Трансформация рынка труда в условиях неопределенности: новые формы, факторы и перспективы

The participation of older individuals in the labour market has increased as a result of recent demographic and societal shifts, as well as reforms of pension and social security systems. However, employment inequalities in late working life and labour market exit persist. Early exit from the labour market affects the sustainability of public finances and the availability of skilled labour, as well as the financial, social, mental, and physical well-being of individuals. So far, the literature on employment in late working life and labour market exit has mainly focused on individual choices. However, employment and exit in late working life are complex phenomena that depend on a variety of factors, such as individual life courses and labour market conditions. Based on Swedish register data, this thesis examines inequalities in employment and labour market exit among people aged 55 and over in Sweden, and the role of life course and age-related labour market disadvantages, including studies on: inequalities and diversity between gender and educational groups (Study 1); the relationship between mid-life labour market attachment and patterns of labour market exit (Study 2); age-related disadvantages in unemployment risk and re-employment chances (Study 3); and the link between older workers’ hiring chances and the characteristics and labour market conditions of employers (Study 4). Study 1 shows that employment trajectories, including the receipt of pension, unemployment and disability benefits, are structured by gender and education. While women tend to exit the labour market earlier than men and are more likely to receive disability benefits, men are more likely to move into self-employment or to receive unemployment benefits. Study 2 demonstrates that individuals with low labour market attachment early (at age 30) or late (at age 50-59) in their working careers are more likely to exit the labour market early, while low labour market attachment in mid-career (at age 40-49) is linked with later labour market exit. However, low labour market attachment in all career stages is associated with the receipt of work-related benefits in the year of labour market exit. Study 3 reveals that older workers (in their late 50s and early 60s) are less likely (compared with workers in their early 50s) to be wage-employed after a spell of unemployment, and more likely to become self-employed, to remain unemployed, to exit the labour market, or, if re-employed, to experience downward mobility (lower wage or part-time unemployment). Finally, Study 4 shows that the age and educational composition of employees, combined with the sectoral affiliation of employers and local labour market conditions, are directly related to the likelihood of hiring older workers. That is, older workers are more likely to be hired in establishments with a high share of older and low educated employees, in the health, education, transport and storage sectors, and in municipalities with a high share of older people of working age, a high unemployment rate, and a low share of unfilled vacancies. This thesis makes a unique contribution to the literature on inequalities and age-related disadvantages in late working life, as well as on policies to extend working life and tackle inequalities in old age. The overall conclusion is that the diversity of employment trajectories is socially structured and related to individuals’ employability, workability, and flexibility to change employment or exit from the labour market – structured by individual life courses and labour market conditions. Policies towards equal and prolonged working lives should focus on sustainable working conditions, lifelong learning, and discriminatory practices, not only in late working life but throughout the overall working life course.

The labour market is the main factor of production in a market economy. Its participants are the economically active part of the population, public and private economic entities. The main mechanisms of the functioning of the labour market are the creation of labour force and jobs, through which the demand, supply and distribution of labour force, employment levels of the population are regulated. It is obvious that the efficiency of the economy, as a rule, largely depends on the labour resources of the state. The factors determining the growth of the national economy are labour productivity, labour potential and the level of expertise of the workforce. The paper examines the main trends in the labour market in the conditions of economic modernization, for example, the forced transition from the production to the demand sector, the increase in the vertical and horizontal gap between supply and demand. The labour market of the last decade has been characterized by a worldwide increase in the level of qualification of employees due to an increase in the number of specialists with higher education. This trend can be traced according to the requirements of employers about the availability of the necessary skills of applicants depending on the area of responsibility. The paper analyzes the dynamics of the main indicators of the labour market in modern economic conditions. The problems of functioning of the Russian labour market are revealed.

Benefit programmes protect individuals against loss of income and provide unemployed individuals the possibility of finding a better match between their qualifications and job vacancies. This positive aspect of inducing workers to achieve better job matches has been shown to increase economic efficiency (Acemoglu & Shimer, 1999; Marimon & Zilibotti, 1999). However, unemployment benefits may also distort incentives by subsidizing long and unproductive job searches. In fact, the generosity of unemployment benefits is generally considered the main factor by which benefit systems affect unemployment. From a societal point of view, therefore, the optimal unemployment benefit system will balance considerations for protection with those for distortion (Feldstein, 2005; Mortensen, 1987). Theory suggests that putting a limit on benefit duration will tend to accelerate job search from the beginning of the unemployment spell and thereby shorten unemployment duration (Pissarides, 2000). Thus, generosity of benefits is determined not only by the amount paid but also by the duration of benefit entitlement. In the US, replacement rates1 are low and duration is short compared to benefit systems in most European countries. In 2005 the maximum duration of unemployment insurance entitlement among OECD countries 2 was shortest in the US at 6 months 3 and longest in Denmark, Norway, Portugal, the Netherlands, France, Finland and Spain, varying between 23 and 48 months (OECD, 2007). At the same time, the gross initial replacement rate was around 50% in the US, while varying between 62% and 90% in the aforementioned European countries. The lower level of generosity of benefits in the US compared to Europe is consistent with the observation of higher levels of active searches and a greater willingness to accept inferior jobs by unemployed workers in the US compared to Europe (Layard, Nickell & Jackman, 2005). As a consequence European policy-makers may be tempted to reduce the generosity of unemployment systems in order to reduce high unemployment levels4. While lowering the replacement rate may be politically intractable (indeed, examples of reductions of benefit rates and amounts are rare), the length of the unemployment benefit entitlement period is often used as a political instrument to improve work incentives for the unemployed. In Spain, for example, the benefit period was altered in 1992, in Slovenia in 1998, in Norway in 1997, in the UK in 1996, in Denmark in 1996, 1998 and 1999, and, more recently, in the Czech Republic in 2004, in Hungary and Portugal in 2006, and in Denmark again in 2010. The important public policy question is whether a more generous unemployment benefit system is causally related to higher unemployment rates. As pointed out in Card and Riddell (1993), there can be several complementary explanations for high unemployment rates, including differences in the fraction of nonworking time that is reported as unemployment (particularly among individuals with very low levels of labour supply), and differences in the overall distributions of working and nonworking time. Recent research on the effect of extended duration of unemployment insurance benefits in the US shows that benefit extensions raised the unemployment rate, but at least half of the effect is attributable to reduced labour force exit among the unemployed rather than to the changes in reemployment rates that are of greater policy concern (Rothstein, 2011). This review will focus on the effect on job finding rates of reducing the maximum duration of entitlement of unemployment benefits, and secondarily on the effects on the quality of these jobs. The intervention of interest is reduction in the maximum duration of entitlement of any kind of unemployment benefit with a known expiration date. The benefits may be unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, or they may be unemployment assistance (UA)/social assistance (SA) benefits as long as they have a known expiration date. In the majority of OECD countries, the UI benefit has a time-limit. In fact, only Belgium has an unlimited UI period. In other countries, the maximum duration varies between 6 months (as for example in the UK and the US) and 36 months (in Iceland). In most OECD countries, a secondary benefit is available for those who have exhausted regular UI benefits. This is known as SA benefits. Unlike UI benefits, SA benefits are generally means-tested without any necessary connection to past employment; they pay a lower level of benefit and are indefinite. We know of only one example of a SA benefit with a time limit: the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) which is available in the US. The federal government requires states to impose between 2- or 5-year limits on TANF (Gustafson & Levine, 1997). In a minority of OECD countries, UA benefits are paid after exhaustion of UI benefits. Like SA benefits, they are generally means-tested, pay a lower level of benefits and, excepting Hungary, Portugal and Sweden, are indefinite. Unemployment benefits with an indefinite time limit or non-financial benefits will be excluded from this review. Search theory offers an explanation for how this intervention might work. According to search theory, one can derive a relationship between the job-finding rate and the parameters of the benefit system, in particular the maximum benefit duration and the replacement rate (Mortensen, 1977). This relationship is driven by adjustments in search effort and reservation wages. The reservation wage is the minimum wage at which the unemployed are willing to accept a job. Forward-looking unemployed workers chose their current search effort and reservation wage in order to maximize the sum of the utility flow realized during the current period, plus the expected discounted future utility flow given that an optimal strategy will be pursued in every future period. The current search effort and reservation wage are thus affected by the future level of benefits. When the benefit period expires, the unemployed person experiences a potentially large drop in income. As the time of benefit exhaustion approaches, the value to that person of remaining unemployed falls, implying a higher search effort and/or a fall in the reservation wage, leading to a higher exit rate out of unemployment (Mortensen, 1977). This non-stationarity implies that unemployed individuals with different lengths of benefit entitlement have different optimal paths of reservation wage and search effort over time (van den Berg 1990). A shorter entitlement period gives the unemployed individual a stronger incentive to quickly gain employment in order to avoid the drop in income after the exhaustion date. How strong the incentive is depends on the magnitude of the income drop. If no secondary benefit is available for those who have exhausted their current benefit, the incentive to gain employment will be stronger. If an increased job finding rate is mainly driven by lowering the reservation wage, a lower job match quality is to be expected, for example, in the form of lower wages and/or lower re-employment duration. A number of factors may have an impact on the magnitude of the expected increase in the job finding rate. In general, the overall labour market conditions (i.e. the vacancy rate5 and, in particular, the unemployment rate) have an impact on the availability of and competition for jobs. If the vacancy rate is high (i.e. the number of vacancies is high in relation to job seekers) we would expect a bigger effect on job finding rates than if the vacancy rate is low. We would further expect a lower effect if the unemployment rate is high, regardless of the vacancy rate. If the vacancy rate is low coincident with a high unemployment rate, competition for available jobs is likely to be high. If the vacancy rate is high coincident with a high unemployment rate, it suggests mismatch in the labour market (i.e., the process by which vacant jobs and job seekers meet is not efficient) (Filges & Larsen, 2000; Pissarides, 2000). Whether compulsory participation in active labour market programmes is part of the unemployment system may also have an impact on the effect of maximum duration of entitlement. The compulsory aspect of activation may provide an incentive for unemployed individuals to look for and return to work prior to programme participation; the so called threat effect. Filges and Hansen (2015) summarize the available evidence on the threat effect of active labour market programmes and report a significant threat effect of compulsory participation in active labour market programmes. Further, actual participation in active labour market programmes may improve some of the participants' qualifications, thus helping them to find a job. Alternatively, active labour market programmes may have negative stigmatization and signalling effects to employers. Programmes associated with participants having poor employment prospect may carry a stigma. Because of asymmetric information, employers do not know the productivity of new workers, some of whom they might hire from the pool of the unemployed. Prospective employers might then perceive participants in such programmes as low productivity workers or workers with tenuous labour market attachment (Kluve et al. 1999; Kluve et al., 2007). A recent systematic review by Filges et al. (2015) investigated the effect of participating in active labour market programmes and found that there is a significant positive effect, although small, of participating in active labour market programmes. The effect reported in Filges et al. (2015) is however a pure post-programme effect of active labour market programmes; it refers to the period after participation in a programme. The net effect of active labour market programme participation on job-finding rates is, however, composed of two separate effects: a lock-in effect and a post-programme effect. The lock-in effect refers to the period of participation in a programme. During this period, job-search intensity may be lowered because there is less time to search for a job, and participants may want to complete an on-going skill-enhancing activity; hence the lock-in effect. The combination of the two effects, lock-in and post-programme, consequently determines the net effects of active labour market programme participation on unemployment duration. These additional effects on the search behaviour and employment prospects when compulsory participation in active labour market programmes is part of the unemployment system may dampen the observed effects of maximum duration of entitlement on job finding rates. Finally, the type of unemployment benefit may have an impact on the effect on the job finding rate. As mentioned above, some countries employ two systems to provide benefits to unemployed individuals: an unemployment insurance system for individuals who typically have a strong labour market attachment (UI benefits) and a social welfare system for individuals who often have other problems in addition to unemployment (SA or UA benefits). The effect size in social welfare systems offering unemployment benefits with a known expiration date is, due to the participants' lower labour market attachment, expected to be less than the effect size in unemployment insurance systems with a known expiration date. In order to reduce high unemployment levels, policy-makers may wish to reduce the generosity of the unemployment system either in amount (the replacement rate) or in maximum potential duration. The positive correlation between unemployment benefit generosity in terms of the replacement rate and unemployment duration is well established at the empirical level (Layard et al., 2005). However, it may be politically intractable to lower the replacement rate, and there are indeed strong efficiency and equity arguments for having a reasonable value of unemployment benefits (Acemoglu & Shimer, 1999; Marimon & Zilibotti, 1999). Search theory suggests that an increase in unemployment benefit generosity, in terms of maximum duration of benefit entitlement, has a negative impact on the job search activities of the unemployed increasing their unemployment duration. There is clear evidence that the prospect of exhaustion of benefits results in a significantly increased incentive for finding work, although the effect is small (Filges et al., 2013). Hence, shortening the benefit eligibility period may reduce the share of long and unproductive job searches somewhat. The conclusion in Filges et al. (2013) however leaves unanswered the question of by how much reducing the maximum unemployment benefit entitlement will decrease unemployment duration. There are many empirical papers on the effect of maximum benefit entitlement on unemployed individuals (Caliendo, Tatsiramos and Uhlendoff 2009; Bennmarker, Carling & Holmlund, 2007; Ham & Rea, 1987; Hunt, 1995; Katz & Meyer, 1990 and Lalive & Zweimüller, 2004), but the empirical research has not been summarized in a systematic review to obtain a clearer picture of the available evidence on the employment effect of reducing maximum duration of benefit entitlement. One paper provides a review of the literature on how incentives in unemployment insurance can be improved (Fredriksson and Holmlund 2006). However, it is not a systematic review and, furthermore, the authors do not make the important distinction between exits to employment and exits to other destinations such as such as other kinds of benefits or out of the labour force. Distinguishing between destinations is vital. As shown in Card, Chetty and Weber (2007), the exit rate from registered unemployment increases over 10 times more than the rate of re-employment at the expiration of benefits. The difference between the two measures arises because many individuals leave the unemployment register immediately after their benefits expire without returning to work. There is a great deal of political interest in optimizing the unemployment benefit system so it balances the protection and distortion dimensions. The political interest is to reduce the unemployment level, to prevent exploitation of the unemployment benefit system and at the same time protect the unemployed individuals from the consequences of involuntary unemployment. It is therefore of great importance to establish the effect of reducing maximum duration of unemployment benefit entitlement on employment probabilities. The purpose of this review is to systematically uncover relevant studies in the literature that measure the effects of shortening the maximum duration of unemployment benefit entitlement on job finding rates, and to synthesize the effects in a transparent manner. As a secondary objective we will, where possible, investigate the extent to which the effects differ among different groups of unemployed such as high/low educated or men/women, and further explore from which point in the unemployment spell do unemployed individuals react to the length of benefit entitlement. The title for this systematic review was approved in The Campbell Collaboration on 9. October 2012. Study designs that use a well-defined control group are eligible. The main control or comparison condition is no change in maximum duration of benefit entitlement. Non-randomized studies, where the reduction in maximum duration of benefit entitlement has occurred in the course of usual decisions outside the researcher's control must demonstrate pre-treatment group equivalence via matching, statistical controls, or evidence of equivalence on key risk variables (e.g., labour market conditions) and participant characteristics. These factors are outlined in section ‘Assessment of risk of bias in included studies’ under the subheading of Confounding, and the methodological appropriateness of the included studies will be assessed according to the risk of bias model outlined in section ‘Assessment of risk of bias in included studies’. Studies of the effect of reducing unemployment benefit entitlement typically are estimated on data collected from administrative registers or by questionnaires. Studies that use different data sources for treatment and control groups will not be eligible. Only studies that use individual micro-data are eligible. Studies that rely on regional or national time series data are not eligible, even though micro-econometric estimates of individual effects merely provide partial information about the full impact of shortening the maximum duration of benefit entitlement (Calmfors, 1994; Calmfors, 1995). We will include studies irrespective of their publication status, and their electronic availability. We will include unemployed individuals who receive some sort of time limited benefit during their unemployment spell. The International Labour Office (ILO) definition of an unemployed individual is a person, male or female, aged 15-74, without a job who is available for work and either has searched for work in the past four weeks or is available to start work within two weeks and/or is waiting to start a job already obtained (ILO, 1990); however, different countries may apply different definitions of an unemployed individual, see for example Statistics Denmark (2009). We will include participants receiving all types of unemployment benefits with a known exhaustion date. The only restriction is that the benefits must be related to being unemployed. We will therefore exclude individuals who only receive other types of benefits not related to being unemployed. We will include all unemployed participants regardless of age, gender, etc. who receive some sort of time limited benefit during their unemployment spell. The intervention is reduction in the maximum duration of entitlement of any kind of unemployment benefits. The benefits may be unemployment insurance (UI) benefits or they may be unemployment assistance (UA)/social assistance (SA). The only requirement is that the benefit must have a known expiration date. The UI benefit usually has a known time-limit whereas UA and SA usually are indefinite. Unemployment benefits with an indefinite time limit or non-financial benefits will be excluded from this review. The objective is to determine whether reducing the maximum entitlement to unemployment benefits motivates unemployed individuals to find a job more quickly. Distinguishing between destinations is therefore vital. The primary outcome is exits to employment. Studies only looking at exits to other destinations such as other types of social benefits or non-employment and studies who do not distinguish between destinations are not eligible. We will consider secondary outcomes in terms of the impact that reducing the maximum duration of entitlement of benefit has on the duration of re-employment and on income. This will the done in order to obtain a clearer picture of the effect that reducing the maximum entitlement of unemployment benefit has on the quality of the job. If the duration of re-employment or the wage is low, this could indicate that reducing entitlement forces unemployed individuals to find jobs that do not match their qualifications and therefore they may return to unemployment quickly. Outcomes measured as hazard ratios may be reported as an overall effect on the hazard ratio, or may be reported separate for various unemployment duration intervals. All time points reported will be considered. All types of settings are eligible. Relevant studies will be identified through electronic searches of bibliographic databases, research networks, government policy databanks and internet search engines. No language or date restrictions are applied in the searches6. An example of the search strategy for Business Source Elite is listed in Appendix 1.4. The strategy will be modified for the different databases. We will report full details of the modifications in the completed review. Additional searches will be made by means of Google (including Google Scholar) and we will check the first 150 hits. OpenSIGLE will be used to search for European grey literature (http://opensigle.inist.fr/). Copies of relevant documents will be made and we will record the exact URL and date of access for each relevant document. Websites of the following private independent research institutes and economic networks will be searched: IZA -- Institute of the Study of Labor (www.iza.org) CEPR -- Centre for Economic Policy Research (www.cepr.org) NBER -- National Bureau of Economic Research (www.nber.org) MDRC -- the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation -- (www.mdrc.org) CESifo -- the cooperation between CES (Center for Economic Studies) and IFO (Institute for Economic Research) -- (www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome) are all covered via IDEAS. In addition we will look into the following sites: Danish Economic Councils (www.dors.dk) OECD - the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (www.oecd.org) IMF - The International Monetary Fund (www.imf.org) AIECE - Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (www.aiece.org) ESRC - Economic Social Research Council (www.esrc.ac.uk) Copenhagen Economics (www.copenhageneconomics.com) SSRN -- Social Science Research Network (www.ssrn.com) will also be searched to uncover potential preprint discussion papers. Unpublished theses and dissertations will be searched through the databases: Theses and dissertations and Theses Canada. Copies of relevant documents from Internet-based sources will be made. We will record the exact URL and date of of included studies and of relevant will be of Labor and will be searched for the and the available of of included studies and relevant will be searched for potential new with national and will be considered to and on-going We expect that a of the studies we will have been without of there is no for in labour market This among other from some of of participants due to about of The in these studies without of participants is the of the effect. studies use in benefit or changes of the maximum entitlement period. A policy is to the maximum benefit period when labour market conditions are expected to studies use this policy to the effect on unemployment duration & Rea, 1987; Hunt, and Katz & Meyer, 1990). It is however to rely on such a as these changes any other policy If the of the change are not for it will of the effect will be due to the labour market conditions that to the change in entitlement in the first A more recent & Zweimüller, extended benefit entitlement in and four different in order to the effect of extended benefit entitlement from the impact of labour The extended benefit entitlement was to the labour market problems in and for of The was therefore limited to job seekers aged or in for a limited time period (the after implying that there may be many workers who are to different for time and they different of where no are consider the policy of extended benefit entitlement as thereby to the when it can be that the individuals are not to during the observation period Lalive & Zweimüller, for further The same of apply to all changes to the maximum entitlement period. example the by and of the unemployment insurance system in The reduced the maximum duration of benefits, by half for most groups of the effect, they a strategy and the of employment and after the for those affected with the job finding for those who not avoid bias due to of the from employment to they only consider data for the period of 2 months and 2 months after the The authors further that it is a as the in potential benefit duration to the of the labour market and furthermore, potential benefit duration for different groups of unemployed. In Tatsiramos & the is on a The strategy on a in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits at the of in unemployed who are the with unemployed the gives a measure of the effect of maximum duration of benefits. is the in Lalive on a in the potential benefit duration at and in We will into the of of the studies to determine to whether individuals in groups (i.e. whether individuals may have whether there treatment groups and whether several studies are on the same data included in this review will be for in the of and the of as statistical can when they are When have been we will effect estimates and their & 2011). In where have not applied that control for effects, we will the correlation & and Studies with intervention groups with different individuals will be included in this review. avoid problems with between effect we will apply & However, studies that this around studies included in the data et al., If this number be we will use a effect size (the in order to avoid between effect This provides an of the effect size but the effects applied when effect are better in terms of than do effects 2007). However, of when effect are included are less often than If is not (e.g., the and/or control groups include the same only one intervention group will be and compared to the control group to avoid The of which to include will be on risk of bias We will the that we to have the least risk of bias bias and in of the data will be In some several studies may have used the same of data or some studies may have used only a of a used in We will review all such studies, but in the we will only include one of the effect from each of This will be done to avoid between the (i.e. the estimates of the in the The of which to include will be on risk of bias of the We will the from the that we to have the least risk of bias If two studies are to have the same risk of bias and one of the studies a of a used in or studies, we will include the the full of When the results are measured at time each outcome at each time point will be in a separate with other studies at a time As a these will be according to length of unemployment duration as to less than 6 6 months to more than However, the studies provide for an of relevant and duration for the of we will the the of review two review will first and to exclude studies that are Studies considered by at least one or studies there is in

Labour market plays a top-priority role in ensuring sustainable social and economic development of the region. In conditions of today’s challenges, such as economic sanctions, global transformations in employment, speeding-up of digitalization and demographic changes the need to adapt regional labour markets is extremely topical. The south of Russia with unique combination of agrarian, industrial and recreation potential is facing a number of specific problems in the field of employment. Labour market of the South Federal District and the North-Caucasian Federal District demonstrate both adaptation opportunities and serious challenges. Lately labour market of the south region shows changes in the structure of demand for work force, unemployment rise in some regions, personnel shortage in leading industries and high migration mobility of people. These factors shall be analyzed comprehensively and effective measures of response shall be elaborated. The goal of the research is to identify key trends and factors influencing labour market in the south of Russia and put forward possible ways of raising its sustainability. The research is based on data of the Federal Service of State Statistics, regional bodies of employment, information and analytical resources and findings of social surveys. The research used methods of economic and statistical analysis to study factor dynamics that characterize labour market and comparative analysis to collate figures of labor market with all-Russian and inter-regional data.

This article presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment – we consider a third state – out of the labour force. Second, we study net rather than gross flows, where net refers to the balance of flows between any two labour market states. Distinguishing a third state is important because the labour market flows to and from that state are quantitatively important. Focusing on net flows simplifies the complexity of interactions between the flows and allows us to perform a dynamic analysis in a structural vector-autoregression framework. We find that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drives the unemployment rate and the participation rate in opposite directions while a shock to the net flow from not in the labour force to unemployment drives the rates in the same direction.

Book Review: Are immigrants poorer than natives? Which categories of immigrants are poorer? Do immigrants’ poverty patterns follow the traditional welfare state regime typology? Can institutions–particularly social rights in terms of access to welfare provision and the labour market–explain the variation in immigrants’ poverty levels? These are the fundamental questions that Beatrice Eugster analyses in her new book.

In the present study, the Bologna process is viewed through the lenses of the end product of reform initiatives it has been promoting in the last decade: in this case, a coherent system of three degrees – the bachelor, the master, and the doctorate. And in particular, it is focused on the changing social perceptions and labor market perceptions of the bachelor degree. The increasing acceptance of the bachelor degree in the Polish labor market seems to be an indirect product of the Bologna process: in the 1990s the bachelor degree both had low social prestige and was refused as appropriate higher education credentials by the labor market. But recent national data tend to suggest that while the social prestige of the bachelor degree is still low, its market value is quite high. Consequently, the bachelor degree may have much higher acceptance among students and graduates in the near future. The role of the Bologna process in this transformation has been substantial. There seems to be a combination of national and international forces at work which has managed to transform the national labor market position of the bachelor degree. The study is divided into the following sections: introduction; the degree structure in Poland in an European comparative context; the bachelor degree in Poland from a historical comparative perspective: legal changes and institutional transformations; the degree structure and the labor market response: review of recent empirical evidence; the bachelor degree and private higher education; and conclusions.KeywordsHigh EducationLabour MarketWage PremiumBachelor DegreePrivate High EducationThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

PurposeThe study investigates persistence of individuals' labour market activity with a focus on examining whether and to what extent there is genuine state dependence in six labour market states: not-in-labour-force, unemployment, self-employment, casual employment, fixed term contracts, and ongoing employment, and how the persistence and genuine state dependence of the labour market states change with education levels.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic multinomial logit model that accounts for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity is estimated, using the first 19 waves of the Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey.FindingsWhile observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity plays an important role in the persistence of each of the labour market states examined, genuine state dependence is found to be present for all the states. It is also found that the persistence and genuine state dependence of unemployment is larger among those with a low education attainment than among those with higher education.Practical implicationsThe existence of genuine state dependence of labour market states calls for early interventions to prevent people from losing jobs.Originality/valueEarlier studies often focus on persistence of a particular labour market state such as unemployment, while this study examines the persistence simultaneously of six labour market states.

Careers unfold within a bigger macroeconomic context rather than operating in a vacuum. In the last decades, labor markets and careers have changed enormously. The boundaryless career was introduced as a new employment principle, however, with a focus on contrasting organization-led versus self-directed careers. The importance of contextual factors on a macro level (e.g., economic conditions in a geographical area, labor market segmentation) has been largely underestimated. In line with this critique, the aim of this symposium is to systematically explore the interplay between individual and structural factors in shaping individuals’ careers. We shed light on job insecurity, employability and turnover as central and multiple facets of careers through a context- dependent lens. Besides using samples from various countries to account for different labor market conditions, we provide studies looking at time-dependent contextual influences to better understand the challenges for individuals and organizations posed by the economic crisis. With this symposium, we (re-)introduce boundaries to the career debate in times where economy, organizations and careers seem continuously boundaryless. Career Prospects Before and After the Onset of the Great Recession - A Multi-Level Perspective Presenter: Petra M. Eggenhofer-Rehart; WU Vienna U. of Economics and Business Presenter: Michael Schiffinger; WU Vienna U. of Economics and Business Predicting Career Transitions: Effects of Labor Market Situation and Individual Determinants Presenter: Angelika Kornblum; ETH Zurich Presenter: Dana Unger; ETH Zurich Presenter: Gudela Grote; ETH Zurich Employability of Temporary and Permanent Workers: The Importance of Symbolic Capital Presenter: Jasper Delva; KU Leuven Presenter: Anneleen Forrier; KU Leuven Presenter: Nele De Cuyper; KU Leuven How the Labor Market Situation Affects Employees' Trust in Organizations and Themselves Presenter: Wiebke Doden; ETH Zurich Presenter: Manuela Morf; U. of Zurich Presenter: Gudela Grote; ETH Zurich

Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Conditions on Family Formation for Japanese Youth

Determinants of Transitions Across Formal / Informal Sectors in Egypt

Heterogeneity and wage growth of full-time workers in Japan: An empirical analysis using micro data

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in relative commodity prices on the distribution of income among factors of production in the context of two models of a simple, two-good economy. In the first model capital is treated as a specific factor in each industry, with labor mobile between industries. The assumption of specificity determines the direction of factor income changes, with magnitudes depending on substitutability between factors and on intensities of factor use within the two industries. In the second model, capital is viewed as a quasi-fixed factor. For the short run, this model is identical to the model first considered. For the long run, this model is identical to the Stolper-Samuelson model in which the direction and magnitude of factor income changes depend solely on relative factor intensities. The difference between the short-run and long-run determinants of changes in factor incomes gives rise to a conflict between factor owners' short-run and long-run interests.

The article presents the results of a factor analysis of the current state and development prospects of the Russian labour market in the context of active processes of the economy digitalization. The purpose of this article is to identify the most important factors that ensure or limit the formation of effective relationships in the labour market that meet the requirements of digitalization at all levels of management. The research is based on an analysis of the works of foreign and domestic authors on the problems of digitalization of the labour market and the use of such methods as statistical, factorial, and logical analysis, monographic description, synthesis, comparison, and graphical representation of information. The analysis is carried out according to indicators both in Russia as a whole and in its particular regions. It is noted that, in the sphere of the labour market, problems arise in the formation of a flexible mechanism for building relations between employers, workers and the state, taking into account the interests of each subject of social and labour relations. The analysis showed that in spite of the opportunities of the digital economy, the Russian labour market is not actually ready for digitalization on a number of built-in organizational and socio-economic barriers caused by systemic imbalances of social and labour relations. Conclusions contain the main directions for adapting the labour market to digital platforms.

The paper examines the impact of labor supply shocks, wage bargaining shocks, productivity shocks, and external and domestic demand shocks on the Russian labor market from 2017 to 2024. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified through sign restrictions and performing a historical decomposition, the study finds that both macroeconomic and market-specific shocks influence key labor market variables. Special attention is given to the factors contributing to labor market imbalances in recent years. The results indicate that the primary drivers of declining unemployment and rising employment since late 2022 have been positive domestic demand and productivity shocks, whereas external demand and wage bargaining shocks have constrained labor demand growth. The labor market conditions observed since spring 2023 can be characterized as a job seeker’s market. The normalization of domestic demand and the rise in real wages are helping to restore equilibrium in the Russian labor market.