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  • МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ ПОЛОЖЕНИЯ ПО ВЕРОЯТНОСТНОМУ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ КАЧЕСТВА ФУНКЦИОНИРОВАНИЯ ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫХ СИСТЕМ. Часть 3. МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ СЛОЖНЫХ СИСТЕМ. ИНТЕГРАЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ
  • https://doi.org/10.21681/2311-3456-2025-2-2-19Copy DOI Icon

МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ ПОЛОЖЕНИЯ ПО ВЕРОЯТНОСТНОМУ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ КАЧЕСТВА ФУНКЦИОНИРОВАНИЯ ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫХ СИСТЕМ. Часть 3. МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ СЛОЖНЫХ СИСТЕМ. ИНТЕГРАЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ

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Abstract

Objective: the purpose of the entire work is to help system analysts involved in assessing the quality of information sys tems (IS) operation during their creation, operation, modernization, development, to form the appearance of a comprehensive probabilistic prediction methodology applicable in the interests of ensuring quality and safety, justifying acceptable risks, identifying significant threats and supporting the adoption of scientifically rational system decisions to proactively counter threats in IS life cycle. The purpose of the 3rd part of the work is to complete the detailing of the general methodological provisions on the probabilistic prediction of the quality of IS operation quality (taking into account the enlarged description of the approach in the 1st part of the article [1] and the presentation of the basics of detailing modeling using «black boxes» in the 2nd part of the article [2]) by proposing: • the formalization of complex modeled systems consisting of parallel-sequential structures formed from «black boxes» and combined using logical connections «AND», «OR»; • the methods of system analysis of the IS operation quality; • the main components of the appearance of a comprehensive methodology for the probabilistic predicting IS operation quality, used by system analysts in the interests of ensuring quality and safety, justifying acceptable risks, identifying significant threats and supporting the adoption of scientifically based system decisions to proactively counter threats in the life cycle of specific IS. Research methods include: methods of probability theory, methods of system analysis. The modeled system is formally represented by «black boxes» and complex systems in the form of parallel-sequential structures formed from «black boxes» combined using logical connections «AND», «OR». The obtained results of mathematical modeling are used in the interpretation of the original IS, in the interests of which the corresponding calculations are carried out. The result of the work as a whole is: based on the research results presented in [1, 2], methodological provisions have been created that form the main components of the appearance of a complex methodology for probabilistic prediction of IS operation quality in accordance with GOST R 59341-2021 «System engineering. Protection of information in system information management process». The use of the proposed methodological provisions is intended to help system analysts form the appearance of a versatile complex methodology of probabilistic prediction, applicable in the interests of ensuring quality and safety, justifying acceptable risks, identifying significant threats and supporting the adoption of scientifically sound system decisions to proactively counter threats in the life cycle of specific IS. Scientific novelty of the work: with the widespread introduction of modern information technology tools and systems, the problems associated with a comprehensive study of the IS operation quality remain acutely relevant. Despite the fact that many system engineering standards have appeared that recommend the use of probabilistic system analysis for various types of systems, in practice, the formation of a set of techniques applicable to predicting quality measures, justifying acceptable risks, identifying significant threats and supporting the adoption of scientifically sound system decisions in IS life cycle causes practical difficulties for system analysts. These difficulties and the use of subjective assessments are related not only to the versatility of the very concept of IS operation quality, but also to the complexity of mathematical formalization, taking into account the specifics of each system. As a result, many important aspects are beyond the analyst's field of consideration, specific quality measures turn out to be incommensurable on a single quantitative scale, and the inverse analytical tasks of proactive threat management in IS life cycle and constituent elements are not solved. I.e., in practice, there is a contradiction between the needs for system analysis of IS and the possibilities for solving urgent problems of system analysis. To overcome this contradiction, the proposed methodological provisions formulate the general purpose of IS operation in various areas applications – to ensure the reliability and timeliness of providing the necessary information, completeness, validity and safety of the information used for subsequent intended use. The main proposed components of the complex methodology of probabilistic prediction of IS operation quality have determined the scientific novelty of this work, focused precisely on achieving this general formulated goal of IS operation.

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