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  • Взаємозв’язок між обсягами інвестицій та доходів в україні у воєнний період
  • https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2025-1-49Copy DOI Icon

Взаємозв’язок між обсягами інвестицій та доходів в україні у воєнний період

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Abstract

Military operations in Ukraine are a significant obstacle to the growth of investment rates and income from investment. According to the results of statistical analysis, most scientists conclude that there is a certain dependence on the trends of the volumes of these indicators. However, there is an objective need to prove the interdependence of these processes using economic and mathematical models. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to determine the relationship between investment volumes and income from them in Ukraine from both a phenomenon and a process perspective during the period of military operations and to identify the main areas for improving the investment climate of the Ukrainian economy. The object of the study is the processes of investment and income from investments. The subject of the study is to generalize the theoretical support and practical recommendations on the issue of interdependence of investment processes and the formation of income from them in the difficult economic conditions of military operations in Ukraine. The main research methods used are theoretical generalization, system analysis, analysis, synthesis – to substantiate the object, subject, factors that hinder investment, and to form directions for improving the investment climate in Ukraine, generating conclusions and directions for further research; statistical analysis of initial data, graphical method – to visualize the results of investment processes and obtaining income from them; regression analysis, forecasting method by growth curves, canonical analysis – to prove the existence of a close relationship and the presence of interdependence of investment processes and processes of obtaining investment income. The article presents the following main results. The prevailing opinions of scientists on the main trends in changes in investment volumes and income from their investment in wartime are summarized. Using statistical data, graphs of investment volumes and income were constructed quarterly for the period of military operations in Ukraine from 2022 to 2024, and pairwise regression models of the dependence of these variables were constructed, which proved the presence of a dependence between them in the period under study. Using growth curves, the relationship between investment volumes and income for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first and second quarters of 2025 was predicted, and a system of equations between them was constructed using canonical analysis, which proved the existence of a significant interdependence between investment volumes and income from their investment from the standpoint of a process approach. The constructed economic and mathematical models proved the existence of a significant interdependence between investment volumes and income received from these processes for Ukraine during the war period. On this basis, factors inhibiting investment processes were identified, and directions for improving the investment climate in Ukraine were proposed. Keywords: wartime, investments, income, regression analysis, forecasting, growth curves, canonical analysis, factors inhibiting investment processes, directions for improving the investment climate.

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