SpatiotemporalEvolution and Driving Factors of CarbonEmissions in China’s Photovoltaic Industry
Photovoltaic (PV) technology is the core pathway foraddressingglobal climate change and advancing energy system decarbonization,yet the rapid expansion of PV manufacturing capacity has triggereda surge in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, sparking mountingconcerns. We integrated multisource heterogeneous data from China’sPV industry (2005–2024) to develop a life-cycle accountingframework, which quantifies industrial carbon emissions and theirevolutionary patterns across production stages and multiscale spatiotemporaldimensions. We also deconstructed the emission impacts of scale, technology,and structural factors, and predicted future trends. Over two decades,China’s PV industry-wide carbon emissions soared from 0.24to 205 million tonnes, while product-level emission intensity plummetedfrom 1,300 to 380 kg CO2eq/kWp. The contribution of technologicalprogress to emission reduction rose from about 3% of the observedincrease in emissions in 2005–2007 to nearly 100% in 2020–2024.Spatially, raw material and monocrystalline cell production have shiftedinland for cost advantages, while module assembly remains concentratedin coastal hubs like the Yangtze River Delta. Capacity utilization,grid decarbonization, and technical learning will dictate future emissions.Against surging global PV demand, coordinated capacity planning, acceleratedtech progress, optimized spatial distribution, and established incentivepolicies are pivotal to steering China’s PV manufacturing ontoa sustainable low-carbon path.
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