Potomac River Fisheries Commission

Climate effects on hydrology impart high variability to water-quality properties, including nutrient loadings, concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Resolving long-term trends of these properties requires that we distinguish climate effects from secular changes reflecting anthropogenic eutrophication. Here, we test the hypothesis that strong climatic contrasts leading to irregular dry and wet periods contribute significantly to interannual variability of mean annual values of water-quality properties using in situ data for Chesapeake Bay. Climate effects are quantified using annual freshwater discharge from the Susquehanna River together with a synoptic climatology for the Chesapeake Bay region based on predominant sea-level pressure patterns. Time series of water-quality properties are analyzed using historical (1945–1983) and recent (1984–2012) data for the bay adjusted for climate effects on hydrology. Contemporary monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) provides data for a period since mid-1984 that is significantly impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, while historical data back to 1945 serve as historical context for a period prior to severe impairments. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) are developed for nutrient loadings and concentrations (total nitrogen—TN, nitrate + nitrate—NO2 + NO3) at the Susquehanna River and water-quality properties in the bay proper, including dissolved nutrients (NO2 + NO3, orthophosphate—PO4), chl-a, diffuse light attenuation coefficient (K D (PAR)), and chl-a/TN. Each statistical model consists of a sum of nonlinear functions to generate flow-adjusted time series and compute long-term trends accounting for climate effects on hydrology. We present results identifying successive periods of (1) eutrophication ca. 1945–1980 characterized by approximately doubled TN and NO2 + NO3 loadings, leading to increased chl-a and associated ecosystem impairments, and (2) modest decreases of TN and NO2 + NO3 loadings from 1981 to 2012, signaling a partial reversal of nutrient over-enrichment. Comparison of our findings with long-term trends of water-quality properties for a variety of estuarine and coastal ecosystems around the world reveals that trends for Chesapeake Bay are weaker than for other systems subject to strenuous management efforts, suggesting that more aggressive actions than those undertaken to date will be required to counter anthropogenic eutrophication of this valuable resource.

To better characterize Cryptosporidium in the Potomac River watershed, a PCR-based genotyping tool was used to analyze 64 base flow and 28 storm flow samples from five sites in the watershed. These sites included two water treatment plant intakes, as well as three upstream sites, each associated with a different type of land use. The uses, including urban wastewater, agricultural (cattle) wastewater, and wildlife, posed different risks in terms of the potential contribution of Cryptosporidium oocysts to the source water. Cryptosporidium was detected in 27 base flow water samples and 23 storm flow water samples. The most frequently detected species was C. andersoni (detected in 41 samples), while 14 other species or genotypes, almost all wildlife associated, were occasionally detected. The two common human-pathogenic species, C. hominis and C. parvum, were not detected. Although C. andersoni was common at all four sites influenced by agriculture, it was largely absent at the urban wastewater site. There were very few positive samples as determined by Environmental Protection Agency method 1623 at any site; only 8 of 90 samples analyzed (9%) were positive for Cryptosporidium as determined by microscopy. The genotyping results suggest that many of the Cryptosporidium oocysts in the water treatment plant source waters were from old calves and adult cattle and might not pose a significant risk to human health.

The concept of location coverage was first applied in the location set covering problem and then extended to the maximal covering location problem. Both of these problems were set in a deterministic framework in which the presence of a service site within the time or distance standard (geographic coverage) was taken as sufficient, even though the possibility existed of the only server within the standard being busy. To correct for this deficiency, Daskin structured the maximal expected covering model and Hogan and ReVelle created a model which maximized backup coverage. A model has now been created which deals explicitly in a chance-constrained sense with the availability of service. Further, this model uses local estimates of busy fractions in the zone around each demand area—in order to reflect more accurately the heterogeneity in service availability.

The value of existing federal water resources projects is estimated from historical construction costs. The value of improved operation of existing facilities is then estimated and shown to be at least as large as the value of new construction for the next 20 years. It is suggested that these improvements in operation of existing facilities can be obtained at about one percent of the cost of constructing new facilities to produce the same amount of benefits. Finally, recommendations are presented for reviewing and improving the operation of existing projects.