NewClimate Institute

Social tipping points are promising levers for accelerating decarbonization progress. They describe how social, political, economic, or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analyzing the potential for social tipping requires the inherent complexity of social systems to be considered. Yet the growing social tipping literature is missing a practical framework that embeds conceptual and empirical aspects of complex feedback processes. In this perspective, we propose a dynamic systems approach that can contextualize conceptual social tipping mechanisms into practical interventions, and map the key feedback mechanisms underlying tipping dynamics across systems and scales. Our approach has three main components: a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms; directed data collection for empirical evidence and monitoring tipping dynamics; and global, integrated, descriptive modeling to project future dynamics and provide ex ante evidence for tipping interventions. We demonstrate how and why this approach should shape a broad agenda to strengthen the viability and effectiveness of social tipping research.

The framework presented in this study aims to provide insights into how climate policy is represented in integrated assessment models, responding to the call to link model scenarios with concepts used in public policy literature and related fields. As such, it contributes to increased transparency leading to better understanding across disciplines and communication about the relevance of model outcomes with policymakers. The framework categorises climate policy into policy aims and policy implementation at different stages of the policy cycle, and can be used to demarcate different climate policy scenarios incorporating and linking the international and national level. This approach provides clarity on critical modelling assumptions concerning the workings of policy to scenario users (including policymakers), such as policy stringency and status. We discuss the framework in relation to scenarios exploring pathways meeting the long-term Paris goal to hold temperature well below 2 °C or 1.5 °C, Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the Paris Agreement, and current implemented policies. Specifically, the application of the framework and model implementation of the scenarios is illustrated with implementation in the IMAGE model. To project the expected policy impact on greenhouse gas emissions, the policy goals and policy instrument targets are translated into model targets. This is implemented in the model by either changing parameters for available policy instruments, such as carbon price or subsidies, or adjusting model parameters such as efficiency and costs to meet targets.

This paper analyses how fiscal stimulus spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic supports the low-carbon transition. We developed a new framework to categorise rescue and recovery spending measures according to their level of greenness and their type of expected impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This framework allows to better capture how measures’ emission impacts may unfold over time and to identify the share of fiscal spending missing robust conditions or incentives to be considered low carbon. We assess nearly 2500 measures announced by 26 emitters as of May 2021, representing around 67% of global GHG emissions excluding land use in 2019. Our findings show that the largest share (35%) of spending with potential GHG emission implications went to measures that cannot be explicitly coded as high-carbon or low-carbon but substantiate current business-as-usual practice (‘supporting the status quo’). Our assessment reveals the different magnitudes to which the emitters have missed the opportunity for a green recovery. Low-carbon spending is sizeable (22%) across countries. However, almost two-thirds will likely rather unfold its impact over time. This fiscal spending may trigger emissions reductions through enabling or catalytic causal effects over time but will not necessarily lead to direct emission reduction impacts before 2030.

<p>In this first annual review of Open Science practices, we highlight the range of outputs produced by researchers within the Climate Compatible Growth programme. We define practices as the skills and tools that enable compliance with the concept of Open Science including the FAIR principles and the u4RIA goals. We emphasize the importance of “good enough” practices and the need to avoid binary connotations of “best practice”. Our review identifies a clear distinction between continually developed “living outputs”, such as datasets, tools and methods, and teaching materials, and published “final outputs”, such as journal articles, blog posts and software releases. There are a range of open-science practices that are shared within these two categories of outputs. We recommend the adoption of a range of practices appropriate for these categories.   </p> <p>The adoption of these practices enables better collaborative working as they can support multi-disciplinary working teams that include representatives from a wider range of knowledge expertise. However, the adoption of new working practices come at the cost of a significant learning curve, and the adoption of techniques and approaches that are not familiar to researchers. This points to the need for dedicated funding, training and support to achieve increased adoption of “good enough” practices. As such, there is a need to better understand the priorities for the open science practices identified in this review. Given the limited resources to conduct research in the programme, the allocation between “doing” research and learning and implementing these practices needs to be carefully considered.</p> <p>There is potential for the collaborative working practices enabled by the adoption of the Open Science concept to unlock huge opportunities for democratic and equitable co-development of scientific development between UK researchers and the Lower and Middle-Income Countries targeted by the CCG programme.</p>

Abstract This paper analyses how fiscal stimulus spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic supports the low-carbon transition. We developed a new framework to categorize rescue and recovery spending measures according to their level of greenness and their type of expected impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This framework allows to better capture how measures’ emission impacts may unfold over time and to identify the share of fiscal spending missing robust conditions or incentives to be considered low-carbon. We assess nearly 2,500 measures announced by 26 emitters as of May 2021, representing around 65% of global GHG emissions in 2018. Our findings show that the largest share (35%) of spending with potential GHG emission implications went to measures that supported the status quo in the respective countries when there were low-carbon alternatives. Our assessment reveals the different magnitudes to which the emitters have missed the opportunity for a green recovery. While low-carbon spending is also significative in size (22%) across countries, almost two-thirds of it can be considered enabling or catalytic in nature and will rather unfold its impact over time. This fiscal spending will trigger transformational change over time but will not necessarily lead to direct emission reduction impacts before 2030.

National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, reduce best estimates of projected global average temperature increase to 2.0–2.4 °C by 2100, bringing the Paris Agreement temperature goal within reach. A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. These targets could substantially lower projected warming as compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C).

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

Increasing attention is being paid to the Paris Climate Agreement and the impacts of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) intended to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. However, the nature and evolution of existing policy mixes that underlie NDCs remain poorly understood. This critical issue has emerged from the outcomes of the Talanoa Dialogue for Climate Ambition, where little progress was made in building a comprehensive, evidence-based foundation for effective climate policy. To a large extent, this is due to the nature of the process, and a lack of data related to policy interventions in the pre-2020 period, notably their composition, coverage, and orientation. We seek to address these shortcomings by applying a directed content analysis to a dataset of national and city-level policy interventions. The aim is to quantify the nature and evolution of policy efforts that promote the adoption of low-carbon energy technologies (LCETs) globally. Fifteen databases, containing more than 10,000 policies and measures were reviewed. Our findings highlight the rapid spread of policy portfolios and an international convergence towards economic incentives (notably subsidies). At the city level, technology and infrastructure policies dominate. However, it is unclear to what extent behavioural factors (i.e., cognitive, motivational and contextual aspects) that affect the choice and use of LCETs are taken into account in policy design. This is particularly important because studies that model the feasibility of the 1.5 °C target reveal behavioural changes and the rapid adoption of low-carbon lifestyles as critical enabling factors. In response to the outcomes from the Talanoa Dialogue, we argue that policymakers need to go beyond stringent policy mixes and rapidly re-think their traditional economic-driven policymaking approach. Far more attention needs to be given to behavioural factors when designing, evaluating and implementing LCET policies.