Управление информационными рисками сложной системы с использованием механизма «когнитивной игры»

Objective. The purpose of the study is to collect publicly available information to identify the main problems that hinder the effective management of information security risks in the business sector.Method. The following research methods are used: systematization, description and analysis. The necessary data are formed on the basis of information obtained from the analysis of the regulatory framework and research in the field.Result. In this paper, the relevance of the issue under consideration was substantiated; the significant effectiveness of the risk-based approach in information security management was noted. The key stages of the information security risk management process were described. Next, the main problems of information security risk management for all stages of the holistic process are identified.Conclusion. The conducted research is of an overview nature. The materials presented in the paper can serve as a basis for further research on the topic, as well as for the formation of recommendations for resolving the identified problems.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate how financial risk management strategies lead to growth of MFI sector in Kenya.Methodology: The study adopted a correlation survey research design. The population of this study was fifty seven (57) MFIs. The sampling frame was the list of MFIs provided in the AMFI website www.amfikenya.com. A sample of thirteen (17) MFIs was selected using the random sampling approach. A questionnaire and an interview schedule were the main data collection tools. Qualitative data was analyzed using content analysis whereas the quantitative data was analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) where descriptive and regression analysis were conducted to determine the relationship between enterprise risk management strategies and growth of MFIs.Findings: The findings indicated that MFIs had effective financial risk management strategies such as effective credit risk management practices, liquidity risk management practices, interest risk management practices and price risk management practices. In particular, MFIs took into consideration the conditions, characters, capacity, collateral and capital of borrowers. Strict debt collection practices were widely adopted by MFIs. In addition, the concept of Know Your Customer (KYC) policy, seem to have been adopted by MFIs. The relationship between financial risk management strategies and growth was positive and significant. It also shown that sources of funds for MFIs include external sources and internal sources and the most frequently used source of funds are bank loans. The use of banks loans may present various risk exposures to MFIs, the most significant being interest rate risk. However, the ability of MFIs to source funds from various sources indicates that MFIs can apply the pecking order by first exploiting internal sources of funds since they present a lower financial risks and then move on to external sources. However, despite the financial risk exposure accompanied by leverage from external sources, MFIs may also benefit as they may experience higher growth driven by the leverage. It was also found that MFIs had put in place a number of good practices that had emerged to promote responsible and inclusive lending. These include loan size limits, standardized (simple) loan terms, zero tolerance on delinquency, group-based lending. This finding implies that MFIs have put in place effective credit risk management policies which are part of an overall financial risk management strategy. The existence of effective financial risk management practices may have influenced the growth of MFIsUnique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends that the MFIs to continue practicing effective financial management practices as this would improve the growth of MFIs.

The article presents theoretical and practical problems of financial risk management in Ukraine. It is substantiated that small business plays an important role in the socio-economic progress of any country – a potential locomotive of the national economy. Its importance is revealed in a number of economic, investment and social functions. In a social sense, small business contributes to employment; satisfying the consumer demand of the population; development of the middle class; acquisition and development of entrepreneurial skills, realization of human abilities. It has been proven that the application of a complex approach allows predicting individual effects of the enterprise's macroeconomic activity to avoid risks with the use of longitudinal (spatial, panel) data models. The obtained results have practical value for manufacturers and exporters in the management of financial risks. The study also provides recommendations to managers and stakeholders regarding financial risk management mechanisms that can contribute to increasing the efficiency of enterprises and states. The level of external financial risk has been established, which indicates an effective financial risk management policy, which leads to an improvement in the company's financial condition.

Risk oversight is one the responsibilities of any board of directors. Though not involved in day-to-day risk management, the board must put in place a risk management policy, procedures and guidelines, that management team must follow. Put differently, risk management policies and procedures and codes of conduct and ethics should be incorporated into the company’s strategy and business operations. However, in practice, most boards delegate the oversight of risks to their audit or risk committees. According to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), effective risk management and the resulting controlled environment are central to sound corporate governance.3 Various regulatory bodies in the US and worldwide are pushing for great and effective risk management, particularly in publicly-traded corporations. The PCAOB, for instance, is guiding audit firms to pay more attention to the level of risk associated with management processes. The PCAOB is pushing public auditors to enhance their audit plans and increase monitoring for high-risk behavior.4KeywordsRisk ManagementCorporate GovernanceCash FlowStrike PriceFuture Cash FlowThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Dealing effectively with risks in complex projects is difficult and requires management interventions that go beyond simple analytical approaches. This is one finding of a major field study into risk management practices and business processes of 35 major product developments in 17 high-technology companies. Almost one-half of the contingencies that occur are not being detected before they impact project performance. Yet, the risk-impact model presented in this article shows that risk does not affect all projects equally but depends on the effectiveness of collective managerial actions dealing with specific contingencies. The results of this study discuss why some organizations are more successful in detecting risks early in the project life cycle, and in decoupling risk factors from work processes before they impact project performance. The field data suggest that effective project risk management involves an intricately linked set of variables, related to work process, organizational environment, and people. Some of the best success scenarios point to the critical importance of recognizing and dealing with risks early in their development. This requires broad involvement and collaboration across all segments of the project team and its environment, and sophisticated methods for assessing feasibilities and usability early and frequently during the project life cycle. Specific managerial actions, organizational conditions, and work processes are suggested for fostering a project environment most conducive to effective cross-functional communication and collaboration among all stakeholders, a condition important to early risk detection and effective risk management in complex project situations.

BackgroundThe research aims to assess the effectiveness of artificial intelligence models in predicting the risk level in tulip greenhouses using different varieties. The study was conducted in 2022 in the Almaty region, Panfilov village.ResultsTwo groups of 10 greenhouses each (area 200 m2) were compared: the control group used standard monitoring methods, while the experimental group employed AI-based monitoring. We applied ANOVA, regression analysis, Bootstrap, and correlation analysis to evaluate the impact of factors on the risk level. The results demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in the risk level in the experimental group, where artificial intelligence models were employed, especially the recurrent neural network “Expert-Pro.” A comparison of different tulip varieties revealed differences in their susceptibility to risks. The results provide an opportunity for more effective risk management in greenhouse cultivation.ConclusionsThe high accuracy and sensitivity exhibited by the “Expert-Pro” model underscore its potential to enhance the productivity and resilience of crops. The research findings justify the theoretical significance of applying artificial intelligence in agriculture and its practical applicability for improving risk management efficiency in greenhouse cultivation conditions.

Problem: In today’s unstable global business environment, the significance of risk management has increased due to corporate failures and crises, raising concerns among investors and regulators. Now, effective risk management is essential for long-term sustainability and success. Despite its critical role, many organizations still show noticeable gaps in their risk management practices. Purpose: To examine the role and effectiveness of risk management subcommittees in enhancing corporate governance, specifically focusing on insights gained from corporate scandals and subsequent reforms. Data and Methodology: This study employs a qualitative research methodology and analyzes secondary data from various sources. The study uses purposive sampling to analyze major scandals. It aims to uncover the systemic causes of corporate failures and the challenges companies face in recovering from crises, despite their management efforts. Additionally, it examines successful recovery cases and focuses on governance and risk management in enhancing corporate resilience. Results: Research on corporate scandals shows that risk management is often poorly aligned with corporate strategy and inadequately assessed from an enterprise perspective. This issue stems from the absence of independent risk management committees and limited oversight by audit committees. Many boards and management teams were unaware of their company's risks and engaged in unethical profit-boosting practices. Further, Current corporate governance standards fail to mandate separate risk management committees. Research Implications: The study examines various scandals across different companies and emphasizes the significance of the Risk Management Subcommittee in corporate governance. It suggests that regulators and standard setters should view this subcommittee as a crucial element in corporate governance and risk management, as it helps mitigate corporate failures, improve governance, and prevent future scandals. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that establishing risk management subcommittees is essential for effectively implementing corporate governance practices and ensuring the long-term resilience of organizations.

Moreover, there is an increasing amount of literature covering specific geotechnical risk analysis and management topics. Examples of these are the difference between unsafe geotechnical certainty and safe geotechnical uncertainty (Barends, 2005), the role of the human factor in achieving geotechnical reliability (Bea, 2006), objective and subjective ways of geotechnical risk classification (Altabba et al., 2004), and contractual allocation of geotechnical risk (Essex, 2007).

Introduction. Solving the problems of existing negative trends of increasing debt obligations in wartime and reducing the stability of the Ukrainian economy is possible by applying the policy of internal audit and internal control measures and is one of the directions for implementing the strategic goals of the National Economic Strategy for Revenues until 2030 in terms of improving the quality and efficiency of budget process management and public debt administration. This will ensure increased stability of the Ukrainian economy, its sustainable development during the period of Russian aggression, through effective preventive measures and effective management of fiscal risks, improve Ukraine's relations with international organizations, donor states in the financial sector, and the investment climate for foreign direct investment. Problem Statement. The growth of Ukraine's debt creates a zone of uncertainty in the functioning of its economic development. The absence of a body provided for by the legislation of Ukraine that manages public debt, the presence of a high level of fiscal risks, and the failure to apply existing instruments to manage them, reduces the ability to resist negative challenges and makes it impossible to predict the directions of development of the Ukrainian economy during the action of a complex of international, including military, negative factors. The purpose is to study the impact of fiscal risks on effective public debt management; to scientifically substantiate the use of internal audit and control tools in budget processes for the purpose of effective planning and use of public finances. Methods. General scientific, empirical, and special methods were used: observation, comparison, analysis, forecasting, description of events, comparison, theoretical generalization, and abstract-logical. Results. The international and national practice of legislative support for fiscal risk management, their impact on budget processes and public debt management, the application of internal audit and control rules and procedures, the state of debt policy and its impact on budget processes in the medium term were analyzed. Based on the results of the analysis of the state of debt policy, the study of the causes and conditions of public debt growth, negative trends in the financial regulation system, the possibility of using the internal audit and control system for the purpose of qualitatively introducing fiscal indicators for public debt management was analyzed. Conclusions. The results of the study have identified the causes and conditions of unsatisfactory fiscal risk management, which requires the introduction of new and effective use of existing public debt administration tools, the application of a risk-oriented approach developed by international financial organizations; the use of a fiscal risk management methodology in the internal audit and control system of state-owned enterprises, institutions and organizations, which takes into account permanent challenges to the stability of the national economy. The active use of internal audit and control tools creates conditions for effective public debt management, using a risk analysis system, including fiscal ones. The basis for effective management of public debt and fiscal risks is their timely determination in the face of the negative impact of foreign policy, economic, and military factors.

Construction projects in mineral processing plants in South Africa have high failure rates despite the availability of many risk management processes, tools and practices to project managers. This industry application paper investigates the effectiveness of risk management in mineral processing projects. The mining and mineral processing industry is one of the world's most uncertain and hazardous industries and in recent years South Africa has experienced its fair share of economic, political and industrial challenges. Despite these challenges, a recent survey revealed that many African mining executives remain focused on the importance of securing new projects to ensure future production and growth. These new projects include new and complex technologies aimed at increasing productivity and efficiencies in the extraction and processing of minerals. South African mining industry risks unique to the region include knowledge and skills shortage, quality of education, prevalence of HIV/AIDS, power outages, political involvement and increased talks on nationalization, insufficient expenditure on R&D projects and increased unionisation. The effective management of risks is essential for project performance especially in this particular industry, due to significant investments required as well as the combination of both construction and mining/mineral processing risks involved. The study uses qualitative research methods to collect and analyse data from project management practitioners involved in construction projects in mineral processing plants. Operational, financial, legal and compliance, political and SHE risks are identified as major risks that need to be effectively managed to reduce project failure. The actions and behaviours of leaders and followers in projects are found to precipitate project failure. These include limited risk knowledge and competence, complacency and poor collaboration with team members. Risk management processes are also noted as a problem as they tend to be complex and impractical. Finally, the lack of comprehensive application of formal risk management along all the stages of the project life cycle is found to have a negative effect on risk management. The study recommends the development of a risk management culture, project team training and the reassessment of the effectiveness of currently used risk management tools in order to improve project success rate.

Risk management is an increasingly important process for business entities operating in various industries. The essential problem in effective risk management is an appropriate calibration of the chosen risk model, which makes it possible to get results that are compatible with the feelings of the persons responsible for safety issues in a a given business entity. The paper presents the method of calibration of the risk model on the example of a model intended for hazards related to the technical condition of the railway infrastructure. A set of sample diagnostic recommendations ranked according to their subjectively evaluated validity was used for this purpose. The area of feasible solutions was defined and possible values of weights of accepted criteria were determined through computer simulation based on random number generator.

Effective risk management is crucial for the success of oil projects, particularly in volatile markets like Pakistan. This paper examines the key organizational capabilities and external factors that influence risk management practices and project performance in the Pakistani oil industry. Through a comprehensive literature review and analysis of industry reports, the study identifies critical risk factors, effective risk management strategies and the role of organizational competencies in navigating these challenges. The findings suggest that a proactive, data-driven approach to risk management combined with strong project management capabilities and stakeholder engagement can significantly improve project outcomes. The research provides valuable insights for oil companies operating in Pakistan offering a framework to enhance their risk management practices and increase the likelihood of successful project delivery. The oil industry is inherently complex and fraught with various risks ranging from political and economic instability to technological constraints and regulatory hurdles. Specific to the Pakistani context, the sector faces a unique set of challenges that can significantly impact project performance. Analyzing the interplay between organizational capabilities and external factors is crucial for developing effective risk management strategies to navigate these turbulent waters. This research aims to comprehensively examine the elements influencing project performance within the Pakistani oil sector. The study will explore how various risk management practices including risk identification, assessment, mitigation, and monitoring, might influence project results. The research will also examine how organizational competencies such as skilled personnel, risk management resources, and governance frameworks, can contribute to the successful delivery of oil projects in Pakistan. Pakistan's oil industry is subject to a range of context-specific challenges that can profoundly impact project implementation and performance. Effectively managing these risks is vital for oil companies operating in the country as inadequate risk management can compromise project safety, environmental protection and overall profitability.

Purpose. This study aimed to explore health professionals' perspectives regarding the presence, assessment and management of risks when providing community-based rehabilitation (CBR) to clients with acquired brain injury (ABI).Method. A qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews of health professionals working in CBR.Results. The main themes were: (1) risk assessment in CBR settings is an informal, unstructured, complex, multi-phase and cyclical process extending over a period of time; (2) structured and standardised risk assessments were not considered ideal for use in CBR services catering for people with ABI; (3) CBR services face numerous challenges in providing effective risk assessment and management; (4) the risks encountered by health professionals in CBR settings are not always predictable or preventable; and (5) CBR risk management focuses on implementing a range of practical strategies.Conclusions. A flexible risk assessment process supported by a range of practical risk management strategies to minimise and manage potential risks is advocated by health professionals working in CBR services for people with ABI. There is a need for more research into the effectiveness of current risk assessment and management strategies for CBR services.

Modern aspects of internal auditing already stated in the 21st century definition of internal auditing, indicate that internal auditing activities take part in the production of added value. Effective risk management is a source of added value. The economic crisis has turned liquidity risk into a liquidity crisis, necessitating more responsibility of internal auditing in the planning and ranking of the areas subject to auditing, based on the level of risk, thereby foregrounding liquidity. Internal auditing, through reassurance and advising (bearing in mind professional practice), makes a significant contribution to managing liquidity risk. In the case of insufficient funds, there arises the impossibility of placements and investing i.e. the impossibility of an increase in financing from external sources. This situation must be overcome and the financial gap must be closed by reducing the debt recovery for buyers, cutting down on tied selling, as well as by extending the deadline for repayment of liabilities to suppliers. Curtailing the cycle of reporting, processing and submission of documentation allows for early payment with the possibility of additional discounts.

Information technology (IT) risk management plays an important role in controlling security and building confidence in using IT system services.Many organizations have focused on risk management for IT security.In this study the committee of sponsoring organizations of the treadway commission (COSO) enterprise risk management (ERM) was used in risk management by identifying risk factors in accordance with the requirements of COBIT 5 areas that need to be controlled.In addition, 2 experiments were conducted with 3 government organizations and 3 business organizations in order to evaluate the performance of IT security control.The first experiment identified the risk levels with risk assessment, which provided the risk levels that need risk response in accordance with COBIT 5 framework implementation life cycle.From the second experiment, it was found that the risk management using all 7 phases of the COBIT 5 implementation life cycle decreased the risk levels for both government and business organizations.However, moderate and low risk levels were still observed which need to be managed in order to keep them at a very low level.In addition, it was found that the risks of government and Business organizations were different, which was a result of differences in obstacles and the context of the problems encountered in risk management.The findings of this study provide the guidelines for developing a framework for IT risk management in the future.