Vienna Institute of Demography

Several studies have analyzed the relationship between educational attainment and fertility across countries, identifying significant differences. However, these works often overlook intra-country variation, which may play an important role in moderating that relationship. This study examines the heterogeneity in the educational gradient of fertility across Spain, a context characterized by lowest-low and latest-late fertility. Using data from the 2011 Spanish census, we reconstruct the reproductive history of 656,248 women aged 25-50, of whom 403,140 had become mothers. This large sample allows to analyze the educational gradient in first motherhood across Spanish provinces. To do so, we apply mixture cure models, which enable us to differentiate between the occurrence and the timing of the transition. The results reveal substantial regional variability in the educational gradient for both dimensions, although the association between the gradients in occurrence and timing is weak across space. We further find that cross-province variation in the educational gradient in the timing of the transition is largely driven by the heterogeneous behavior of non-university educated women, a pattern not observed for occurrence. Finally, we identify a negative association between the educational gradient and the province's GDP per capita, particularly strong for the timing of the transition.

Abstract Aim Cognitive functioning is essential for leading a self-determined life at old age. However, loneliness is considered a risk factor for cognitive health and is on the rise in ageing societies. This study examines the relationship between loneliness and cognitive functioning, investigates short-term and long-term consequences, and explores regional differences across Europe. Subject and methods Using panel data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from over 34,000 individuals aged 50+ in 14 European countries and Israel with at least four participation rounds, we estimated cross-lagged panel models with fixed effects studying the relation between loneliness and memory performance, controlling for other known risk factors, such as social isolation, age, depressive symptoms, and physical activity. Results We found that older people experiencing loneliness have reduced memory performance. In addition, current loneliness still affects cognitive functioning two years later. European regions differed in this relation, with the strongest association found in Northern Europe, and in countries with lower levels of loneliness. This might be due to higher stress caused by experiencing loneliness in countries where loneliness is less common. Conclusion Loneliness is negatively associated with both current and future memory performance. Country characteristics, such as the general loneliness level in a country, can modify this relation. Loneliness in later life is a risk factor for cognitive health but is modifiable, providing an impetus for political and societal efforts to reduce loneliness.

BackgroundMedication abortion (MA) may be accessed covertly in private pharmacies and clinics due to abortion-related stigma. Stigmatization may lead to information asymmetry, resulting in price discrimination. The existing literature on abortion in Ghana has primarily focused on factors associated with abortion stigma. However, the potential variations in MA cost have not been explored. Thus, we aim to explore the potential disparities in MA cost based on women’s socio-demographic status in Ghana.MethodsWe used data from a study that recruited women who accessed MA using mifepristone and misoprostol combination from selected private pharmacies and clinics in Ghana. The study employed a non-inferiority and prospective design, and women were recruited as they exited the selected facilities after obtaining the MA pills. Our final analysis included 929 pharmacy clients and 1,045 clinic clients. To understand the variability in MA cost, we initially conducted two decomposition analyses using the variance and Blinder-Oaxaca techniques, followed by linear regressions to identify the socio-demographic factors that predict MA cost.ResultsThe average costs of MA were approximately US$ 46.00 and US$ 24.00 for the clinic and pharmacy groups, respectively. Additionally, the cost varied between pharmacy and clinic groups and within each group. A greater segment of the variation among the clinic group stemmed from between facilities (78 percent), whereas, among the pharmacies, the bigger share came from within facilities (57 percent). Regression results further indicate that the cost of MA increased among women with higher education, those who have not been in a union with a partner and those who accessed MA in clinics.ConclusionsMA cost in Ghana is largely based on providers' discretion and at the facility's management level. Additionally, the cost differs by women’s socio-demographic attributes. To reduce the disparities in MA costs, developing guidelines to address the health system challenges regarding MA provision and access is important. Educational programs on MA access, provision and legal framework could also reduce abortion-related stigma and cost variations.

Abstract In a climate-constrained world, understanding the energy required to achieve universal access to modern energy is critical. This requires making assumptions on future population trajectories. Although access to modern energy can affect population dynamics, this feedback has not yet been accounted for in demographic models. Access to modern energy leads to fertility declines as it reduces child mortality, improves health, increases women’s access to information, education and employment. In this paper we present a demographic model that endogenizes the effect of increased access to modern energy on population dynamics and estimates the size of this effect on total final energy use by households for the case of Zambia. To do so, we built a microsimulation model to project future population size and composition, accounting for how fertility depends on access to modern energy and education. We used these population projections to then estimate household energy demand of the Zambian population until 2070, under different scenarios. We found that in 2070, while electricity consumption is higher in a universal access scenario compared to a baseline scenario, total energy demand is 29% lower, partly due to a strong decline in the use of inefficient traditional cooking fuels. We also found that reduced population growth due to universal energy access contributes to lowering the energy demand by 56% by 2050, compared to a more limited expansion in energy access, and this contribution increases over time. Although the challenge of achieving universal access to modern energy seems daunting, our results suggest that this could have co-benefits with achieving climate goals. Our study also reveals that accounting for the energy–population dividend in energy models will scale down the currently assumed energy needs to ensure a decent life for all.

While female education has long been recognized as a key driver of fertility decline during the process of demographic transition and most population projection models consider it implicitly or explicitly in their forecasts of overall fertility, there still is need for a method to forecast education-specific fertility trends directly. Here we propose a method for projecting education-specific fertility declines for cohorts of women in Sub-Saharan Africa based on all available demographic and health surveys data for African countries (including 1.03Mio cases). We study at different levels of aggregation (sample clusters, strata, and national) the associations between ideal family size and completed cohort fertility for education groups, on the one hand, and the average level of education in those units, on the other. The consistently very strong empirical associations suggest a plausible narrative by which a higher prevalence of educated women in a spatial unit influences the fertility levels of women in all specific education categories. Empirical associations between education-specific cohort fertility trends at the national level and newly available quality-adjusted human capital data for these cohorts are then operationalized to produce education-specific population projections as they are needed for-among other uses-the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios that are widely used in the climate change research community. Sensitivity analyses including out-of-sample projections support the validity of the proposed method which is then applied to 37 African countries.

This paper focuses on age restrictions on access to infertility treatments and eligibility for their public reimbursement, exploring their relevancy in contexts of rising late birth rates (40+). I explore how age-based reimbursement policies for in vitro fertilization treatments have responded to these fertility trends in 27 high-income countries and in which regulatory frameworks for medically assisted reproduction (MAR) very late births (45+) have particularly increased. First, I show that while age limits for treatment reimbursement are well aligned with the prevalence of late fertility in some national contexts, in most countries, strict age restrictions are lagging behind the rise in late births. In others, pronatalist policies have prompted permissive age criteria or law revisions, anticipating or adapting to rising trends in late births. Second, the rise in very late births has been limited in some contexts with strict age-based rules. However, the analysis suggests that the impact of MAR on very late births may also be influenced by contextual factors other than regulations.

High-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to ( a ) describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, ( b ) assess its potential economic consequences, ( c ) discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, ( d ) propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impacts of low fertility, and ( e ) draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.

This paper explores the relationship between access legislation of Medically Assisted Reproduction (MAR) and public attitudes towards family structures in Europe. It contributes to understanding the contextual frameworks that may facilitate the formation of a family outside the different-sex couple norm. The permissiveness of MAR policies has received political attention due to its potential to revolutionize family formation, with varying regulatory routes among states regarding access for single individuals and same-sex couples. We particularly examine regulatory trends in granting MAR access to single women and lesbian couples in Europe, and how legislation aligns with attitudes towards single motherhood and same-sex parenthood. Utilizing descriptive analysis and two-level models on original MAR legislation data across 36 European countries and the European Values Study (2008–10 and 2017–20) for attitudes, we show that MAR access is granted to lesbian couples in contexts where same-sex parenthood is accepted. By contrast, legalized MAR access for single women seems rather disconnected from public opinion towards single motherhood. As a whole, the paper delineates contexts in which the combination of social acceptance and legal permissibility of MAR use for non-normative prospective parents may favor the formation of ‘new’ family forms.

Several countries nowadays and in the past face a birth rates below replacement level. To what extent should the fertility of this shrinking population be increased during a given planning period such that it approaches stationarity at the end as close as possible? Both immediate adaptation to the replacement level as well as delaying it to the end of the planning period are suboptimal. Distributed parameter optimal control theory provides an appropriate tool to ascertain the efficient intertemporal trade-off between costly birth control and zero population growth. It turns out that the optimal adaptation rate of the net reproduction rate (NRR) balances between unacceptable adjustment costs for fertility and huge deviations of the terminal age composition from the desired stationary one. The optimal adaptation rate is monotonically increasing with a curvature that depends on the growth rates of the NRR, the fertile population, and the value of newborns. The paper analytically characterizes the shape of the transition to a stationary population in an optimal way.

About 50 years ago, Keyfitz (1971) asked how much further a growing human population would increase if its fertility rate were immediately to be reduced to replacement level and remain there forever. The reason for demographic momentum is an age–structure inertia due to relatively many potential parents because of past high fertility. Although nobody expects such a miraculous reduction in reproductive behavior, a gradual decline in fertility in rapidly growing populations seems inevitable. As any delay in fertility decline to a stationary level leads to an increase in the momentum, it makes sense to think about the timing and the quantum of the reduction in reproduction. More specifically, we consider an intertemporal trade-off between costly pro- and anti-natalistic measures and the demographic momentum at the end of the planning period. This paper uses the McKendrick–von Foerster partial differential equation of age–structured population dynamics to study a sketched problem in a distributed parameter control framework. Among the results obtained by applying an appropriate extension of Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle are the following: (i) monotony of adaptation efforts to net reproduction rate and convex decrease/concave increase (if initial net reproduction rate exceeds 1/is below 1); and (ii) oscillating efforts and reproduction rate if, additionally, the size of the total population does not deviate from a fixed level.