Личные сбережения, инфляция и демография в региональном колорите

Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union

Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models

Human capital in general spurs economic growth. Female human capital in terms of education and health in particular is important for economic growth in countries where poverty and gender inequalities are pervasive, such as Sudan. This study aimed to investigate the role of female human capital in economic growth in Sudan, together with female labor force participation and women’s participation in the national parliament. The study applied a basic autoregressive distributed lag model ARDL and a nonlinear (NARDL) accounting for structural breaks to time-series data over the period 1975–2021. The bounds tests revealed that female human capital variables and economic growth have a long-run equilibrium relationship. The empirical results revealed that female human capital has a negative effect on gross national income per capita (GNIP). However, female labor participation was found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth in both models. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS among women of age 14–25 has a significant negative effect on economic growth, which is likely also reflecting the negative effect of female human capital. Results also showed that women’s participation in the parliament has positive and significant effect on economic growth in the short run only. The study argues for enhancing female human capital via female enrollment in education and through the promotion of women’s health, including combatting HIV/AIDS. Effective female labor participation can be enhanced through reductions in women’s vulnerability in employment and increasing their work in waged formal sectors. Women’s political empowerment could foster long-term growth, but its quality aspects must be ascertained.

Understanding the pricing process in agricultural spot and futures markets is important for every market participant. In this article we analyse price discovery in the European wheat market based on the partial cointegration approach recently introduced by Clegg and Krauss (2017). Partial cointegration allows for not only transient but also persistent shocks to the long-run equilibrium relationship between two or more variables. By combining the concept of partial cointegration with state space modelling we are able to generate time-variant price discovery metrics that allow for shifts in the long-run relationship between futures and spot prices, for example due to changes in the quality composition of the wheat harvest from year to year, or due to changes in the specification of the futures contact. We find that price discovery is in general dominated by the futures market but that the spot market takes on greater significance for the pricing process during phases of higher price volatility. We also find evidence that the persistent shocks the long-run relationship between spot and futures prices estimated by the partial cointegration method are affected by the availability of high-quality wheat on the spot market.

The main purpose of this paper is to test the substitution hypothesis of saving for the case of Life Assurance and Pension Funds (LAPF) on the one hand, and other (personal and corporate) savings on the other. The focus is the postwar U.K. period. Earlier U.K. findings on this issue rejected the substitution hypothesis. Most, in particular time series studies though, are subject to various limitations : that is, they focused on a very short period of time : made an uncritical use of the official data, that may cast doubt on their results : estimated consumption functions, which do not explicitly allow the testing of the effects of LAPF on other than personal savings too, such as corporate retentions : finally, confined their attention to - in most cases - one specification of the consumption function.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative impact of financial sector development, government size and trade openness of a country on its economic growth. This is done to investigate which factors play more prominent role in leading the growth of the economy. Four ASEAN countries known for their similar economic orientation, namely Ma-laysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore have been selected for this purpose. To achieve the objective, a series of econometric tests is applied. These include unit root test and cointe-gration test. A vector error correction model (VECM) is then applied to capture both the short-run dynamic and the long-run equilibrium relationship between variables. Impulse response function is utilized to look at the impact of each variable on economic growth while variance decomposition is used to measure the magnitude of the impact. The results show that trade openness plays the leading role in promoting economic growth in Malaysia, Sin-gapore and Indonesia. For Malaysia financial sector development follows second and the government size comes third while for Singapore the order is reverse. For Indonesia, the government size overtakes the leading role at the later stage while the financial sector devel-opment is immaterial. For Thailand, no firm conclusion can be made, as the results are not promising. The results signify that the right policies have been taken by the selected coun-tries to promote higher economic growth. \n\nKeywords: Economic growth, financial sector development, government size, trade openness.\n

This study examines the causal relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and tourism development in Taiwan over the period from 1965 to 2010. Three Principle test results emerge from this study. First, test results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship and a bi-direction of causality between energy consumption and tourism development with one proxy, number of visitors, being more significant than the other, visitor expenditures. Second, a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth is observed. Third, test results indicate no reciprocal causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth. From an energy conservation and sustainable tourism point of view, it is suggested policy makers and industry leaders develop high value, high profit tourism products that aim on attracting more visitor expenditures rather than numbers of visitor.

This paper examines the relationship between the financial development, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Sri Lanka using quarterly data over the period 1996 to 2011. Johansen co-integration technique and vector error correction model are used to investigate the relationships. The results demonstrate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship and that there is bi-directional causality between the financial development and economic growth. Further, economic growth and financial development causes foreign direct investment, but no strong evidence that FDI causes economic development. Moreover, major implication of our findings is that financial development matters for the economic growth of Sri Lanka than foreign direct investment.

The relationship between international trade and economic growth has been an area of interest to many researchers in recent years. Although the literature is broad with respect to this topic, few studies have focused on the particular effect of cultural exports and imports on economic growth. This study addresses the relationship between trade in cultural goods and economic growth for 31 countries in Europe for the period 2004–2017, through a vector error correction model (VECM). A panel Granger causality test and a system generalized method of moments (GMM) are also utilized in this study. Cultural trade is characterized by exports and imports of cultural goods. The results indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between gross domestic product, total exports, capital formation and labour force. Cultural exports and imports have a positive effect on GDP in the long run. In the short run, there is Granger causality of cultural imports on economic growth, total exports, total imports and capital formation.

This paper aims to look at the long-run equilibrium relationship between CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions and economic growth (EKC hypothesis) in an asymmetric framework using the non-linear threshold cointegration. To test the robustness of the results the additional explanatory variables (time trend and/or energy consumption) are added to the EKC model. The empirical study is carried out for the European Union countries divided into three groups depending on a level of knowledge advanced economies in order to explain the differences in the dynamic linkage between CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions and economic growth. We have found that the EKC hypothesis is valid for all high-level and some middle-level knowledge advanced economies. The addition of energy consumption or time trend to the EKC model has affected the results in terms of the presence of threshold cointegration with an asymmetric adjustment process. These results suggest that the EKC model should be estimated using an approach accounting for asymmetric adjustment.

The objective of the paper is to identify the determinants of economic growth in Latin America for the period 1951-2000. For this, three fixed effects models with panel data are estimated, capable of controlling unobservable heterogeneity within the sample. The results show that the growth of the Latin American income level has a positive and significant relationship with the capital stock, population growth, final household consumption, gross capital formation and the volume of exports. While the number of inhabitants at any given time, the final consumption of the general government and the level of inflation have a negative relationship. The number of Latin American inhabitants grew, they had more wealth and income at the end of the XX century, their education levels increased and in general: their quality of life improved.

This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between exports and imports of the Iranian economy by employing bounds testing approach to level relationships. In Iran, there have been many unusual policy changes and/or external shocks to the economy; this has resulted in the occurrence of a multitude of structural breaks in macroeconomic variables. By taking these breaks into account, results of the present study reveal that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between imports and exports over the sample period, 1960–2007. This result confirms the finding of Arize (Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks, 2002) by employing bounds tests to level relationships and suggests that current account deficits in Iran are sustainable.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade at a market-determined price, which should be equal to their Net Asset Value (NAV) based on the law of one price. This study examines whether a long-run equilibrium relationship between the price and NAV exists for four South African-listed ETFs using Johansen’s cointegration. A common stochastic trend is found between the price and NAV for all the funds; however, this relationship only conforms to the law of one price for three of the four funds. Both the price and NAV are found to correct for the disequilibrium in the long-run relationship which is surprising as if the arbitrage process of creating and deleting units associated with ETFs was the predominant driver of the equilibrium relationship as theory suggests, then it would be expected that only the price would adjust to correct for any disequilibrium. The profile persistence analysis confirms that the deviations from the NAV do not persist. The findings of this study thus suggest that the market for ETFs in South Africa is reasonably efficient and hence retail investors are not likely to be exposed to substantial mispricing which could adversely affect their returns from holding ETFs. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n3p183

This study employs the bounds test for co-integration and Granger causality tests to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between financial development, international trade and real income growth for the Cyprus economy. The results of the study reveal that financial development as measured by broad money (M2), international trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred among these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that in Cyprus the growth in real income stimulates the growth of international trade (both exports and imports) and the growth of money supply. Furthermore, growth in imports of goods and services also stimulates a growth in exports of goods and services of Cyprus. Although this result contradicts our initial expectations, it indicates the importance of capital inflows in Cyprus that plays a major role in financing the investments mainly in the tourism sector. As a final point, the results of this study reveal that the supply-leading, export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses are not confirmed by this study whereas the demand-following hypothesis can be justified for the Cypriot economy when M2 measure of money supply is under consideration.

The Middle East is one of the biggest suppliers of energy resources in the world. Through electricity production, transportation, oil and gas industries, industrial heating, the quality of air, environment and the whole economy at large is being affected. It is on this premise, this study examine the long-run equilibrium relationship and Granger causality interaction between CO2 emissions, income per capita and energy use caused by these traffics. We employ second generation panel approach that account for cross-sectional dependency, panel bootstrap cointegration testing as introduced by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) and Granger causality testing procedure as proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). These econometrics techniques are robust for panel cointegration and panel Granger causality analysis. From our empirical results, we found evidence in support of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, a bidirectional causality running from CO2 to energy use, and unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to income per capita. However, between income per capita and CO2 emissions, income per capita to energy use and energy use to income per capita all without a feedback in the long-run. We propose significant policy implications based on our empirical results.