Netanya Academic College

In a world marked by persistent uncertainty, accurately predicting the future is vital. While certain people ("superforecasters") and practices (aggregation) can produce more accurate forecasts, the utility of these forecasts depends on whether they are persuasive enough to be heeded. This study investigates the relationship between persuasion and accuracy in geopolitical forecasts. In a forecasting competition, 153 forecasters predicted future global events and explained their rationales. Next, 474 evaluators rated these rationales for persuasiveness. Using a neural network-based language model, we found that although forecasting rationales contained valid cues for accuracy, evaluators were no more persuaded by accurate forecasts. Further analyses using large language models revealed that psychological attributes indicating expertise, trustworthiness, and emotional composure were associated with both persuasion and accuracy, while eloquence and confidence, though persuasive, were unrelated to accuracy. We conclude that people are sensitive to valid cues, but are misled by invalid ones, impairing overall calibration.

Plain Language Summary This study looked at how bioremediation – a process that uses microorganisms to break down pollutants – can clean up coastal sand contaminated with fuel. Over 106 days, the amount of petroleum hydrocarbons in the sand dropped dramatically, from 5,753 mg/kg to just 37 mg/kg, a reduction of about 98.21%. This final level is well below the safe limit of 100 mg/kg set by Israel’s environmental authorities, showing that the cleanup was successful. Most of the pollution was removed within the first 48 days, emphasizing the importance of good conditions, like proper aeration, to support microbial activity early on. These findings suggest that bioremediation is an effective way to restore polluted coastal areas and could be used more widely to reduce oil pollution in marine environments.

Background and objectivesPublic healthcare systems face constraints in financial and professional resources. The Mandatory Tenders Law 5752 − 1992 stipulates that before entering into a contract for the supply of a service or product, public authorities and government corporations must undergo a public tender process. The authors sought to identify and contextualize the trends observed in tenders for healthcare services over the past decade amid increasingly stringent resource constraints. What prevails over what: quality or price?MethodsAll tenders for services provided by health professionals published by the Ministry of Health and health maintenance organizations between 2013 and 2023 were collected. Each tender was assessed for the quality and price components. Trends in the quality and price percentage were evaluated.ResultsA total of 224 tenders were analyzed. A statistically significant weak negative correlation was found between the quality percentage and years (r=-0.185, p < 0.01), indicating that quality percentages tended to decrease over the years. The quality percentages statistically significantly decreased by 10.14% points during the COVID-19 period (p < 0.05). The median quality percentage of tenders for health services directly impacting patients over extended periods was statistically significant higher compared with the median quality percentage of tenders for health services having indirect impacts on patients (p < 0.05).ConclusionsDespite healthcare organizations prioritizing quality and seemingly assigning it a higher weight in tenders, price is often the decisive factor. Effective mechanisms to safeguard the quality and safety of healthcare services in addition to incorporating economic considerations into tender processes should be established.

We document a causal effect of social interactions on investor behavior using the number of local soccer games as a measure of social interaction intensity.Social transmission is identifiable in buy but not sell trades.The effect of Social Interaction Intensity (SII) on the sensitivity of buying to past buys is greater for riskier and high-return stocks.Social interactions cause an extremity shift wherein existing shareholders increase their positions, especially within demographically homogeneous communities.There is suggestive evidence that investor mood may modulate the effectiveness of transmission.Higher social interaction intensity increases the sensitivity of investors' trading volume, and portfolio riskiness to past trades.SII also increases the sensitivity of stock trading volume and retail ownership percentage to past buys.