributed to the current circumstances central banks are trying to defy. In order to understand the complexity of the entire story of central banks’ profitability, a brief analysis will be done containing both elements of history of central banking and, above all, elements related to the unique (but not homogenous) accounting rules pursued by central banks across the world.

Abstract Financial inclusion, for which the keystone is access to a bank account, is crucial to overcome the socioeconomic backwardness of African countries and to improve the African societies’ well-being. The study concentrates on this continent to better understand the nature of its development in terms of financial inclusion. The research aims to identify the institutions’ impact on financial inclusion in 35 African countries in the years 2010-2019. The analysis is based on a panel model with fixed individual effects. Novelty of the study rests in incorporation of four institutional variables: constraints on the executive, resolving insolvency, property rights, and WGI. The results showed a positive and statistically significant impact of resolving insolvency on financial inclusion (a measure covering people with financial institution accounts) across the entire sample. However, this relationship is especially visible in more developed countries, while constraints on the executive turned out to be crucial for low-income countries. Another novelty of the study is creation of an index of financial inclusion covering Mobile Money which was used to verify the obtained results. In this case, no positive impact of any institutional variable was identified which may mean that a favourable institutional environment is not required for the development of Mobile Money.

Abstract The purpose of this article is a comparative analysis of regional and temporal labor market differentiation. In the study, the following voivodeships were taken as comparative objects. In accordance, following the administrative division, the voivodeships were adopted, while the research period was taken as the years 2011–2021. To study the differentiation of the voivodeship labor markets, the classical method of share shifts and the analysis of share shifts were used. The number of employed people and the registered unemployed by gender were chosen as the measures of differentiation on which the study was based. The results of the analyses made it possible to examine changes in the structure and assess the development of regional labor markets over time.

Abstract Low interest rates were introduced in the global economy to support the weak economic growth that followed the global financial crisis. In the real estate sector, low interest rates usually lead to a boom in investment and prices. This boom, however, is not spread throughout the economy, but rather concentrated in major cities. We demonstrate this phenomenon on the example of the office market in Warsaw (Poland). While it would be beneficial for the Polish economy to develop office space in smaller cities that have an insufficient supply of modern office space, investors have focused mainly on the capital. This has not only led to an increase in the cost of building land and construction, but has also pushed some relatively new existing office buildings off the market. We call such behaviour uncreative destruction and explain why it was possible.