United States Energy Information Administration

Previous empirical work has shown that real natural gas prices have a negligible impact on total U.S. industrial production and most of its sub-indices. We reassess these conclusions using a multivariate framework and a time-frame that includes recent developments in the U.S. natural gas market. Our results show that natural gas does affect U.S. economic activity, primarily through changes in its production. The shale gas revolution has changed this relationship—a one percentage point increase in natural gas supply raises total U.S. industrial production by more after 2008 than before.

Administrative records are increasingly being used by Federal agencies in lieu of, to augment, or as a quality control tool for survey data. As agencies’ use and reliance on administrative records grow, it becomes increasingly important to understand how the data are assembled, organized, managed, and reported. This paper will focus on answering the question: “How does the mode in which administrative records are reported or obtained from record-keeping entities affect the quality of those data?” We analyze the data from the Energy Supplier Survey (ESS) of the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). During the ESS, administrative records are reported by companies who supply energy to the households surveyed for the RECS. Respondents self-select mode from a fixed set of mode options, the most common being online teleform, electronic file submission, and paper/pen. Reported data were edited by analysts using tools such as bills collected during the household interview. In this paper we explore whether the reporting mode had an effect on the number of edit failures and errors in the data, by controlling for factors such as number of administrative records reported. We find that errors in the data did differ by the mode selected by the respondent.

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

The international discussion about global climate change now revolves around what the necessary set of policies and technologies will be needed to realize reduction goals. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at 450 to 550 parts per million will require policy changes along with innovation and large-scale adoption of GHG-reducing technologies throughout the global energy system. Innovations will need to be supported by international cooperation and behavioral changes to further realize the benefits of technological advances. Much discussion has therefore focused on policies that target technology directly, including research and development (R&D) activities and technology-specific incentives, as well as policies and agreements that increase diffusion and adoption. This paper reviews the recent literature on trends and prospects for innovation in climate change mitigation, to identify the most important international and domestic actions necessary to technologically alter energy systems in a direction that can achieve GHG stabilization targets while also meeting other societal goals. It provides an overview of key technical issues associated with the development, diffusion, and adoption of technologies that mitigate climate change. It examines the role of environment and innovation policy measures to encourage innovation, and it outlines the conditions that trigger these advances. The review highlights that establishing a GHG emission price is essential from a technology perspective. Such a price should be coupled with public R&D support. The review discusses policy features that impact on environmentally oriented R&D, the diffusion of environmental innovations, their deployment in developing countries. In particular, the paper outlines the positive role of international technology-oriented agreements as part of the architecture of an international climate change policy.