Skipton General Hospital

• Developed a national-scale, event-based framework to stress-testing road network resilience to flooding. • Integrated process-based approach to capture congestion, rerouting and isolation effects. • Indirect disruption losses exceed direct asset costs significantly for most flood events. • Single carriageway A roads and suburban bridges are critical for network resilience. • Rapid clearance and early speed restriction removal substantially reduce indirect flood impacts. Road infrastructure is facing increasing flooding risks, causing asset damage and disrupting traffic flows. Effective risk management requires integrated assessments that capture network vulnerability, disruption and recovery. While localised studies have simulated traffic disruptions, national-scale assessments have largely focused on flood exposure rather than systemic disruption analysis. We developed a modelling framework combining process-based flow model of passenger travel-to-work flows and applied it to stress-test Great Britain’s road networks against 17 historical flood events from 1953 to 2024. Results reveal significant variations between direct and indirect damage losses, with single carriageway A roads and suburban bridges emerging as critical points. Notably, indirect losses due to disruption and rerouting can be significantly higher than direct damages depending on hazard event. Early clearance and speed restriction removal are key to mitigating the overall indirect impacts. The model is generalisable and can be applied to stress-test other road networks and flood scenarios worldwide.

Abstract Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.

Abstract The risk of surface water flooding (SWF) in England is already high and its frequency and severity is projected to increase in the future. SWF generally occurs due to intense, highly localised rainfall, which is challenging to forecast with sufficient accuracy to take proactive action ahead of flood events. Being able to manage the risk effectively lies in improved rainfall and flood forecast products, better communication of uncertainty and building the capacity of local responders. This study utilises state‐of‐the‐art high‐resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts and hydraulic modelling tools alongside a novel post‐processing method to develop and trial new SWF forecast products within an incident workshop attended by forecast producers and regional forecast users. Twenty‐two of 24 workshop participants reported that the new information would be useful to their organisation but more product development and training in its interpretation is required. Specific recommendations to improve SWF forecast provision include increased support for local government through a single government organisation responsible for SWF, making more use of existing static SWF mapping in a real‐time context and employing the process of user‐based consultation, as outlined in this study, to guide the future development of future SWF forecast information and processes.

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.

ABSTRACTThe animal fauna of the Socotra Archipelago is influenced by three biogeographical regions, the Afrotropical, the Oriental and the Palaearctic. Consequently, the Archipelago shares faunal elements of these three regions in addition to unique endemic taxa. The ant fauna of Socotra Island was studied and is reviewed based on literature and newly collected material. In total, 28 species, belonging to 10 genera and four subfamilies, were collected from the main island. Eighteen of these (64%) are successful invasive species, seven are native (25%), and three are considered endemic (11%), Cardiocondyla longiceps Seifert, Monomorium elghazalyi sp. nov. and Monomorium nimihil Collingwood et al. Two genera are recorded for the first time from the island, Hypoponera Santschi, and Syllophopsis Santschi. Ten species are recorded for the first time, Cardiocondyla mauritanica Forel, Cardiocondyla minutior Forel, Monomorium atomum Forel, Monomorium dichroum Forel, Monomorium exiguum Forel, Pheidole pallidula (Nylander), Syllophopsis cryptobia (Santschi), Tetramorium pauper Forel, Tetramorium transformans Santschi and Hypoponera punctatissima (Roger). Ten invasive species are recorded from Socotra, reflecting human impacts on the Archipelago. These species are Tapinoma melanocephalum (Fabricius), Cardiocondyla emeryi Forel, Monomorium exiguum Forel, Pheidole indica Mayr, Syllophopsis cryptobia (Santschi), Tetramorium lanuginosum Mayr, Tetramorium simillimum (Smith), Tetramorium caldarium (Roger), Trichomyrmex destructor (Jerdon) and Trichomyrmex mayri (Forel). Our survey indicated a mixture of Afrotropical faunal elements (10 species, 36%), followed by cosmopolitan (nine species, 32%), Palaearctic (five species, 18%) and Oriental (four species, 14%) taxa. Two new synonyms of Monomorium exiguum Forel are proposed: Monomorium exiguum Forel = Monomorium baushare Collingwood & Agosti syn. nov. = Monomorium qarahe Collingwood & Agosti syn. nov. Tetramorium transformans Santschi is removed from synonymy with Tetramorium caldarium (Roger) and elevated to species rank. Ecological and biological notes for each species are given. Distribution maps for all species known from the Socotra Archipelago are provided.http://zoobank/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:89612083-9CE6-48E8-8975-1CE5334E098B

Cataglyphis fisheri sp. n. is described and illustrated from the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on the worker caste. It belongs to the Cataglyphis pallida-group which is recorded for the first time from the Arabian Peninsula. Cataglyphis fisheri sp. n. is similar to Cataglyphis pallida Mayr, 1877 from Kazakhstan. Differential diagnosis between these two species is given and a key to the species of the Cataglyphis pallida-group is presented. Cataglyphis laylae Collingwood, 2011 is treated as a junior synonym of Cataglyphis saharae Santschi, 1929. Cataglyphis flavobrunnea Collingwood & Agosti, 1996 is redescribed and a lectotype for this species is designated.

An overview is offered of the development of research—both archaeological and epigraphic—on the inhabitants of the northern Horn during the first millennium bc. Initially, reconstructions of this period placed considerable emphasis on links with southern Arabia and tended to group those into a single cultural category that was designated ‘Pre-Aksumite’. It is now argued that long-distance contacts were much less pervasive, being largely restricted to the elite, and that other aspects of life—including much material culture and subsistence economy—displayed strong local continuity from earlier times. Similarly, it is argued that interpretation of the epigraphic evidence as indicating a single ‘Pre-Aksumite’ state called D'MT is unjustified.

The First Africans: African Archaeology from the Earliest Toolmakers to Most Recent Foragers, by Lawrence Barham & Peter Mitchell, 2008. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; ISBN 978-0-521-84796-4 hardback £50 & US36.99; xvii+601 pp., 122 figs., 5 tables - Volume 19 Issue 3

BackgroundIn the year 2000 Corus closed its steel plant operations in Redcar, NE of England temporarily for refurbishment of its blast furnace. This study investigates the impact of the closure on the chemical composition and biological activity of PM10 collected in the vicinity of the steel plant.MethodsThe metal content of PM10 samples collected before during and after the closure was measured by ICP-MS in order to ascertain whether there was any significant alteration in PM10 composition during the steel plant closure. Biological activity was assessed by instillation of 24 hr PM10 samples into male Wistar rats for 18 hr (n = 6). Inflammation was identified by the cellular and biochemical profile of the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. Metal chelation of PM10 samples was conducted using Chelex beads prior to treatment of macrophage cell line, J774, in vitro and assessment of pro-inflammatory cytokine expression.ResultsThe total metal content of PM10 collected before and during the closure period were similar, but on reopening of the steel plant there was a significant 3-fold increase (p < 0.05) compared with the closure and pre-closure samples. Wind direction prior to the closure was predominantly from the north, compared to south westerly during the closure and re-opened periods. Of metals analysed, iron was most abundant in the total and acid extract, while zinc was the most prevalent metal in the water-soluble fraction. Elevated markers of inflammation included a significant increase (p < 0.01) in neutrophil cell numbers in the bronchoalveolar lavage of rats instilled with PM10 collected during the reopened period, as well as significant increases in albumin (p < 0.05). Extracts of PM10 from the pre-closure and closure periods did not induce any significant alterations in inflammation or lung damage. The soluble and insoluble extractable PM10 components washed from the reopened period both induced a significant increase in neutrophil cell number (p < 0.05) when compared to the control, and these increases when added together approximately equalled the inflammation induced by the whole sample. PM10 from the re-opened period stimulated J774 macrophages to generate TNF-α protein and this was significantly prevented by chelating the metal content of the PM10 prior to addition to the cells.ConclusionPM10-induced inflammation in the rat lung was related to the concentration of metals in the PM10 samples tested, and activity was found in both the soluble and insoluble fractions of the particulate pollutant.