Эконометрическое прогнозирование бюджетных доходов (на примере Республики Таджикистан)

Despite rising federal income tax rates, verging on pre-emption of the income tax field during the war years,' state governments have been able to report a gradual increase in personal and corporate income tax revenue since 1933. State income from this source has risen from $153 million in 1932 to $1,084 million in 1948. The income tax has bettered its position in relation to all other state taxes. In 1932 income tax collections contributed 8 per cent of the total state tax revenue; by 1948 personal and corporate income taxes provided 14 per cent of total state tax revenue (including the unemployment compensation tax). A partial explanation for the increase in revenue derived from income taxation is the fact that 13 states adopted personal or corporate income taxation or both between 1933 and 1938.2 The steady growth of the national income since 1933, however, is primarily responsible for the advance in state income tax collections. It is against this background of rising national income that the comparatively insignificant role of the state income tax and the growing federal domination of the income tax field are most sharply revealed. (See Chart 2.) Any analysis, therefore, of recent trends of state income tax revenue must of necessity take into account the relationship to the federal income tax. In striking contrast to federal income tax experience the increase in state income tax since 1933 has barely kept pace with the growth of the national income. In fact, from 1942 to 1945 state income tax collections declined in relation to national income payments. Downward revisions of the personal income tax contributed to this relative decline of state income tax revenue. Confronted with treasury surpluses during the war, several state legislatures acceded to demands for tax relief in view of the mounting federal income tax rates. New York led the way with a 25 per cent personal income tax reduction in 1942. West Virginia and South Dakota repealed their personal income tax laws in 1943. In the same year the Wisconsin state legislature failed to extend the temporary 60 per cent surtax on individual income; California and Oregon reduced personal rates substantially; and Iowa and Maryland decreased the taxpayer's liability by granting liberal tax credits.3

The study provides an empirical analysis of tax impact on selected macroeconomic aggregates in Spain from 1996 to 2016. The objective of this research is to determine how tax forms effect on macroeconomic framework of Spanish economy. The analysis includes the impact of direct taxes such as personal income tax, corporate income tax and tax on property as well as social contributions. On the other hand, gross domestic product per capita, unemployment, inflation, investment and government expenditures are selected as the main macroeconomic determinants and present dependent variables in defined models. Results of defined model show that tax revenue growth, personal income tax, tax on property and social security contributions significantly affects the gross domestic product per capita. Further, personal income tax and corporate income tax have a significant impact on unemployment, investment and government expenditures. Findings show that the intensity of personal income tax' effect is higher on investment and government expenditures compared to corporate income tax. In addition, present tax structure does not have a significant effect on inflation, which can be explained by fact that indirect taxes are more related to inflation than direct taxes.

<title>Abstract</title> Using annual data from 1990 to 2022, this study examines the relationship of tax structure and economic growth in Vietnam. Data was collected from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Vietnam in order to conduct the analyses. To limit issues of bias and to observe the long-run and short-run relationship between the components of taxes and economic growth, Johansen cointegration and the error correction mechanism were used. The results suggest Petroleum Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax have a statistically significant positive effect whereas Personal Income Tax, Customs Duties and Excise Taxes were less favorable for growth. Overall, these results demonstrate a heterogeneous growth effect of different tax instruments. From a policy standpoint, this research indicates Vietnam should investigate changes to its revenue system structure, reducing reliance on distortive taxes, such as personal income tax and trade-related taxes, and strengthening the role of growth-enhancing taxes, including petroleum income tax and corporate income tax. Additionally, improving tax administration and tackling issues of tax evasion of corporate and value-added tax will be essential for achieving stable revenue and sustainable growth. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by providing disaggregated empirical evidence of the taxation–growth nexus within the context of a transition economy.

The personal income tax is the main budget-forming tax, which plays a significant role in the redistribution of personal income and ensuring budget adequacy. Due to this tax, the state has the opportunity to influence the level of income and savings of citizens, it is a social regulator. The objective of the paper is to form a mechanism for collecting personal income tax in Ukraine and to study the fiscal efficiency of personal income tax and to determine the main directions of personal income tax reform. The paper considers the mechanism of personal income tax collection, which is based on the Tax Code of Ukraine and the main elements of the taxation system. It is proved that the tax system of Ukraine is characterized by instability, fiscal orientation with a limited and poorly developed regulatory function. The foreign experience of personal income taxation, tax rates and features of taxation is investigated in this paper. In foreign countries, tax rates are progressive. First of all, it should be noted that wages make up most of the income of individuals, and sometimes it is the only source of income. Taking into account the fact that Ukraine does not apply progressive personal income tax rates, this causes social injustice. It is proposed to use the concept of marginal income and not to tax income in the form of wages in the amount of the minimum amount set for each year. One of the important aspects of reforming the tax system of Ukraine is the introduction of a single reporting on personal income tax and a single social contribution filed by tax agent. It is proposed to declare income and disclose information about the property status of all individuals for the previous year. This will help to control and compare the payment of personal income tax with other tax reports and fill the state budget. Establishing a tax culture of taxpayers and their cooperation with fiscal officials requires some time, during which they must actively carry out explanatory work by fiscal officials and implement a system of preventive measures against tax evasion or concealment of income, and then apply a strict system penalties to the payer. According to this system the payer is unprofitable to hide income, as the fine exceeds its size. These measures will not only ensure the implementation of the regulatory but also the fiscal function of the tax.

In the thirty years since the end of real socialism, Bulgaria has gone from having a rather radically ‘different’ tax system to adopting flat-rate taxation with marginal tax rates falling from figures as high as 40% to 10% for both the corporate and personal income tax. Crucially, the econometric forecasting models in use at the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance hinted at an increase in tax revenue compatible with the so-called ‘Laffer curve’. Similarly, many economists held the view that revenues should increase. However, reality fell short of those expectations based on forecasting models and rooted in mainstream economic theory. Thus, this paper asks whether there are better-performing forecasting models for personal and corporate income tax revenues in Bulgaria that are readily implementable and overperform the ones currently in use. After articulating a constructive critique of the current forecasting models, the paper offers readily implementable, transparent alternatives and proves their superiority.

Introduction - Income redistribution is central to the development of any nation. However, the issue of generating income and its redistribution in Nigeria has been challenging overtime, with the nation depending largely on oil with little consideration on other sources of income. Also, insufficient tax resources, tax collectors' illicit activities and a lack of awareness of the value of paying tax by taxpayers are some of the problems facing the country in terms of tax revenue generation. Objective - Our study therefore investigated the impact of direct taxes on income redistribution in the context of Nigeria, using company income tax, personal income tax, petroleum profit tax and education tax as direct tax variables. Methodology/Technique - The study covered the period 1990 to 2019 using annualized data set from Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study employed the Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) to analyze the data. Research Findings - Empirical results of our study revealed that, company income tax and education tax had insignificant negative effects on income redistribution, while personal income tax and petroleum profit tax had significant positive effects on income redistribution, thus reducing income inequality in the context of Nigeria. Recommendations - We thus recommended "inter alia" that, revenue generated from taxes should be effectively used by government in providing quality infrastructures like schools, railway, healthcare facilities and other business outfits across various states for the general wellbeing of the citizens as this is hoped to close the income distribution gap between the rich and the less privileged in the country. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Income redistribution; direct taxes; government expenditure on infrastructural goods; Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), Nigeria; Income Inequality. JEL Classification: E21; E42; E62; O23 URI: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/GJBSSR/vol9.2_8.html DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.2(8) Pages 182 – 196

The government of Ghana implemented an Economic Recovery Program (ERP) in 1983, aimed at the restoration of fiscal discipline towards increasing revenue and promoting economic growth. In spite of the fiscal reforms’ growth in tax, revenue continues to lag behind that of government expenditure and compares poorly with revenue performance in other parts of the world. Economic growth in the country also settled around 5 per cent level for two decades after the introduction of the fiscal reforms. This paper examined the effect of tax policy measures on economic growth and explored the tax revenue threshold that optimizes economic growth using time series data for the period 1970 - 2020. The data sets involve GDP per capita, stock of human capital, physical capital, growth rate of working population, and six (6) tax indicators namely: import duty, excise tax, company tax, personal income tax, income and property tax, and value added tax. The results of the unit root test reveal that all the variables are stationary at levels and first difference. The bounds test signals the existence of long run relationship among the variables at 1 per cent level of significance. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed- Lag technique, the findings suggested that economic growth benefits from increases in import taxes and company taxes more than the other types of taxes both in the short and long run. However, increases in the share of value added taxes and personal income taxes were found to have deleterious effect on economic growth in Ghana. A threshold level of 14.48 per cent of tax revenue - GDP ratio was found to be optimal level of taxes that impact economic growth. The study recommends that broadening, nurturing and sustaining tax base should be the utmost target of policy to ensure significant increase in the total government revenue to promote economic growth.

The personal income tax (the personal income tax of citizens in the Serbian tax system) makes the group of "standard" taxes which is mainly encountered in the tax structure of most countries (among corporate tax, consumption taxes and property tax). Personal income tax has a special place in the tax systems of modern states and the importance of income taxation can be seen not only in significantly large financial abundance, but also in the broad possibilities to be used as a convenient means for achieving non-fiscal goals of taxation. In the total revenues of the Republic of Serbia in 2015 participates with 4.7%. In our country with this tax is collected much less tax revenue than in developed countries. The reason for this should be sought in low-income and low number of employees. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the basic elements of this tax form in the Republic of Serbia, its yield, role and place in Serbian tax system.

Polish Deal from the perspective of financial independence of local government units. Purpose: The purpose of this chapter is to assess instruments that compensate local government units (LGUs) for the loss of income from shares in personal income tax and shares in corporate tax in connection with changes in these taxes as a result of Polish Deal program. The assessment was made from the point of view of the financial independence of local government units. Design/methodology/approach: The paper begins with outlining the changes in state income taxes in Poland. The next section concerns the method of assessing the “foreign” income of LGU in the context of financial independence. Then the instruments that compensate local government units for the loss in tax revenues were discussed and their assessment was made from the point of view of the financial independence of LGU. Findings: The following consequences of Polish Deal for LGU can be identified: 1) decrease in tax revenues, 2) deterioration of the structure of budget revenues (increase in the share of “foreign” revenues), 3) establishment of “rescue” instruments in the form of a subsidy development part and changes in the allocation of revenues from shares in state taxes. The financial consequences of the changes brought about by Polish Deal vary depending on the level of local government. The municipalities, including cities with poviat status, will feel them most acutely, as they have the highest share in personal income tax. The mechanism of dividing the development part of subsidy favors some local government units because it relates to the population size and not the actual loss of income from shares in state taxes. Instruments compensating the loss of income of LGU in connection with Polish Deal limit the financial independence of LGU and deepen the lack of transparency in the redistribution of income in the public finance sector in Poland.

Introduction. A significant share of tax revenues in the revenue part structure of the Consolidated budget of Ukraine forms the grounds for assessing the economic efficiency of established taxes in order to make managerial decisions in the budget and tax management field at the macro level. Therefore, it is important to analyse the fiscal effectiveness indicators of taxes that form the tax revenues majority to the budgets of Ukraine, as well as to identify socio-economic factors that affect the size of such revenues. The purpose of the article is to analyse the fiscal effectiveness indicators of budget-generating taxes, to perform a correlation analysis of the tax revenues dependence on macroeconomic indicators and substantiate ways to increase the tax revenues sources to budgets of different levels. Results. The scientists’ approaches to the definition of the essence of the category “fiscal efficiency” were considered as well as was monitored the volume and structure of tax revenues to the Consolidated budget of Ukraine for 2015–2020. The factors of fiscal effectiveness were investigated and its assessment was carried out on the basis of data on the revenues of value added tax, personal income tax, excise tax and corporate income tax to the Consolidated budget using indicators of the fiscal significance of the tax in the budget, the fiscal significance of the tax in the state GDP and the ratio of the predicted and actual indicators of tax revenues. It was performed a correlation analysis of budget-forming taxes with macroeconomic indicators, as a result of which close relationship has been determined between the number of introduced types of innovative products and the volume of value-added tax revenues of goods (work and services) produced in Ukraine; the volume of revenues from corporate income tax and capital investments made by business entities, as well as between the volume of revenues from excise tax and the number of unemployed population in Ukraine. Based on the results of the investigation, there were proposed and substantiated the ways of tax reforms and directions of government measures to increase tax revenues.

Government investments are pivotal for sustainable growth and improvement in the standard of living of citizens, address immediate needs and lay the foundation for future growth and development. Extant literature has associated Nigeria’s low economic development to declining government investment levels. Studies highlight the critical relationship between tax revenue (personal income tax, company income tax, value-added tax, petroleum profit tax) and government investment levels, as tax revenue funds public services and developmental activities. However, the influence of tax revenue on government’s investment levels in Nigeria remains a subject of considerable debate with studies offering contrasting perspectives. Therefore, this study examined the impact of tax revenue on government investment levels in Nigeria, utilizing 43 years (1980-2023) of data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank. Employing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares model, the findings indicated that tax revenue influences government investment levels in Nigeria. The study recommends that policymakers overhaul tax-based project funding systems for efficient allocation and utilization of tax revenues. In addition, it recommends the strengthening of tax administration in the country for effectiveness in tax revenue collection.

The aim of the article is to analyze the formation of local budget revenues in Ukraine under conditions of economic instability caused by a decade-long war and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify tendencies in the adaptation of the budgetary system of territorial communities to crisis challenges. The article examines the transformational processes of local budget revenue formation in Ukraine in the context of prolonged crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale war by the russian federation against Ukraine. It is substantiated that the financial decentralization implemented in Ukraine up to 2020 ensured an increase in the financial autonomy of local self-government bodies and strengthened the budget capacity of territorial communities. At the same time, starting from 2020, under the influence of crises, a reverse tendency can be observed – a decrease in the share of local budgets in the consolidated budget, centralization of financial resources, and a transformation of the role of inter-budget transfers. The study reveals that the tax revenues of local budgets have shown higher resilience to external shocks compared to transfers from the State budget. Special attention is devoted to the dynamics of key budget-forming taxes – personal income tax, single tax, corporate income tax, excise tax, and property taxes. It is analyzed how the State’s anti-crisis policy and changes in the behavior of local economic agents have influenced the filling of local budgets. The article outlines the current challenges associated with the collection of military personal income tax for the State budget, the decline in property tax revenues due to the loss of the tax base, and the changing role of transfers in supporting communities. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of strengthening the fiscal autonomy of territorial communities and developing tools to adapt local finances to the conditions of prolonged economic instability.

Tax evasion is an illegal act of not paying or underpaying tax. With a significant rise in the number of tax evasion cases in recent years, discussions based around this topic has increased overall. Its substantial level of severity not only affects the tax evaders themselves, but also influences the economy as a whole. Although there are many types of taxes that are likely to be evaded, for example corporate income tax, this essay aims to discover several aspects of tax evasion in personal income tax, such as the ways in which people tax evade, including the question of why people tax evade and real life examples of public figures. It focuses on the current consequences of tax evasion in today's society, including research conducted across different countries and how they deal with tax evasion cases. Moreover, detection methods of tax fraud used by tax authorities and the government are mentioned.

The Law Numbered 6009 Regarding the Amendments in the Personal Income Tax Law (PITL) and Certain Laws has been promulgated upon its publication in the Official Gazette dated 1 August 2010 and Numbered 27659. The Law imposes changes in several tax subjects: income tax tariff applicable to the salaries and wages retrospectively from 1 January 2010, investment allowance limited to 25% of the corporate income without any period limitations, tax rate on gains derived on income stated in Temporary Article 63 of Income Tax Law, certain corporate income tax (CIT) exemption and exceptions, social and military exceptions in Value Added Tax (VAT) Law, and some other tax issues. In this article, these tax law amendments are deeply analysed from the points of personal income tax (PIT), CIT, and VAT and the subjects are expanded by examples.

В статье проводится анализ сложившейся практики и тенденций налогообложении доходов граждан в России в условиях быстрого роста цен, развития финансового рынка, увеличения числа его непрофессиональных участников за счет населения, высокой волатильности и обвала цен на ценные бумаги. Установлен увеличивающийся запрос на справедливость налогообложения доходов населения, как со стороны самих граждан, так и со стороны научного сообщества. Изучение исследований в области повышения значимости социальной функции подоходного налога и справедливости в налогообложении доходов показало, что большинство авторов в своих научных работах большее внимание уделяют вопросам установления ставок НДФЛ, в частности прогрессивного налогообложения, а также установления минимального необлагаемого дохода в разных формах. В то же время анализ методов расчета налоговой базы по НДФЛ, в том числе норм Налогового кодекса РФ, методических рекомендаций и разъяснений Минфина и ФНС России, судебной практики, показал, что существуют серьезные проблемы в определении налоговой базы по подоходному налогу в части полноты учета расходов, необходимых для получения облагаемых налогом доходов. Данный факт не только приводит к необоснованному завышению величин налоговых обязательств, требуемых государственными органами с физических лиц, но и увеличивает объем доходов, скрываемых от налогообложения. Кроме того, фактически осуществляется дискриминация физических лиц при уплате налога с доходов по сравнению с юридическими лицами, уплачивающими с аналогичных по своей экономической сути доходов налог на прибыль организаций, поскольку у последних расходы при определении налоговой базы учитываются в большой мере. Исходя из вышеуказанного, сформированы рекомендации по совершенствованию методологического подхода к определению налоговой базы по НДФЛ. The article analyzes the current practice and trends in taxation of citizens’ incomes in Russia in the context of rapid price growth, the development of the financial market, an increase in the number of non-professional participants among the population, high volatility and securities collapse. An increasing demand for equity in taxation of incomes of the population has been established both from the citizens themselves and from the scientific community. The analysis of researches in the field of increasing the importance of the social function of income tax and equity in income taxation shows that most authors in their scientific works pay most attention to setting personal income tax rates, in particular, progressive taxation, as well as establishing a minimum non-taxable income in various forms. At the same time, the analysis of methods for calculating the tax base for personal income tax, including the norms of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, methodological recommendations and explanations of the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Tax Service of Russia, as well as judicial practice shows that there are serious problems in determining the tax base for income tax in terms of the completeness of accounting for expenses, necessary to earn taxable income. This fact not only leads to an unreasonable overestimation of the amount of tax liabilities required by government agencies from individuals, but also increases the amount of income hidden from taxation. In addition, individuals are actually discriminated against when paying income tax compared to legal entities that pay corporate income tax on incomes similar in their economic essence, since the latter take into account expenses to a large extent when determining the tax base. Based on the above, recommendations are formulated to improve the methodological approach to determining the tax base for personal income tax.