Netherlands Institute for Social Research

This article explores the intricacies of futures‐making in urbanizing deltas. My aim is to move beyond linear narratives of submergence to craft more nuanced and empirically accurate descriptions of how futures are made in fluid and unsettled landscapes. Conceptually, I contend that the vocabulary of volatility helps advance research at the intersection of urban and coastal futures. I ground this study on the outskirts of the Indonesian coastal city of Semarang, where residents navigate the conjunction of land subsidence (hydrogeologic volatility) and predatory speculative land acquisitions (economic volatility). I call this speculation on the uncertain future of damaged coastal areas trading, volatility. My analysis hinges on two practices of anticipation that I use as a method to understand how people craft opportunities despite and out of volatility – mapping land ownership and elevating roads and houses. By documenting their anticipatory function, I draw attention to how residents engage themselves and their neighbourhoods in open‐ended and plural forms of futuring (making‐knowing futures). This article concludes with a reflection on the kinds of politics anticipation and speculation generate not so much in terms of resistance or retreat, but a subtler attunement to and subversion of economic and biophysical volatilities.

This article asks: How have climate injustices accumulated in climate negotiations, and how can a climate system justice approach be developed? It concludes that, first, without a just approach, climate change cannot be addressed. Second, it identifies six cumulative injustices: (a) delay of the long-term climate objective, (b) post-equitable sharing of the ‘carbon budget’, (c) ignoring stranded resources and assets, (d) adopting efficient but inequitable/ineffective mitigation instruments, (e) weak adaptation and loss and damage strategies and (f) a symptomatic not curative approach. This article concludes by calling for climate system justice, arguing that only a just approach enables effective climate policy.

ABSTRACTIntroductionThe 2022 outbreak of mpox subclade IIb in the Netherlands affected primarily men who have sex with men (MSM). Despite the sharp decline in cases, there are concerns about future mpox outbreaks. We investigated the impact of mpox introductions, accounting for vaccination, behavioural changes, and introductions of subclades with different characteristics.MethodsWe developed a compartmental model for mpox among MSM. We distinguished three levels of sexual activity: low, medium, and high. The group with high activity was the 5% of the population with the highest numbers of sexual partners; the group with low activity was the 60% with the lowest numbers of partners. In the model, individuals were allowed to change sexual activity level. We examined several scenarios with mpox introductions.ResultsIn January 2024, 54% of MSM with high sexual activity level had immunity; this declined to 39% a year later, due to changes in sexual activity. Introduction of 5 cases in May 2025 resulted in 759 cases in the first four months without vaccination after 2023, but the numbers of cases were 34% or 48% lower with 3,000 vaccinations in August-October 2024 or February-April 2025, respectively. With earlier initiation or greater magnitude of behavioural adaptations, the number of mpox cases was 17-51% smaller. Introduction of a subclade with 10% higher transmission probability than subclade IIb resulted in 77% more cases.ConclusionsDue to changes in sexual activity, the fraction immune in the group with high sexual activity will decline, leading to greater possibilities for future mpox outbreaks. The number of cases can be reduced with preventive vaccination and behavioural adaptations. Recurring vaccination campaigns should prioritise individuals with high sexual activity level, ensuring those entering high-activity groups are reached. Campaigns promoting timely behavioural changes remain crucial.KEY MESSAGESWhat is already known on this topicThe numbers of mpox cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands were low in 2023-2024, but there have been many introductions of new cases infected outside the Netherlands. Therefore, there are concerns about future mpox outbreaks, but it is uncertain whether new mpox vaccination campaigns are needed.What this study addsDue to behavioural changes, not-immune MSM enter the group with high sexual activity, thus reducing the fraction immune within the group and increasing the possibility of future mpox outbreaks. Preventive mpox vaccination and behavioural adaptations can impede mpox spread. However, outbreak sizes will increase as the time between vaccination roll-out and new introductions is extended.How this study might affect research, practice or policySocial marketing and interventions promoting timely behavioural changes and vaccination are essential. Recurring vaccination campaigns are necessary for mpox prevention, prioritising individuals with high sexual activity level and ensuring those entering high-activity groups are reached. The findings also emphasize that research is needed to understand determinants of behaviour and monitor behavioural changes over time.

BackgroundIn 2022 and 2023, a global outbreak of mpox affected mostly gay, bisexual and other men having sex with men (GBMSM). Outbreak control in the Netherlands included isolation, quarantine, post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination and primary preventive vaccination (PPV).AimWe describe the course of the outbreak, the vaccination programme, vaccine effectiveness (VE) of full vaccination against symptomatic disease, and trends in behaviour to generate hypotheses about factors that influenced the outbreak's decline.MethodsIn this observational study, we collected data from public health services on notified cases, number of PPV invitations and PPV doses administered. We calculated PPV uptake and coverage. Trends in behavioural data of GBMSM visiting sexual health centres were analysed for all consultations in 2022. We estimated VE using the screening method.ResultsUntil 31 December 2023, 1,294 mpox cases were reported. The outbreak peaked in early July 2022 and then declined sharply. PPV started on 25 July 2022; in total 29,851 doses were administered, 45.8% received at least one dose, 35.4% were fully vaccinated. The estimated VE was 68.2% (95% CI 4.3-89.5%). We did not observe an evident decrease in high-risk behaviour.DiscussionIt is unlikely that PPV was a driver of the outbreak's decline, as incidence started to decline well before the start of the PPV programme. The possible impact of behavioural change could not be demonstrated with the available indicators, however, the data had limitations, hampering interpretation. We hypothesise that infection-induced immunity in high-risk groups was an important factor explaining the decline.

This interdisciplinary study, coupling philosophy of law with empirical cognitive science, presents preliminary insight into the role of emotion in criminalization decisions, for both laypeople and legal professionals. While the traditional approach in criminalization theory emphasizes the role of deliberative and reasoned argumentation, this study hypothesizes that affective and emotional processes (i.e., disgust, as indexed by a dispositional proneness to experience disgust) are also associated with the decision to criminalize behavior, in particular virtual child pornography. To test this empirically, an online study (N = 1402) was conducted in which laypeople and legal professionals provided criminalization ratings on four vignettes adapted from criminal law, in which harmfulness and disgustingness were varied orthogonally. They also completed the 25-item Disgust Scale-Revised (DS-R-NL). In line with the hypothesis, (a) the virtual child pornography vignette (characterized as low in harm, high in disgust) was criminalized more readily than the financial harm vignette (high in harm, low in disgust), and (b) disgust sensitivity was associated with the decision to criminalize behavior, especially virtual child pornography, among both lay participants and legal professionals. These findings suggest that emotion can be relevant in shaping criminalization decisions. Exploring this theoretically, the results could serve as a stepping stone towards a new perspective on criminalization, including a “criminalization bias”. Study limitations and implications for legal theory and policymaking are discussed.

Belonging has regularly been related to discrimination, most studies originally focusing on the contrasting effect of education (and later also employment, language proficiency and social contacts) in explaining belonging through discrimination (e.g. the integration paradox). Yet, few studies focus on ‘feeling at home’ as indicator of belonging among recently arrived refugees nor do they investigate dynamics or include refugee-specific (reception period and mental health) characteristics as determinants. Employing longitudinal survey data on 2484 recently arrived Syrian refugees in the Netherlands to explain their ‘feeling at home’ during the initial period after arrival, results showed the positive impact of changes in mental health, being active during reception and changes in social contacts on changes in Syrians’ feeling at home in the Netherlands. Like in previous studies, higher education was negatively related to Syrians’ feeling at home. Indicating indirect effect for the refugee-specific characteristics we found that those with a better mental health generally perceived discrimination less, resulting in feeling at home in the Netherlands more strongly. Also, among this relatively new group of refugees, perceived discrimination directly and indirectly explains the dynamics in feeling at home. As such, policies targeted at newcomers’ integration can ultimately be effective if being allowed to belong by receiving society members is an integral part of this.

Abstract Financial, staffing and societal sustainability of healthcare systems is coming under increasing pressure in the Netherlands and beyond. Causes include the ageing population and the widening of treatment options as a result of technological innovation. In this report we analyse how these trends are affecting the sustainability of healthcare. The broad picture is that the need for care is growing faster than both the economy and—even more urgently in the short term—the labour force. This situation is expected to persist for decades, giving cause for concern about the sustainability of healthcare. This presents a challenge not just for the health care sector, but for society as a whole. This report concludes that good healthcare for all requires better choices, precisely because these limits of its financial, staffing and societal sustainability are coming into view. Specifically, this means that the key task now before us is to better delineate the sector’s future growth, in so doing steering it as carefully as possible towards those healthcare and preventive interventions which achieve the greatest health benefits and safeguard public values most effectively. This will be no easy task. It requires clear and sometimes uncompromising decisions, which can be difficult to make from a normative point of view. And these in turn require a long-term vision of the role and function of healthcare in our society that has broad public support. In this report we explain how we have arrived at these conclusions. We also discuss perspectives drawn from various scientific disciplines on making choices within and about healthcare, and explain why the processes involved could be better. Finally, we suggest concrete ways to make better choices.

ABSTRACT This study provides evidence from a large-scale, long-lasting, multi-faceted pilot with anonymized application procedures (AAP) in a Dutch city in 2016–2017. We evaluate effects of AAP on interview and hiring rates, compare two methods of anonymizing, and analyze attitudes related to AAP among hiring managers, applicants and the general public. Results show that minority applicants were relatively more likely to be invited for an interview after AAP were introduced. This difference was significant for applicants from the largest non-Western minority groups. Minority applicants’ hiring rates also improved, though only significantly so when comparing 2016 (not 2017) with the reference period (2015). Moreover, minority applicants, especially from the largest non-Western groups, were more likely to be invited when standardized anonymous application forms were used than when applications were manually anonymized. Finally, applicants and the general public were much more positive about AAP than managers. Many managers saw no need for AAP; they were often unconvinced that discrimination occurs in their organization. We discuss these results in light of the scarce and mixed evidence on AAP effectiveness, and reflect on important insights regarding conditions under which AAP can be implemented successfully and practical implications uncovered by our analyses of different actors’ views.

Abstract The maiden speech – the first speech given by a newly elected member of parliament (MP) – is a tradition in many parliaments, a personalized rite of passage to political power. As ethnic minority MPs remain relative newcomers, the maiden speech is, for them, even more politically charged. How do ethnic minority MPs represent their identities in this transformative moment? Our data set includes 93 ethnic minority MPs who have held a seat in the Dutch parliament, covering 88 maiden speeches, spanning 11 cycles (1986–2023). The diachronic and intersectional analysis shows that the relation between descriptive, substantive and symbolic representation for historically marginalized groups fluctuates and is influenced by the political environment. The ‘firsts’ of a particular gender/ethnicity intersectional group are less likely to narrate a minority identity than non‐firsts. Progressive party ideology influences the extent to which ethnic minority MPs emphasize an (intersectional) minoritized identity. Personal stories and family histories are often used to counter stereotypes, unmute silenced cultures and share values. The focus on the maiden speech as a political narrative sheds light on the blurry lines between substantive, symbolic and descriptive representation. The political narrative is a strategic tool for MPs from historically disadvantaged groups to represent collective identities.