New Charter University

Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction often coexist with overlapping clinical features, they are usually studied separately. The SPIROMICS HF (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD and Heart Failure Study) is testing hypotheses that new computed tomography emphysema subtypes are associated with specific cardiovascular phenotypes (eg, cor pulmonale, cor pulmonale parvus), common airway branch variants are associated with right heart dysfunction, and symptomatic tobacco-exposed persons with preserved spirometry have signs of increased left ventricular afterload. SPIROMICS is a multicenter observational study of COPD with extensive pulmonary phenotyping of participants with ≥20 pack-years smoking and nonsmoking controls. COPD and COPD severity were defined by standard spirometric criteria and symptomatic tobacco-exposed persons with preserved spirometry by ≥20 pack-years, normal spirometry, and COPD Assessment Test score >10. SPIROMICS HF selected all participants in SPIROMICS visit 5 at major sites. Its comprehensive speckle-tracking echocardiography, which included physiological perturbations of leg raise and low-intensity exercise, was harmonized prospectively with the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Early Heart Failure and HeartSHARE (Combining Omics, Deep Phenotyping, and Electronic Health Records for Heart Failure Subtypes and Treatment Targets) studies. The cardiopulmonary magnetic resonance imaging protocol with gadolinium administration included myocardial fibrosis sequences, pulmonary angiography, time-resolved 3-dimensional cine magnetic resonance imaging (4-dimensional flow) of venous return, and metronome-paced tachypnea to induce dynamic hyperinflation. Coronary artery calcium was assessed on computed tomography scans. The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire was administered. Of the final sample of 753 participants, 57% had COPD (15% mild, 27% moderate, and 15% severe), 18% had symptomatic tobacco-exposed persons with preserved spirometry, 16% were smoking controls, and 8% were nonsmoking controls. Reproducibility of the main measures from speckle-tracking echocardiography (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83-0.99), exercise echocardiography (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.71-0.99) and magnetic resonance imaging (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.57-0.99) were good-to-excellent, including in severe COPD. SPIROMICS HF aims to characterize and understand cardiopulmonary interactions in COPD and COPD-related phenotypes to inform targeted treatments for combined cardiopulmonary failure.

The electronic medical record contains a wealth of information buried in free text. We created a natural language processing algorithm to identify patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) using text alone. We created 3 data sets from patients with at least one AF billing code from 2010 to 2017: a training set (n=886), an internal validation set from site no. 1 (n=285), and an external validation set from site no. 2 (n=276). A team of clinicians reviewed and adjudicated patients as AF present or absent, which served as the reference standard. We trained 54 algorithms to classify each patient, varying the model, number of features, number of stop words, and the method used to create the feature set. The algorithm with the highest F-score (the harmonic mean of sensitivity and positive predictive value) in the training set was applied to the validation sets. F-scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were compared between site no. 1 and site no. 2 using bootstrapping. Adjudicated AF prevalence was 75.1% at site no. 1 and 86.2% at site no. 2. Among 54 algorithms, the best performing model was logistic regression, using 1000 features, 100 stop words, and term frequency-inverse document frequency method to create the feature set, with sensitivity 92.8%, specificity 93.9%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 in the training set. The performance at site no. 1 was sensitivity 92.5%, specificity 88.7%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. The performance at site no. 2 was sensitivity 89.5%, specificity 71.1%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80. The F-score was lower at site no. 2 compared with site no. 1 (92.5% [SD, 1.1%] versus 94.2% [SD, 1.1%]; P<0.001). We developed a natural language processing algorithm to identify patients with AF using text alone, with >90% F-score at 2 separate sites. This approach allows better use of the clinical narrative and creates an opportunity for precise, high-throughput cohort identification.

Global cooling of the Earth’s surface has been observed following the largest volcanic eruptions of the past century, although the average cooling is perhaps less than expected from simple energy balance considerations. The Mount Pinatubo eruption, with both the climate forcing and response observed better than previous volcanoes, allows a more quantitative analysis of the sensitivity of climate to a transient forcing. We describe the strategy and preliminary results of a comprehensive investigation of the Pinatubo case.