Совершенствование методологии определения расчетных величин пожарного риска в зданиях и сооружениях на основе стохастического описания определяющих их процессов и деревьев событий

The article raised the question of the formation and development of the system of categorization of premises and buildings of industrial and warehouse use on fire and explosion hazards. The role of this system in the development of regulatory requirements for fire safety is noted. It is shown that, despite more than 75 years history improve the criteria and methods for determining the category currently contentious issues still are remained, and ambiguous interpretation of certain provisions of Set of rules 12.13130.2009 is allowed. With the entry into force of the Federal law No. 123 Technical regulations about requirements of fire safety and the introduction of such a criterion of fire safety of objects of protection as the value of the individual fire risk the current system of categorization has become largely obsolete. Methods for determining the categories of premises and determine the design value of the fire risk, pursuing, in general, a single objective-to assess the level of fire hazard protection object and define the list of requirements of fire safety, sometimes give a different result that calls into question efficiency of a lot of positions of normative documents on fire safety. Consideration of these requirements through the prism of ensuring the standard value of fire risk, questioned the objectivity of the existing criteria categorization, as a tool to measure the level of threat to life and health of people in the building. The article presents examples that demonstrate that the categories of premises or buildings on the fire and explosion hazards often do not allow to assess the real fire hazard of production.

This article presents the results of the assessment of compliance with fire safety requirements of the building of the poultry house for 200,000 heads of Avangard LLC of the Republic of Mordovia, made on the basis of fire risk calculations. The analysis of factors affecting the quality and reliability of the results of calculations is carried out. During the research and evaluation of the objects compliance with fire safety requirements were guided by the provisions of the Technical regulations on fire safety requirements. A list of technical regulations applicable to the object under study was defined. The article gives the fire-technical characteristics of the object under study, the class of functional fire hazard (agricultural buildings). The conducted research has established that the object of research meets the requirements of fire safety. Calculations on fire risk assessment were fulfilled by comparing the calculated values of fire risk with the normative value. For the considered object of protection the fire hazard analysis including the analysis of building characteristics (space-planning, design and technical solutions), fire protection systems, and features of functioning taking into account contingent and distribution of fire load in rooms was completed. The calculation of the risk of the gas supply system was considered the impact of the flame during the combustion of gas released in case of emergency depressurization of the pipeline. The potential risk in a poultry house near a gas pipeline with a diameter of 50 mm will be 1.7810-5, near a gas pipeline with a diameter of 70 mm - 4.410-7, and in total - 1.82410-5. The individual fire risk for employees of the poultry house building is 8.3110-7 year-1. Calculations of the spread of fire hazards and the time of evacuation of people are made using software that allows to create graphical models of space-planning solutions of buildings. With the introduction of the fire risk assessment system at the legislative level, the owners of objects have the opportunity to optimize the cost of fire safety with the required level of safety of people.

The article presents the main results of the study of fire risks in different countries and territorial units of Russia in 2014, as well as their trends in a some countries. The study is accompanied by a large number of graphic material, helps the perception of statistical data analysis. The major fire risk are considered: the number of fires per 1000 inh. per year, the number of fire deaths per 100 fires and number of fire deaths per 100 thous. inh. per year. All presented demonstrated the risks of fire danger levels in a given administrative territorial unit (city, region, country), and allow to compare the levels in different areas and explore their temporal trends. At the international level, the analysis of fire risks presented for 35 countries of the world in 2014. The greatest values of fire risk have Latvia, the Netherlands, Estonia and Austria, the lowest values - Vietnam, Japan, Liechtenstein and Kyrgyzstan. The highest values of the fire death risk are observed in Belarus, Russia, Moldova and Ukraine, the lowest values - in Western Europe and Asia. On the inside of the Russian level shows the distribution of the fire risks by the regional centers and by the subjects of the Russian Federation. The greatest values of fire risk have the Far East District, the lowest values - the North Caucasus region and Moscow. The situation is similar to the fire death risk. The study shows the trends of the fire death risk in 6 countries (the Soviet Union, Russia, the US, China, Britain and Germany) for 55 years in the period from 1959 to 2014. It is shown how various changes in society (political, socio-economic, fire safety issues) affected to the change of fire risks in the countries represented. On the basis of the analyzed distributions of fire risks demonstrated significant differences in the parameters of the fire situation between different countries and in the territorial units of the Russian Federation.

This study deals with ensuring fire safety in buildings of a cluster animal industrial complex by optimizing legislative measures and analyzing factors that affect the quality and reliability of the results of calculating fire risk. The research involved the following methods: expert assessment; calculating individual fire risk; modeling evacuation of people in the form of an individual flow model of human traffic. The conceptual features of the complex's buildings required developing the design and technical solutions that would reduce inefficient costs on the one hand, and, on the other, would ensure meeting fire safety requirements. The individual fire risk for employees of the asset to be protected is 2.91 ×10-7 per year-1 (0.291 ×10-6 per year). That is, it does not exceed the characteristic value established by Federal law No. 123-FZ dated 22.07.2008 'Technical regulations on fire safety'. After the introduction of the fire risk assessment system at the legislative level, the owners of objects have received the opportunity to optimize the cost of fire safety and the required level of human safety.

Introduction. The current Russian Regulation on classification of hotels hardly takes into account their fire safety conditions. The system, adopted in the Regulation, provides for an expert scoring assessment of hotel parameters for their assignment to a certain category (star rating). The purpose of the article is to develop methods that allow determining the level of fire safety of hotels in points commensurate with the accepted rating system, for its further use in the course of assignment of appropriate categories to hotels. Theoretical fundamentals of scoring methods of assessment of fire safety of hotels. Three approaches to the calculation of «fire points» of hotels have been developed, based on the breakdown of hotels into classes and identification of the fire safety index of hotels within one class. The first scoring method is the Gretener method used for calculating the integral fire safety index. The first and third quartiles are identified for the hotel statistics. Hotels, whose index does not exceed the first quartile, belong to the subgroup featuring a high level of fire safety; those ranging from the first (inclusively) to the third quartile belong to the medium level. If the values of the fire hazard index of hotels are not smaller than the third quartile, they belong to the subgroup that has a low level of fire safety. The second method is based on the use of a «safety reserve» in terms of evacuation time. The third model of assessing the fire hazard of hotels includes the breakdown of hotels into groups, identification of the value of individual fire risk, ranking hotels by the fire risk that varies from the lowest to the highest.Results and their discussion. As for the classification of hotels, problems that accompany the consolidation of the physical approach to the fire hazard assessment with the expert method of scoring are solved by choosing the proportion between the points of the system and the «fire points» set by the adjustment coefficient. The fire points, assigned to the subgroups of hotels, are indicative and should be corrected within the framework of the proposed approach.Conclusions. The experimental application of the developed methods using the cases of real hotel facilities will allow choosing the optimal engineering method of taking into account the fire safety of hotels in the process of their classification.

After the extraction of oil, its processing and the production of various liquid petroleum products (gasoline, diesel fuel, lubricants and various solvents), there is a significant need for their temporary storage with subsequent sale to consumers. For this purpose, special complex facilities are being created, which ensure not only the temporary preservation of oil and oil products, but also their reception from producers and sale to consumers. A large amount of flammable substances stored in tanks creates a high fire hazard in tank farms. Fires that occur cause significant material damage and often lead to the death of people/ Currently, a lot of attention is paid to fire prevention and emergency prevention. The oil and gas industry is one of the areas where events occur with a high frequency and where almost all facilities are classified as dangerous production facilities. One of the causes of fires and accidents in the oil and gas industry: self-ignition of pyrophoric deposits, which accounts for 12.8% of the total number of ignition sources. Most of the fires due to spontaneous ignition of pyrophoric deposits occur in spring and autumn, when cleaning is carried out in the vertical steel tanks for the storage of oil and petroleum products. The increased danger of maintaining tank and other equipment in the presence of pyrophoric deposits on their walls requires the use of a set of measures that ensure, on the one hand, the prevention of their spontaneous ignition, and on the other hand, the prevention of situations where an explosion and fire could occur when pyrophoric deposits igniteю. At paper quantitative evaluation of the risk of fires on vertical stainless tanks for contain oil and petroleum products from auto-ignition of pyrophoric deposits is given. The statistics on fires in tanks for contain oil and petroleum products from auto-ignition of pyrophoric deposits and distribution of fires by months from 2012 to 2022 are presented. Data are given about the period of the most frequent occurrence of fires in oil tank from the spontaneous combustion of pyrophoric deposits after the elimination of the previous fire in the oil tank for the same reason. The obtained risk values ​​indicate the need for preventive measures in months such as February, April, May, June, and September. Special attention should be paid to fire prevention in May, as the value of fire risk on tanks due to spontaneous ignition of pyrophoric deposits is 0.9966, which indicates a high frequency of fires in this month according to the obtained values.

ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ СПАСЕНИЯ ЛЮДЕЙ КАК ФАКТОР СНИЖЕНИЯ ИНДИВИДУАЛЬНОГО ПОЖАРНОГО РИСКА В ОБЩЕСТВЕННЫХ ЗДАНИЯХ

In the context of armed aggression against Ukraine, the need to create an extensive network of rehabilitation centers for those injured and in need of medical and psychological support has increased. Such institutions combine the functions of medical buildings, dormitories, and social adaptation centers. There is a steady negative trend towards an increase in the number of fires in public buildings, in particular in healthcare facilities and rehabilitation centers. It has been established that the frequency of fires in rehabilitation facilities has an increasing trend. The increase in the number of patients due to the war leads to a more intensive use of electrical and heating systems. In conditions of energy instability, additional energy sources are actively used - generators, batteries, heating devices, which significantly increases the risk of fire. Some buildings do not meet modern fire safety requirements due to outdated structures and an imperfect fire protection system. The increase in the number of fires leads to an increase in the level of individual and collective fire risk, especially given the limited evacuation possibilities of low-mobility population groups. This requires improving fire risk assessment methods and developing a comprehensive fire safety management system for rehabilitation centers. The improved approach proposed in the article involves integrating the probability of death or injury into the calculation of individual fire risk, which makes the assessment more adapted to real-world conditions. The increase in the number and consequences of fires not only increases the relevance of developing integrated fire safety management systems in rehabilitation centers, but also requires a transition to a risk-oriented model with an emphasis on preventive measures, modernization of fire protection systems, and development of evacuation algorithms. A feature of the functioning of such facilities is the presence of a large number of people with limited mobility, the use of special medical equipment and placement in outdated buildings that were designed without taking into account modern fire safety requirements. Therefore, factors of increased fire risk are: the use of old buildings, limited possibilities for evacuating patients, high density of people in wards, threats associated with the possibility of damage to buildings during massive shelling. However, there are practically no comprehensive studies dedicated specifically to rehabilitation centers. The issue of providing modern fire protection systems also remains problematic. Some rehabilitation centers are located in buildings that were not originally intended for medical use, or in outdated buildings that lack automatic fire extinguishing systems, smoke extraction, and proper evacuation exits. In conditions of war and massive shelling, external damage to buildings has become an additional risk factor, which increases the risk of fire and complicates timely evacuation. Thus, the scientific and practical problem is the need to develop a methodology for assessing fire risks, adapted specifically for rehabilitation centers. Such a methodology should take into account the characteristics of patients, the density of people, evacuation restrictions, architectural and planning direction, as well as the level of technical support for fire-fighting systems. Its implementation will allow forming an adequate risk management strategy, increasing the safety of patients and staff, and ensuring compliance with modern standards of a risk-oriented approach

Introduction. According to the Methodology for Determining Estimated Fire Risk Values at Industrial Facilities, the calculation of individual fire risks is carried out using the value of the corresponding potential fire risk as an intermediate value. Social fire risk is defined as the frequency of events leading to the death of 10 or more people, therefore, when the initial data on the location and number of people changes, it is necessary to recalculate for all scenarios, which is very labor intensive. In this regard, it is of interest to find a way to simplify the calculations performed, allowing for assessing the social fire risk based only on the known field of potential risk. Aims and purposes. The aim of the work is to develop a method that allows, based on the values of potential fire risk, to determine the maximum possible value of social fire risk, taking into account the number of people near the industrial facility. Methods. The methods of elementary algebra, arithmetic, probability theory, and mathematical logic were used for the study. Results and discussion. The paper shows a significant drawback of the known method and proposes a new method that allows assessing social fire risk based on the values of potential fire risk, but taking into account the number of people. Conclusions 1. The known method, which allows the value of social fire risk to be taken equal to the value of potential risk at the internal boundary of the area where people are located, allows obtaining the correct value only if the number of people in the area under consideration is 10. 2. The value of social fire risk can exceed the potential fire risk as many times as the number of people in the area under consideration exceeds 10, therefore, taking it equal to the value of potential risk can erroneously underestimate the value of social risk by several times. 3. A new method is proposed that allows, based on the values of potential fire risk, to determine the maximum possible value of social fire risk, taking into account the number of people located near the production facility. 4. The proposed method also allows solving the inverse problem - determining the minimum distances or maximum number of people near an industrial facility (and, for example, making a decision on the possibility of placing a container car filling station) with the condition that the social fire risk does not exceed the permissible value. Keywords: social fire risk; potential fire risk; risk calculation; fire safety of industrial facilities.

Purpose. The article substantiates the need to develop the information and analytical system (IAS) “Probit” designed to justify the sufficiency or development of additional systems for ensuring fire safety of industrial facilities based on the calculated determination of fire risk values. The capabilities and features of the program are described. Methods. The methodology for determining the computed values of fire risk at production facilities, approved by the Order of EMERCOM of Russia dated July 10, 2009 No. 404. served as a methodological and regulatory base for writing the IAS “Probit”. The programming languages JavaScript, PHP, Vue.js and Laravel frameworks were used directly for the development of the IAS as well as a MySQL relational database. Findings. The proposed scientific approach allows not only evaluating the effectiveness of using a particular fire protection system on the same equipment, but also comparing fire hazard of different process equipment, that is, to predict, for example, how many times a tank is more dangerous than a distillation column, and a distillation column than a pump or compressor etc. This approach can be used not only to assess the technological equipment fire hazard, but also when insuring production facilities. Research application field. The IAS “Probit” is intended to be used in the activities of EMERCOM of Russia, expert organizations, research and design institutes, as well as higher educational institutions and other educational organizations, when dealing with the issues of confirming the compliance of industrial objects protection with the required level of fire safety, including implementation of final qualifying works, the development of technical specification and company standards. Conclusions. The “Probit” information and analytical system application in educational process can significantly improve the quality of training specialists who are competent in the following areas: methods for assessing the compliance of the object under protection with the requirements of regulations and normative documents; methods for determining fire risk estimated values; fire safety systems for protecting facilities aimed at reducing fire risk.

Building fires pose a critical threat to life and property. Therefore, accurate fire risk prediction is essential for effective building fire prevention and mitigation strategies. This study presents a novel approach to predicting fire risk in buildings by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques and integrating diverse datasets. Our proposed model incorporates a comprehensive range of 34 variables, including building attributes, land characteristics, and demographic information, to construct a robust risk assessment framework. We applied 16 distinct machine learning algorithms, integrating them into a stacking ensemble model to address the limitations of individual models and significantly improve the model’s predictive reliability. The ensemble model classifies fire risk into five distinct categories. Notably, although the highest-risk category comprises only 22% of buildings, it accounts for 54% of actual fires, highlighting the model’s practical value. This research advances fire risk prediction methodologies by offering stakeholders a powerful tool for informed decision-making in fire prevention, insurance assessments, and emergency response planning.

Harmonization of semi-objective ANP with explained CRITIC for quantitative evaluation of fire hazard risks for flame-retardant materials

Fire behavior of hemp blocks: A biomass-based construction material

РАЗРАБОТКА РЕКОМЕНДАЦИЙ ПО СНИЖЕНИЮ ИНДИВИДУАЛЬНОГО ПОЖАРНОГО РИСКА ПРИ ФУНКЦИОНИРОВАНИИ УЧЕБНОГО КОРПУСА "В" (СТРОЕНИЕ 7) НИТУ "МИСИС"

О НОРМАТИВНОМ ЗНАЧЕНИИ ИНДИВИДУАЛЬНОГО ПОЖАРНОГО РИСКА