- Research Article
1
- 10.1093/sleep/zsaf090.0952
0952 Prevalence of Obstructive Sleep Apnea in the Elderly Across the United States Through 2050
- May 19, 2025
- SLEEP
- Elroy Boers + 9 more +9
Abstract Introduction Chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are associated with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). These conditions are more prevalent in older adults, who may be at heightened risk for OSA. Studies on OSA prevalence have primarily focused on individuals aged up to 70 years, leaving a significant gap in data regarding the population >70 years. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the prevalence of OSA in this group. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of OSA among older adults across the United States through 2050. Methods A dynamic open-cohort Markov model was constructed to simulate changes in population structure from 2020 to 2050. Parameters for population growth, the progression of OSA, body mass index (BMI) trajectories, all-cause mortality, and mortality linked to OSA and BMI were based on estimates from existing literature and were modeled across various subgroups categorized by age, sex, and BMI trends, updated every five years. OSA prevalence was adjusted according to age, sex, and BMI subgroups. The projection of OSA prevalence (defined as AHI >5) was focused on individuals aged 70-85 years. Results From 2020 to 2050, the prevalence of OSA in older adults is projected to increase substantially. The overall prevalence of OSA with AHI ≥ 5 is expected to rise by 136%, from 11.9 (33%) million cases in 2020 to 28.2 (53.7%) million cases in 2050. For older females, the prevalence of OSA (AHI ≥ 5) will see an increase of 159%, from 4.7 million (23% of females 70-85 years) cases in 2020 to 12.1 million (45.0%) cases in 2050. For older males, the increase will be more moderate than for females, with a rise of 121%, from 7.3 million (45.7%) cases in 2020 to 16.1 million (63.4%) cases in 2050. Conclusion The prevalence of OSA in older adults is expected to rise significantly through 2050, with the most pronounced increase among older females. The potential clinical implications of these findings highlight the need for targeted healthcare strategies in the United States to address the anticipated growth in OSA burden in the aging population. Support (if any) ResMed
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