Whaleman Foundation

ABSTRACT Photo‐identification (photo‐ID) is a widely used, non‐invasive method for monitoring individual animals, including humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ; HBWs), and has provided valuable insights into their population dynamics, movement patterns, and social structures. Traditional identification relies on the trailing edge and ventral pigment patterns of the tail fluke (fluke‐ID); however, not all whales present their flukes, limiting identification and re‐sighting opportunities. We developed a novel aerial‐identification (aerial‐ID) approach using drone imagery to identify individual HBWs based on the arrangement of two features, tubercles (TB) and cookiecutter shark scars (CCS). Between January and March 2022, we sampled 1498 HBWs, including repeated individuals, capturing fluke‐ID images for 772 and aerial‐ID images for 1437. Fluke‐ID yielded 164 re‐sightings (76 lactating females, 88 others), while aerial‐ID yielded 372 (249 and 123, respectively), representing a 227% increase for lactating females and 40% for others. We extended this approach to a multi‐year, cross‐regional dataset (2018–2025) of 54 individuals verified with fluke‐ID. All were matched using aerial‐ID, with the longest re‐sight spanning 2737 days (6.5 years), representing the maximum interval within our study period. Aerial‐ID thus offers a powerful complement to fluke‐ID, expanding demographic coverage, increasing re‐sighting rates, and enabling long‐term, cross‐regional monitoring.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a warming ocean on marine organisms, large-scale projections of climatic variables are crucial. Global models are of 0.25 - 1° (~25-100 km) resolution, and not ideal to predict localized changes. Here, we provide 0.05° resolution (~5 km) sea surface temperature (SST) projections, statistically downscaled using the delta method. We illustrate the shifting isotherms of the critical 21 and 28°C boundaries, which border the climatic envelope that humpback whales prefer for their breeding grounds, over the course of the 21st century on a decadal temporal resolution. Results show by the end of the 21st century, 35% of humpback whale breeding areas will experience SSTs above or within 1°C of current thresholds if present-day social, economic, and technological trends continue (‘middle of the road’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP2-RCP4.5). This number rises to 67% under the scenario describing rapid economic growth in carbon-intensive industries (‘fossil-fueled development’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP5-RCP8.5). These projections highlight the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing further SST increases to preserve ecological integrity of humpback whale breeding areas. In this context, our results emphasize the need to focus on protection of critical ocean habitat and to provide high-resolution climate data for this purpose.

Tourism activities are expanding in both terrestrial and marine environments, which can have detrimental effects on the target species. Balancing the amount of disturbance a population of animals receives against the educational value of tourism requires localised research and adaptive management. This study examined the distribution of humpback whales within Hervey Bay, Queensland, using data spanning 2004–16, just before the implementation of a commercial ‘swim-with-whales’ program. Spatial and temporal patterns of humpback whale calves were of particular interest given that they are more vulnerable to human-related disturbances than other group types. We found that humpback whales displayed a distinct spatial segregation in Hervey Bay based on pod composition. Most whales displayed a residency time of two to three days, with females having a somewhat shorter residency time than males. These findings suggest that humpback whales in Hervey Bay not only display temporal segregation dependent on maturation and reproductive status, but fine-scale spatial distribution based on pod composition. Understanding habitat preference and patterns of habitat use of humpback whales in Hervey Bay is critical for effective management of the newly sanctioned swim-with-whale tourism in Hervey Bay and the sustained recovery of humpback whales in this region.