Timber Research and Development Association (United Kingdom)

Intermarket analysis studies interrelationships between various related markets. Standard correlations between markets are not useful if our goal is to either predict future prices or generate profitable signals because current correlation does not tell us anything about future prices. A methodology we originally developed in the mid 1990's called intermarket divergence allows us to gauge the predictive power of an intermarket relationship and produce 100% objective signals. During the past 17 years we have used this methodology to develop trading systems which have produced robust and reliable trading signals even 17 years after the models were originally developed without any re-optimization. Other methodologies of processing intermarket relationships to develop trading signals might perform as well during in sample periods, but do not perform as well during walk forward period and during real trading. In this paper we will explain intermarket divergence and show how this methodology can be applied to a wide range of markets and how it performs better out of sample than other methodologies. Next we will analyze this methodology closer and try to understand why it works so well and how this basic methodology can be improved. The Intermarket divergence concept is also easy to enhance with various machine learning methods such as neural networks, SVM or rough sets. We will lay out a framework for this analysis.

Dense tropical hardwoods are commonly used in maritime and river structures because they have the necessary strength and display some required durability including good resistance to abrasion and to attack by marine borers. Owing to environmental concerns about the sustainability of forest products, responsible procurement regimes now require that tropical hardwoods are certified from a sustainable and legal origin. However, timber is generally selected from a restricted number of species with proven track records of in-service performance, for example greenheart and ekki. There are concerns that over-reliance on a small number of timber species is exerting disproportionate environmental pressure on these species in their forests of origin and could encourage removal of timber that is not produced legally or sustainably. The present research sought to find alternative lesser-used timber species that are commercially available, can be legally and sustainably sourced and would display appropriate performance for maritime and riverine applications. A desk study first established a long list of potential lesser-used timber species. These were screened for resistance to attack by maritime gribble and to abrasion. The resulting shortlist of candidate species has been screened for resistance to shipworm through in situ exposure at a site known for its aggressive shipworm population. In addition to these results, the proposed approach to assess the actual full-scale performance of lesser-used timber species is introduced

Article published in the Journal of Science and Technology, Vol. 29, No. 2, Aug., 2009, pp 34-45

According to ISO 3274 form errors can be removed by fitting a polynomial regression through the original measured data called the total profile to obtain the primary profile. For wood surfaces it was found that the regression was affected by the presence of deep and grouped pores. To obtain a primary profile free of distortion, the deep pores can be removed from the total profile prior to applying the regression. A method was developed that eliminated the pores entirely. The efficacy of this method was tested visually and by comparing coefficients of determination r2 between the polynomial regression according to ISO 3274 (1996) and the total profile and the modified regression line when the effect of deep pores was removed and the modified profile that had no pores. The influence of the shape of the primary profile obtained by the standard method in ISO 3274 (1996) on further digital processing was tested on roughness profiles filtered with a Robust Gaussian Regression Filter. The undistorted primary profile was taken as a reference.

During the early 'sixties trussed rafters were introduced from North America, where they had been widely and successfully used in conjunction with plywood sarking. The omission of such sarking in Britain left trussed rafter roofs without adequate bracing, and by the late 'sixties some problems were beginning to arise. Sometimes the trussed rafters viewed on plan gradually adopted an ‘S’ shape, so that while the roof at the ridge and eaves remained in position, the rest of the roof moved longitudinally in opposite directions on either side of the ridge. In other cases where the strength of the gable walls was inadequate, the ridge line itself moved, with corresponding movement of the walls.