Анализ зависимости волатильности курса рубля от рынка нефти в условиях пандемии

The aim of the article is to analyze the formation of local budget revenues in Ukraine under conditions of economic instability caused by a decade-long war and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify tendencies in the adaptation of the budgetary system of territorial communities to crisis challenges. The article examines the transformational processes of local budget revenue formation in Ukraine in the context of prolonged crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale war by the russian federation against Ukraine. It is substantiated that the financial decentralization implemented in Ukraine up to 2020 ensured an increase in the financial autonomy of local self-government bodies and strengthened the budget capacity of territorial communities. At the same time, starting from 2020, under the influence of crises, a reverse tendency can be observed – a decrease in the share of local budgets in the consolidated budget, centralization of financial resources, and a transformation of the role of inter-budget transfers. The study reveals that the tax revenues of local budgets have shown higher resilience to external shocks compared to transfers from the State budget. Special attention is devoted to the dynamics of key budget-forming taxes – personal income tax, single tax, corporate income tax, excise tax, and property taxes. It is analyzed how the State’s anti-crisis policy and changes in the behavior of local economic agents have influenced the filling of local budgets. The article outlines the current challenges associated with the collection of military personal income tax for the State budget, the decline in property tax revenues due to the loss of the tax base, and the changing role of transfers in supporting communities. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of strengthening the fiscal autonomy of territorial communities and developing tools to adapt local finances to the conditions of prolonged economic instability.

Methods. The research methodology involves a step-by-step structuring of the forecasting process, which allows for the interrelationships between economic risks, internal resources of the enterprise, and the external environment that affect the stability of the enterprise to be taken into account. The second stage consists of constructing scenarios for the development of the economic environment, taking into account optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic options. The third stage involves assessing the enterprise's resilience for each scenario, and the fourth stage involves selecting and testing management measures aimed at increasing adaptability and reducing the negative impact of risks. The final stage involves verifying the results, summarizing the conclusions, and formulating practical recommendations. Results. The results of the study allow us to make reasonable predictions about the level of resilience of enterprises in various scenarios, identify critical points of economic instability, and develop effective management strategies that can be applied in strategic planning, risk management, and improving the sustainability of enterprises in a dynamic and unpredictable economic environment. Novelty. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a scientific and practical approach to forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability through the implementation of scenario modeling methods, which provides a scientifically sound assessment of the adaptive capacity of an enterprise and the effectiveness of managerial influences. A multi-level research methodology has been developed, which includes the identification of key factors of economic instability, the formation of alternative scenarios for the development of the economic environment, the assessment of enterprise resilience using KPI and KRI indicators, and the selection of optimal management actions in conditions of economic instability. Practical value. The significance of the results obtained lies in the fact that the proposed scientific-practical approach to forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability through the implementation of scenario modeling methods allows for a systematic assessment of the level of adaptive stability and the selection of optimal management strategies for enterprises, taking into account the complex interaction of internal and external factors that determine the adaptive stability of enterprises.

Ukraine's economy as an element of the global system is one of the weakest links and is highly vulnerable to crisis phenomena. In theese conditions of economic instability, each enterprise should more closely analyze their activities in order to quickly identify the threat of bankruptcy and reveal ways to stabilize economic situation. For this purpose, a financial analysis of the company's activity has been used. The essence, purpose, methods of conducting financial analysis, which is a necessary component of the management apparatus to support the financial independence of the enterprise have been analyzed. Particular attention has been paid to the feasibility of developing and implementing adapted to modern conditions measures to improve the financial situation of domestic enterprises in conditions of economic instability. Attention has been drawn to the importance of choosing the method of financial analysis, taking into account the purpose of the enterprise and the situation on the market. It has also been noted that one of the important stages after the financial analysis of the enterprise is the development of a proper strategy for enterprise development. Based on this, the article gives an example of an algorithm for phased development of the enterprise development strategy based on the diagnosis of financial condition. The main goal of the company's operations in the market is the financial result in the form of profit and one of the key indicators that determines the effectiveness of its activities. Successful activity of the company in the market conditions largely depends on how the complex process of enterprise management is carried out, the essence of which is to find and make the most effective decisions and their practical implementation.

The article presents an in depth study of administrative interaction in the system of anti crisis personnel management as a key factor of enterprise adaptability under conditions of economic instability, external shocks, and increased uncertainty of the business environment. Administrative interaction is interpreted as a regulated managerial process that includes coordination of actions, transmission of managerial decisions, organization of feedback, and control over their implementation, which becomes especially important during crisis situations. The study systematizes theoretical approaches to anti crisis management, personnel management, and managerial interaction, and analyzes contemporary scientific publications by Ukrainian and international researchers. Special attention is paid to the role of administrative interaction in maintaining organizational stability, reducing information uncertainty, and ensuring consistency between strategic decisions and operational activities of personnel. The article substantiates that effective administrative interaction allows enterprises to preserve key human capital competencies, maintain employee motivation, and support psychological stability during periods of crisis. Based on the analysis of practical cases from various sectors of the economy, it is demonstrated that enterprises that implement structured administrative interaction mechanisms, such as multi channel managerial platforms, regular briefings, performance monitoring systems, and adaptive HR practices, achieve higher levels of productivity and resilience compared to organizations with fragmented management approaches. Administrative interaction is shown to function not only as an information exchange tool, but also as an instrument of managerial influence that strengthens trust, coordination, and responsibility within the organization. The article proposes methodological recommendations for improving administrative interaction in anti crisis personnel management, including the integration of managerial communication tools, psychological support programs, adaptive training, and continuous performance monitoring. The practical significance of the research lies in its applicability for managers and business owners seeking to enhance enterprise adaptability, accelerate decision making processes, minimize human capital losses, and ensure sustainable organizational functioning in crisis conditions.

Relevance. The innovation ecosystem is currently the vector for the development of innovation activity in the regional economic system. In the context of the emergence of destabilizing external factors and economic instability in the state, innovative activity acquires a key role associated with the formation of economic stability at the macro, meso and micro levels, helping to counter external threats and challenges. It has a particular influence on the development of the regional economic system, ensuring the growth of the level of enterprises and economic sectors through the production of high-tech products. Thus, stimulating the growth of competitiveness, both at the level of enterprises and the region as a whole. The innovation ecosystem is a condition for achieving the effectiveness of innovation, thanks to the process management system in the innovation cycle, from the generation and production of an innovative product, to its implementation and promotion, thereby expressing the relevance and practical significance of this phenomenon in conditions of economic instability. The purpose of the study was to determine the functional characteristics and influence of the innovation ecosystem on the processes of innovation in the region, as a necessary condition for the integration of elements of the Concept of Sustainable Development.Objectives. The study set and consistently solved the following objectives: conduct a theoretical review of the concept of “innovation ecosystem” and study approaches to its theoretical understanding; identify its structural units and relationships between its elements and formulate a model of the functioning of the region’s innovation ecosystem; assess the impact of the innovation ecosystem in the process of integrating elements of sustainable development and test it using the example of the Vladimir region.Methodology. The work used methods of statistical, graphical and logical analysis, generalization, and systematization of data.Results. Based on a theoretical review, a model of the functioning of the region's innovation infrastructure was obtained, and its influence was determined when integrating elements of the Concept of Sustainable Development into the regional economic system of the Vladimir region.Conclusions. When conducting the study, it was concluded that the integration of the innovation ecosystem into the regional economic system helps to increase the indicators of innovative products produced, and will create conditions for the implementation of the goals of the concept of sustainable development in the region.

The objective of the research. The article is devoted to the problem of valuation of the cost of equity capital in the conditions of economic instability and financial crisis in the emerging markets. The authors analyze the modern tools (for valuation of the cost of capital) in terms of their applicability to emerging economies (for example, Russia).

One of the most topical issues in the sphere of state regulation of environmental security in the region in conditions of economic instability is the improvement of the system of interbudgetary equalization and the search for effective models for redistributing budget funds. The article analyzes the essence and peculiarities of interbudgetary relations in Ukraine. In order to determine the most optimal mechanism for interbudgetary equalization, a centralized, decentralized and mixed model for regulating intergovernmental fiscal relations is studied. The analysis of changes in the structure of tax revenues in state and local budgets is carried out, the main advantages and threats for business entities due to the increase in the level of autonomy of local authorities are determined. Despite the low level of state regulation of environmental safety, as a means of maintaining the balance of social and natural structures, the prerequisite for the formation of regional stability it is proposed measures to improve the process of reforming the system of intergovernmental fiscal relations.

The purpose this scientific article is devoted to the study of the role of social entrepreneurs on sustainable regional development in conditions of economic instability. The relevance of the chosen topic is justified not only by the fact that in the conditions of sanctions pressure and geopolitical destabilization, the domestic economy is forced to cope with various crisis phenomena, but also by the fact that against the background of current events, the level of social tension in society increases, social problems become even more urgent and new ones arise. Sustainable development covers a wide range of issues, including environmental protection, social equality, economic growth and cultural preservation. This requires a holistic and integrated approach that recognizes the interdependence of these issues and seeks to ensure their balance. Together with the analysis of the concept of sustainable development, which should be implemented both at the federal and regional levels, the authors suggest that social entrepreneurs have a significant beneficial impact on the sustainable development of regions. Sustainable development covers a wide range of issues, including environmental protection, social equality, economic growth and cultural preservation. This requires a holistic and integrated approach that recognizes the interdependence of these issues and seeks to ensure their balance. In conditions of economic instability, the state should pay special attention to the development of the institution of social entrepreneurship, since in conditions of increasing social tension and economic destabilization, the level of social problems increases, and social entrepreneurs share the state’s capabilities in solving these problems. Responsibility for the development of the regions lies not only on the state and social entrepreneurs, but also on every member of our society.

The paper is devoted to the construction of a regression model describing the dynamics of the cattle population in Ukraine and to the development of a forecast for 2026. Descriptive statistics, correlation–regression and analysis of variance methods were applied, and the model parameters were estimated using the least squares method. The normality of the distribution was tested using the JarqueBera criterion, while model adequacy was assessed by the coeffi cient of determination and residual analysis. Based on data for 2015–2024, a linear model was developed, indicating an average annual decline in the cattle population of about 211 thousand head. The forecast for 2026 is approximately 1,574 thousand head, with a defi ned confi dence interval. The results confi rm a persistent decline in the cattle population in Ukraine and are consistent with European trends. The model is suitable for analytical purposes and strategic planning under conditions of economic instability and martial law. The aim of the study is to construct a regression model of the dynamics of the cattle population in Ukraine and to form a forecast for 2026 based on a limited time series of statistical data. Methods. The study employed methods of descriptive statistics, correlation–regression analysis, and analysis of variance. Model parameters were estimated using the least squares method. The Jarque–Bera test was used to verify the normality of the data distribution. Model adequacy and statistical reliability were evaluated using the coeffi cient of determination, correlation index, and residual analysis. Calculations and forecasting were performed using Microsoft Excel. Results. Based on statistical data for 2015–2024, a linear regression model of cattle population dynamics in Ukraine was constructed, characterized by a high goodness of fi t (coeffi cient of determination of 0.9874). The Jarque–Bera test confi rmed the normality of the data distribution. A quantitative estimate of the average annual decline in the cattle population was obtained, amounting to about 211 thousand head. A point forecast and a confi dence interval for the projected cattle population in 2026 were constructed. Conclusions. The constructed regression model is statistically signifi cant and can be used to forecast the dynamics of the cattle population in Ukraine under conditions of a limited information base. The projected number of cattle in 2026 is approximately 1,574 thousand head. The obtained results have practical value for strategic planning of the agricultural sector and for managerial decision-making under conditions of economic instability and martial law.

The Fourier transform of a nonstationary time series has the difficulty of providing a proper physical interpretation of the signal as the physical attributes and dynamics associated with the time series may consist of several transients that are different in their nature. The time series analysis method developed by NASA [N. Huang et al., ‘‘The Empirical Mode Decomposition and The Hilbert Spectrum for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Time Series Analysis’’ (to be published)] has a unique approach to adaptively break down the nonstationary time series into the sum of several simple mode functions. Each single mode function can then be expressed in terms of an analytical signal whose amplitude and phase can both be varied with time. Those time variations can be related to the abrupt changes associated with dynamic systems. Such a time variation characteristic can be used to observe the occurrence of a transient event even in a nonstationary process. Applications of this technique to observe various types of acoustic signals in noisy environments are discussed.

The Russian coal industry faced serious external restrictions, falling world prices, and rising logistics costs, which have led to a decline in export volumes and consolidated revenues of the companies.The need to improve the financial stability and efficiency of the coal industry makes it an urgent task to find an effective development strategy for its leading companies, i.e. the technological leaders.The purpose of this work is to identify the best available development strategy based on a comparative analysis of the financial results of technological leaders for 2019-2023 with regard to a conservative and an aggressive strategies in conditions of economic instability.The selection included 106 enterprises of the Russian coal industry.The DEA method and methodologies developed by the authors are used to assess the technical efficiency of the companies, to identify the technological leaders, and to evaluate the dynamics of their performance indicators.The technological leaders significantly increased their net sales and net profit under a conservative strategy, and their results are significantly better than those of the faltering enterprises.Under an aggressive strategy, the technological leaders significantly increased their net sales, but the growth in the leaders' revenues was positive, but low.A significant contribution to net sales and profit growth was made by new large-size and small-size leaders, half of which are located in the eastern regions of the Russian Federation.A conservative leadership strategy outperforms an aggressive strategy in terms of both net sales growth and the profit growth.A conservative leadership strategy focused on minimizing costs proved to be more efficient for coal industry enterprises in conditions of economic instability.

Blockwise empirical likelihood for time series of counts

ABSTRACTThe paper studies the impact of changes in Tunisia's exchange rate on the net external position of the agricultural sector. It shows that substitutability on production and consumption among domestically produced goods leads to an ambiguous impact for reasons that go beyond the Marshall-Lerner condition. Using cointegration techniques to disentangle the long and short-run impact of changes in the exchange rate on the net agricultural trade balance, we find that the depreciation of the domestic currency leads to a deterioration of the net external position of Tunisia's agricultural sector in the long-run.

This article is an attempt to estimate the impact of the volatility of oil prices on the income of Russian economic entities associated with the oil realization, as well as the importance of the price of oil in stabilizing the exchange rate of the national currency.The authors have analyzed dependencies between the variance of the price of oil, ruble exchange rate against the US dollar and Russian oil export volume and observed the correlation between these indicators.It has been concluded that the problems of the Russian economy are expressed in the loss of dollar revenues from oil sales by 2.37 times in the last five years, which significantly affected the trade balance and served as the basis for the devaluation of the ruble.According to the results of the research, the authors suggest several solutions for raising the price of oil and stabilizing the ruble exchange rate.

Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching