Science Museum of Virginia

Surface air temperature is an important variable in quantifying extreme heat, but high-resolution temporal and spatial measurement is limited by sparse climate-data stations. As a result, hyperlocal models of extreme heat involve intensive physical data collection efforts or analyze satellite-derived land-surface temperature instead. We developed a geostatistical model that integrates in situ climate-quality temperature records, gridded temperature data, land-surface temperature estimates, and spatially consistent covariates to predict monthly averaged daily maximum surface-air temperatures at spatial resolutions up to 30 m. We trained and validated the model using data from North Carolina. The fitted model showed strong predictive performance with a mean absolute error of 1.61 ∘F across all summer months and a correlation coefficient of 0.75 against an independent hyperlocal temperature model for the city of Durham. We show that the proposed model framework is highly scalable and capable of producing realistic temperature fields across a variety of physiographic settings, even in areas where no climate-quality data stations are available.

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.6 °C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June–July–August and a much-reduced minimum (August–September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka. New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.

An analysis of the historical relationships of 19 river drainages (St. Lawrence to Altamaha) on the Atlantic slope of the Appalachian Mountains was conducted using the shared presence of 124 native species of cyprinid fishes. This analysis resulted in an area cladogram that suggests that the rivers of the southern Atlantic slope were historically connected to the drainage of three southern rivers (Flint, Chattahoochee, and Apalachicola) which drain into the Gulf of Mexico. The mid Atlantic and northern Atlantic slope rivers appear to be historically related in support of earlier hypotheses that the mid Atlantic region provided a refugium for fishes to disperse to the north following the retreat of the glacier and rising sea levels at the end of the Pleistocene. Methods for testing these conclusions are discussed.

Objectives are to determine the occurrence of species of Potamon in eastern Crete and the Aegean Islands (Chios, Naxos, Paros, Mykonos, Tinos and Andros); generate phylogenetic relationships among species to propose a biogeographic hypothesis relative to current distributions of the four species of the freshwater crab genus, Potamon, in Greece; and comment on the need to protect habitat suitable for the survival of species of Potamon in the country. Our collections, made in areas not previously sampled by researchers, indicate the presence of Potamon fluviatile on Tinos, N axos, and Andros, and Potamon potamios from central to eastern Crete; and verified the presence of Potamon ibericum on Chios. Cladistic analyses resulted in a single parsimonious tree (CI=85, RI=75). Potamon in the Balkan peninsula and islands in the Mediterranean region is a monophyletic group composed of two main clades: Clade 1 (P. fluviatile andPotamon algeriense) and Clade 2 (P. ibericum and its sister group composed of Potamon rhodium and Potamon potamios). Vicariant events (e.g. marine transgression and regression, orogeny, volcanism) are hypothesized as major factors that have shaped current distributions of species of Potamon in the Balkan Peninsula, Asia Minor, and the islands of the North Aegean Sea, Eastern Sporades, the Cyclades, and Crete. We recommend an increase in environmental education and communication among older and younger generations, agriculturalists, politicians, policy writers, land developers and economists to create an understanding for the need to protect land and aquatic environments that harbor unique species and the potential benefits for economic activities such as ecotourism. We also recommend the creation of an action plan to develop ecotourism around conservation areas ( e.g. from the source of existing springs downstream for about 200 m before the installation of water withdrawal equipment for irrigation and potable supplies) to generate revenue for funding protection initiatives and to promote green economic development that is ecologically and socio-culturally sustainable.