Norwegian Defence University College

ABSTRACT Deterrence is effective only insofar as it is not excessive or misdirected and thus perceived as provocative. This article brings together insights from deterrence theory, studies of Russian strategic culture, lexicology, and historical examples revealing what the author terms Russian provocationism. Regarding great power status as a sacred value, leading chekists – the keepers of Russian strategic culture – have a propensity to see provocations everywhere. The author argues that Western deterrence of Russia must be culturally tailored and therefore take into account the Russian historically and culturally conditioned hypersensitivity to provocations, especially against its great power status.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a cholangiopathy associated with a high risk of progression to end-stage liver disease and hepatobiliary cancer. Its pathogenesis remains poorly understood, and current clinical management offers limited therapeutic options, primarily liver transplantation. Claudin-1 (CLDN1), a transmembrane protein highly expressed in liver epithelial cells, plays a critical role in cell-cell communication and signaling. We aimed to investigate the functional role of CLDN1 as both a mediator and potential therapeutic target for PSC using patient cohorts alongside murine and patient-derived intervention models. CLDN1 expression patterns and associated cellular phenotypes were analyzed in liver tissues from five PSC patient cohorts using single-cell RNA sequencing, spatial transcriptomics, and multiplex proteomics. Proof-of-concept studies employing CLDN1-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and genetic loss-of-function approaches were performed in state-of-the-art mouse models of PSC and cholangiopathies. Perturbation studies in human cell-based models were conducted to explore underlying mechanisms. In liver tissues from patients with PSC, CLDN1 expression was markedly upregulated and correlated with disease progression. Spatial transcriptomics and proteomics revealed elevated CLDN1 expression in diseased cholangiocytes and cholestatic periportal hepatocytes, accompanied by activation of pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrotic signaling pathways. Therapeutic administration of CLDN1-specific mAbs or genetic knockout improved liver function in PSC mouse models by reducing hepatobiliary fibrosis and cholestasis. Mechanistic studies indicated that mAb treatment inhibited pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrotic signaling in cholangiocytes and hepatocytes perturbed in PSC liver tissues. These findings demonstrate a functional role for CLDN1 in the pathogenesis of PSC and biliary fibrosis. In vivo proof-of-concept studies, combined with expression analyses in patients with PSC, support the clinical development of CLDN1-specific mAbs as a therapeutic strategy for PSC. Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic fibrosing cholangiopathy with limited therapeutic options. We identified the cell surface protein Claudin-1 as a key mediator and potential therapeutic target for PSC. In patients, Claudin-1 expression correlates with disease stage and clinical outcomes. Conditional liver epithelial-specific Claudin-1 knockout in mice reduced liver injury, fibrosis, and cholestasis. Monoclonal antibodies targeting Claudin-1 inhibited fibrosis, cholestasis, and the ductular reaction across advanced PSC mouse models by suppressing pro-inflammatory and fibrogenic signaling. These preclinical findings support the clinical development of Claudin-1-specific antibodies for PSC treatment and have significant implications for physicians, researchers, and drug developers in the field of biliary disease.

ABSTRACT Empowering leaders delegate authority, grant autonomy, and assign responsibilities to individuals or teams. Drawing on empowerment theory and self-determination theory (SDT), the present study hypothesizes that daily empowering leadership is related to employee work engagement through (a) psychological empowerment, and (b) the satisfaction of basic psychological needs. We collected data among 86 Norwegian Navy cadets during a 30-day transatlantic voyage (response = 97%; n = 2022 observations). Consistent with hypotheses, results of multilevel mediation path analysis showed that daily leader autonomy support and development support were positively related to daily employee work engagement through psychological empowerment and satisfaction of the needs for autonomy, relatedness, and competence. Moreover, leaders’ autonomy-supportive behaviour was most strongly related to psychological empowerment (not need satisfaction) and indirectly to work engagement when development support was high (vs. low). We discuss how these findings support and contribute to empowering leadership literature, as well as the practical implications.

Purpose This study examines how seasoned military officers in a Norwegian Command and Staff College leadership course conceptualize diversity leadership and whether they perceived the course as contributing to their understanding, despite the topic not being explicitly addressed. Design/methodology/approach Open-ended questionnaire responses from 13 participants were analyzed using thematic and lexical approaches. Findings The majority of officers conceptualized diversity leadership in business-case terms, emphasizing the value of differences in work-related competencies. A smaller proportion emphasized identity or demographic markers central to representational or social justice perspectives. Almost all participants reported learning about diversity leadership implicitly through the course. Originality/value Published empirical research on diversity leadership in military contexts is scarce and, to date, absent in Norway. This study provides original insights into how military leaders interpret diversity leadership and examines whether a course without explicit coverage of the topic contributed to their understanding.

This Research Topic presents novel and revived perspectives on the fundamental problems 49 underlying psychology's crises in replicability, validity, generalisability and thus, confidence 50 in its findings. Its 15 articles present critical analyses of established theories and practices 51 that are widely used in quantitative psychology and psychological 'measurement'. They 52show that, contrary to current beliefs, questionable research practices (QRPs) are just 53 surface-level symptoms of much more profound issues that are still hardly discussed. 54Uher, Arnulf, Barrett, Heene, Heine, Martin, Mazur, McGann, Mislevy, Speelman, 55Toomela and Weber argue that psychology's crises are rooted in the Questionable 56Research Fundamentals (QRFs) of many of its theories, concepts, approaches and methods 57 (e.g., of psychometrics), and therefore cannot be tackled by just remedying Questionable 58Research Practices (QRPs), as currently believed. The authors argue that advancing 59 psychology's theories and philosophies of science is essential for integrating its fragmented 60 empirical database and lines of research. To give new impetus to the current debates, they 61 provide a comprehensive multi-perspectival review of key problems in psychological 62 measurement, highlighting diverse philosophies of science (ontologies, epistemologies and 63 methodologies) that are used in quantitative psychology and pinpointing four major areas of 64 development.Luchetti explores psychological 'measurement' from a philosophical viewpoint. He 66 highlights that, without independent ways for assessing whether a given procedure does, 67 indeed, allow for measuring the intended target property, measurement inherently involves 68 epistemic circularity. From both a modern and a historically-situated perspective, he 69 analyses how Fechner tackled this problem in psychophysics. He shows that Fechner 70 developed a first successful step of a longer-term quantification process. Nevertheless, 71 findings about individuals' sensory perceptions of physical stimuli (e.g., sound) cannot be 72 generalised to perceptions of all psychical phenomena in lack of evident observable 73properties that can be connected to the psychical phenomena of interest. The author 74 discusses epistemic circularity as a useful conceptual tool to reflect on the criteria by which 75 measurement standards are regarded as successful in a scientific community. 76Kuhbandner and Mayerhofer evaluate limitations of experimental psychology. They 77 critically discuss the field's common assumption that the complexity of the human psyche 78 could be studied in experimentally controlled settings, enabling the study of law-like 79 behaviours reflective of isolated psychical 'mechanisms'. The authors highlight that even 80 minimal differences in the experimental setup, including differences regarded as irrelevant 81for a given study, can build up to large unsystematic effects. Moreover, the identification of 82 isolated 'mechanisms', if such were possible, could have no explanatory value given that the 83 psyche functions as a holistic system. They emphasise that non-mechanistic functioning of 84 the higher-order psychical processes cannot be studied experimentally. 199 With our compilation of research papers, we aim to contribute to and stimulate critical 200 debates on quantitative psychology and measurement. We hope that the revived and novel 201 perspectives discussed in these papers will provide good food for thought to motivate and 202 help psychologist to tackle the current challenges and advance psychology as a science. 203

Advanced Persistent Threats (APT) are stealthy multi-step attacks, often executed over an extensive time period and tailored for a specific attack target. APTs represent a “low and slow” type of cyberattack, meaning that they most often remain undetected until the consequence of the attack becomes evident. Energy infrastructure, including power grids, oil and gas infrastructure, offshore wind installations, etc., form the basis of a modern digital nation. In addition to loss of power, financial systems, banking systems, digital national services, etc., become non-operational without electricity. Loss of power from an APT cyberattack could result in loss of life and the possibility of creating digital chaos. Digital payments becomes unavailable, digital identification is affected, and even POS terminals need to run on emergency power, which is limited in time, resulting in challenges in paying for food and beverages. Examples of Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) targeting energy infrastructures include Triton, which in 2017 aimed to manipulate the safety systems of a petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, potentially leading to catastrophic physical consequences. Another significant incident is the Industroyer2 malware attack in 2022, which targeted a Ukrainian energy provider in an attempt to disrupt operations. The paper combines APT knowledge with energy infrastructure domain expertise, focusing on technical aspects while at the same time providing perspectives on societal consequences that could result from APTs.

IntroductionAs part of a Norwegian Ministry of Defence initiative, we examined the health records and mortality of veterans who served in Opération des Nations Unies au Congo (ONUC) from 1960 to 1964.Materials and MethodsWe manually searched personnel folders of ONUC veterans located in the National Archives in Oslo. After transcription and quality checks of the data, we employed descriptive statistics to examine the health records assessed before and after ONUC. We linked information from 640 veterans identified in the Norwegian National Population Register to the Causes of Death Registries to analyze their mortality. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) were calculated to compare the observed number of deaths among veterans to the expected deaths among all Norwegian men. Poisson regression analysis was used to compare mortality rates across different operation-related factors and expressed as relative risk.ResultsThe average birth year of ONUC veterans was 1931 and the average deployment year was 1962, with deployment typically lasting 6 months. Most veterans served in the Air Force (59.4%). Their health profiles remained so following the operation and over the years. The SMR for all-cause mortality was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.90), indicating lower mortality than the general male population. There was no elevated SMR for external causes (SMR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.50-1.15). We did not find any operation-related factors that were associated with mortality.ConclusionTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first epidemiological study using data from UN operations prior to 1978. While we experienced challenges in digitizing preserved paper-based health records for Norwegian ONUC veterans, we found that they generally had good health and lower mortality, suggesting a “healthy soldier effect.” Systematic follow-up for veterans is needed in order to preserve health data for future research and veteran welfare.

ABSTRACT In August 2021, Western troops withdrew from Afghanistan after 20 years of war. This article studies how the war was ascribed meaning in public debates in Norway, Sweden and Denmark and whether their self-image as do-gooders was disrupted in the immediate aftermath. An analysis of a selection of media articles illustrates that the war was primarily framed as a failed nation-building effort. In addition, frames that were less predominant and at times contradictory are found to have emphasized (1) contributing to social development or to inflict suffering in Afghanistan, (2) succeeding or failing to combat terrorism internationally and (3) enhancing national security and military professionalism at home. The article contends that this meaning-making contributed to upholding the Scandinavian do-gooder self-image through silences. By omitting the use of violence and ascribing mission failure to the US, NATO and the West in general, the Scandinavian countries’ role in the war was obscured.

Introduction: As the intelligence community observed the evolution of open-source intelligence (OSINT) and the development of the extensive data landscape, several new challenges to traditional approaches to warfighting emerged. One of these challenges was the increasing intensity of the illusory truth effect and its effects on operational timeline planning. How effective are these Emerging Disruptive Technologies (EDT)-driven open sources in projecting a battlespace deception, and what are the limitations and risks? To offer a substantive answer to this question, this study will use the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine as a case study specifically focusing on a projected deception using OSINT in support of the Ukrainian Kherson Offensive, which began on August 29, 2022, and the Kharkiv Offensive, which started in September 2022.Methods: The analysis aimed to identify and quantify instances where the Ukrainian deception storyline was repeated across various media outlets and social media platforms. It used an OSINT scraper to aggregate and filter the data. Then, a simple quantitative analysis was used to cross-reference the intensity of the illusory truth effect with the Russian operational timeline for troop movements, and a conclusion was drawn.Results: The number of ‘hits’ scrapped during a specific period was unexpectedly high, indicating a high level of engagement from both mobile and desktop devices. The data revealed a clear connection between increasing illusory truth intensity and Russian troop movements in the field. The study also pointed out the limitations of large-scale social media data in confidently establishing cause-and-effect relationships between influence and physical actions. It also demonstrated how the growing risk of the illusory truth effect, driven by OSINT and unrestricted military access to social media, could potentially compromise the compartmentalised operational command and control of military organisations through the personal devices of individuals involved in the command-and-control processes. Conclusion: In an information environment enhanced by EDT, the illusory truth effect is a powerful tool for deceptive projection in the information domain. This effect is amplified if access is gained to compartmentalised operational decision-making processes within the target warfighting organisation. Consequently, from an operational security perspective, the intelligence community must address the threat of an illusory truth breach of command & control processes via OSINT collection in an EDT-enhanced information environment.