Концептуальные подходы и актуальные проекты формирования Большой Евразии

The research is aimed at identifying, describing and analyzing the problems of the formation and development of the modern Russian economy on the evolutionary and institutional basis of the Russian statehood and developing recommendations for the implementation of a promising state foreign and domestic economic policy. Goal. On the basis of historical and economic analysis, to identify the ways of further socio-economic development of Russia, the directions of the revival and strengthening of the Russian statehood, by activating the transport and transit direction «North-South», the formation of innovative and industrial belts of trade routes of the XXI century, connecting the country with the Islamic world. Tasks. Conducting historical and economic analysis of the evolutionary and institutional foundations of Russian statehood, forms of interstate and corporate partnership in the development, functioning and development of global trade routes in a broad sense. Substantiation of the Norman-Islamic theory of the origin of the Ancient Russian statehood based on the analysis of historical facts, as well as the logic of the origin, functioning and evolutionary development of trade routes. Identify the main areas of interaction and socio-economic development of Russia and the countries of the Islamic world and develop recommendations for political, economic, organizational and institutional changes. Methodology. The research uses the methods of evolutionary and institutional theory, the theory of production-technological balance, world system analysis and historical approach. The results of the study are based on the theory of transit economy developed by the authors, modeling the functioning of trade routes, and understanding the processes of formation and evolution of Global Eurasia. Results. It is determined that Islam became the state-forming factor of Ancient Russia through the displacement, the formation of new and the development of trade routes operated by the Normans. Three directions of the influence of the Islamic world on the formation of a united Ancient Russian state are identified: the search for new routes to Byzantium by the Normans after the expansion of the Arab Caliphate in North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula; establishment of direct relations with the Arab Caliphate along the Volga-Caspian water trade route; adoption of Islam by the neighbors of Ancient Russia - the Volga Bulgars, who have close trade relations with the Arab Caliphate and control the Volga-Caspian water trade route. Conclusions. The revival of modern Russia should and will be based on the functioning and evolutionary development of trade routes in the direction of «North-South» by establishing, expanding and strengthening contacts with the Islamic world. The creation and development of the Norman-Aryan Trade Route of the XXI century and its vast innovation and industrial belt should become a global political, economic, industrial and technological direction for ensuring interaction and socio-economic development of Russia and the countries of the Islamic world.

ЕАБР Специальный доклад 2018. Внешнеторговые операции стран – участниц ЕАЭС: Тенденции и потенциальные точки роста (EDB Special report 2018. Foreign Trade Operations of the Eurasian Economic Union Member Countries: Trends and Potential Growth Areas)

The countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will strengthen cooperation despite external pressure. This is also confirmed by the issues discussed at the meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the EAEU held in February 2022 in Nur-Sultan, where it was determined that the countries included in the Council will develop a common market for the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labor. All the EAEU member states continue to make necessary decisions for the development of trade, economic and humanitarian relations, improving the quality of life and wellbeing of citizens of their citizens. The article contains the results of scientific and applied research carried out using the methods of logical, systematic, comparative, economic and statistical analysis. The most important directions of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan, the economies of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and third countries are revealed, which have a significant impact on the development of integration processes of the EAEU, and to identify promising areas of cooperation in key sectors of the two largest economies. The dynamics of the openness of the economy of Kazakhstan over the past 20 years is considered. The contribution of Eurasian integration to the economic growth of Russia and Kazakhstan is assessed. The authors suggest possible promising areas of cooperation in key industries that contribute to strengthening economic relations between Russia and the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The study examines the representation of scientific research outcomes from member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) within the Russian scientific database eLIBRARY.RU in the field of economics and economic sciences. Methods of scientometric and bibliometric analysis were employed to analyze metadata from over 12 publications available in the scientific databases eLIBRARY.RU, Scopus, and Crossref. Recommendations have been formulated for the overall development of the Russian Federation and, specifically, for the eLIBRARY.RU platform as a center for scientific and technical cooperation among EAEU member countries. The results show that among the authors registered on the platform from the EAEU countries (other than the Russian Federation), the share of authors-economists from Belarus is higher than from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Armenia, however, it is generally small. The authors from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia have a similar distribution of average values in terms of published materials, however, unlike Belarus, there are almost no registered economic authors with a significant number of publications in these countries. A significant absence of previously published works, archival data and an extremely small number of indexed economic scientific peer-reviewed publications from the EAEU member states were also revealed on the platform. None of the journals of Russia’s EAEU counterpart countries presented on the eLIBRARY.RU, is not included in the list of the Higher Attestation Commission, the core of the RSCI, Web of Science or Scopus. In addition, it was determined that in the EAEU countries there is a wide range of thematic areas of economic and interdisciplinary research covering education, digital technologies, agriculture and other areas. Among them there are general thematic areas that unite science in the EAEU countries, including globalization, digital transformation, agriculture, sustainable development, innovation, education and others. Based on the results obtained, the team of authors formed recommendations for the development of the Russian Federation as a whole, and the eLIBRARY. RU, in particular, as a center for scientific and technical cooperation of the EAEU member states.

Russia and non-regional States have recently shown fresh interest in the countries of the former Soviet Union. The rivalry between Russia and the United States for the post-Soviet territory, beginning after the collapse of the USSR, has broken new ground. Russia considers the post-Soviet space as an area of vital interests. Economic and political relations with its neighbors, the internal political situation in the former Soviet Republics have a direct impact on the development of Russia. These determinants can explain the renewed interest in Eurasian integration and an integration project — the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). However, the USA hardly welcomes such aspirations of Russia and the support for the integration project on the part of some post-Soviet countries. The American side has no interest in the newly emerging regional centers of influence in the post-Soviet space, regarding this as a threat to its interests. Countering the development of Eurasian integration and strengthening the EAEU influence is the focus of US policy in this regard. The EAEU member countries are consistently taking steps to develop integration despite obstacles from the West. The long-term objectives, defined in various documents by the countries, should put them on a new path of economic cooperation. Eurasian integration faces a number of difficulties along with the successes, achieved since the creation of the EAEU. The world economy problems, in addition to internal ones, exert a considerable influence. They intensified after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, which negatively affected the development of the EAEU countries. The internal political problems faced by the EAEU countries adversely affect integration. The internal political crisis in Belarus, beginning in the later 2020, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, worsened internal political struggle in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are the factors that influenced the work of the EAEU last year and early 2021. Nevertheless, economic difficulties and political events in specific countries, the pursuit of non-regional states to influence the elites of the former Soviet states have not altered the foreign policy priorities of the EAEU member states.

Member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) highlight digital transformation as a priority strategic direction of development within the framework of the integration association. Active implementation of digital technologies will significantly increase the competitiveness of companies. The development and implementation of technological innovations are becoming important in business development and digital transformation in the EAEU countries. The subject of this study is marketing policy in the EAEU countries. The article presents an analysis of the role of technological innovation in business development and digital transformation in the EAEU countries; the features of creating a favorable digital business environment in the countries of the Union are considered, the positions of the EAEU in the global innovation index and other international rankings are analyzed. The study identified problems that require resolution for businesses to achieve their goals in the digital economy, and opportunities for business with the further diffusion of digital technologies.

Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GLOBE v1 we investigate various scenarios of the integration in the Pacific Rim within the framework of the Trans­Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). For the considered scenarios we obtained forecasts of changes in GDP, aggregate exports and sectoral output, which are stable for changes in input parameters of the model. CGE­modelling of considered Free trade areas (FTA) was performed via mutual zeroing­out import tariffs for FTA­member countries. As tariff values applied in the model for countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) we used our calculations of trade value weighted averages for Common Customs Tariff rates of EAEU. It was shown that non­participation of the EAEU in the Pacific Rim’s integration has a very small positive impact on the economies of the EAEU countries. Meanwhile, participation is generally beneficial for all EAEU countries and it gives more or less noticeable gains in key macroeconomic indicators, though it creates risks for some sectors. Joining TPP will be the most beneficial for EAEU only under the condition of China’s participation in TPP. Due to the uncertainty of China’s joining TPP a good alternative for EAEU is its entry into RCEP. In the case of EAEU’s accession to the RCEP Russia’s real GDP is expected to grow in the long­run by 0,74% (about 10 billion US dollars). For some sectors the answer to the question whether in a particular sector will be observed growth or decline in output levels is determined by the scenario of integration — these sectors are at risk: chemical, rubber and plastic products; motor vehicles and parts; wood and paper products; textiles; wearing apparel; food production sector.

This article offers a comprehensive analysis of various aspects of the financial integration of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) at its present stage of development. Opportunities and prospects, risks, and limitations were analyzed from the point of view of Russia’s national interests, taking into account the country’s EAEU presidency in 2018. Financial integration should be deepened; it could have a powerful systemic effect and help accomplish several interrelated goals, such as giving a new impetus to Eurasian integration and overcoming the relative stagnation caused by the exhaustion of the natural integrational effects of the EAEU’s “start-up stage.” At the same time, the authors assume that (in the absolute majority of cases) EAEU countries have common interests in the financial aspect of integration. A successful Eurasian project could lead to the adoption of a multilateral approach with an emphasis on concerted actions, which would make financial integration beneficial to all members of the EAEU, individually and collectively alike. The article presents an in-depth analysis of the Eurasian Economic Commission’s (EEC) regulatory documents and compares the EAEU’s financial integration with that of other integration associations (such as the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations). The analysis identifies the most promising areas of financial integration in the medium term, taking into account members’ obligations. The list of priority measures to step up integrational cooperation aimed at creating a single financial market is presented at the supranational (for the EAEU) and national (for Russia) levels.

Worldwide experience has shown that interstate economic integration can help states in strengthening of management of transboundary waters and international water law serves as a reference for developing of relevant interstate cooperation. Transboundary waters in Central Asia play important role in the economic cooperation among riparian states, including those who are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). At the current stage of transboundary waters management in Central Asia, the obsolete legal status is evident. The international water law sources developed under the United Nations’ auspices have no binding application due to luck of formal membership of the EAEU states in these treaties. Also the regional set of regulations, especially for the Aral Sea Basin, needs further enhancement and more efficient implementation. The bilateral interstate regulatory framework of the managemennt of waters shared by EAEU states in Central Asia requires development of additional rules to enable better accommodation of challenges existing in terms of the current interstate cooperation. Having said that can one further assume that EAEU could serve as a new legal framework for more effective cooperation on transboundary watercourses in Central Asia? The answer might be yes, but… the current stage of the legal framework for cooperation on transboundary waters within the EAEU requires sufficient enhancements in terms of developing its legal and institutional framework. The first condition for EAEU to serve as framework for cooperation on transboundary waters of Central Asia is to strengthen the regulatory framework for the cooperation of EAEU member states regarding environmental issues in general and transboundary water relations in particular, able to accommodate two main goals: environmental protection on the one hand and economic development on the other hand. The EAEU legal framework shall also lead to improvement of existing institutional cooperation and a dispute settlement mechanism on transboundary waters shared by the member states of the EAEU.

Amid geopolitical tensions and the disruption to established supply chains, traditional transport links are undergoing significant transformation. In this context, the importance of certain international transport corridors (ITCs) in Eurasia is growing, although they sometimes compete with each other on certain routes. This paper aims to identify and comprehensively examine the challenges and prospects of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states’ participation in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The research reveals that key obstacles to the intensified involvement of EAEU countries in the corridor include infrastructure bottlenecks, the elimination of which requires significant capital investment, the lack of direct access to the route (as in the case of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan), and the high cost of transportation via the corridor. At the same time, the route holds considerable potential in terms of diversifying transport links of the EAEU member states; increasing trade volumes with partner countries along the corridor (both those directly located on the route and those ‘gravitating’ towards it); unlocking transit potential (mainly for Russia and Kazakhstan) and strengthening the transport sovereignty of the EAEU countries (particularly for Russia and Belarus). Moreover, the development of the corridor can significantly enhance regional transport connectivity. It is assumed that if the corridor is successfully developed and the quality of transport and logistics services along its routes improves, it will be possible to reduce the logistics costs for foreign trade participants, boost exports of goods and transport-logistics services from EAEU countries to countries along the corridor (and eventually ‘gravitating’ towards it), and, consequently, accelerate their economic growth. In its turn, this motion might imply mutual political concessions.

Digital and information technologies have become an integral part of the existence of the modern world community and a management tool both in states and in associations of states. The questions of the impact of digitalization on the development of the Eurasian economic integration are disclosed and its impact on economic growth and competitiveness of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is determined. The purpose of the study is to analyze the development of digitalization processes in the EAEU countries. The key directions of formation of the institutional environment have been studied. The digital policy of the EAEU is shown, the corresponding rating assessment of each country of the association was carried out using separate international indices. Perspective directions for the development of cross-border regions with in the framework of the EAEU in the context of the digital economy are considered. The conclusion is drawn that digitalization plays the role of a driver of economic integration

The article considers the main aspects that characterize the economic security system of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and means to ensure economic security that contribute to increasing economic potential and to creating conditions for the effective development of integration processes. The authors investigated the main documents of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), a constantly acting regulating body of the EAEU, and developed recommendations for creating unified strategies of the economic security of the Eurasian Economic Union that can be implemented in the system of risk management that, in turn, is based on the controlling toolkit. In the process of the research it was determined that the political aspect alone is not enough for the preservation and effective development of the Eurasian Economic Union as common economic interests and possible effects from their implementation are the crucial components of viability of any integration union including the EAEU country members. In this regard the formation of the system of economic security of the integration union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan is a relevant issue. In order to contribute to the integration of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union that is based on the geopolitical aspect it is necessary to ensure economic security which determines both the theoretical and practical significance of the study. At the same time such integration would promote the unification of the EAEU countries that are different in the level of their socio-economic development.

Russian and Chinese initiatives in Central Eurasia cannot be considered separate or mutually exclusive - Eurasian integration and the Silk Road Economic Belt complement rather than contradict each other. Successfully conjoining the two projects directly depends on Russian-Chinese relations that are based on mutual respect and political trust. Both sides are equally interested in maintaining a stable and safe Central Asia for fruitful cooperation, not competition. However, more systematic and consistent work between the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and China requires a strong and effective institutional basis and structure. The solution thus includes two important aspects. The first implies a more powerful Eurasian Economic Commission and the extension of its competence to new areas. The second means creating a special institution for intergovernmental cooperation, which could serve as a platform for a multilateral dialogue and provide ongoing day-to-day support for decision-makers and different experts of all levels. Such a mechanism would also help to elaborate a common position and policy on China for the five EEU countries. The conjoining of the EEU and the Silk Road initiative would not only boost trade among states but is necessary to develop infrastructure and investment programmes. Such a multifaceted agenda would require serious technical preparation as well as force EEU countries to compromise, because only with consent can members truly benefit.

This chapter discusses the issues of industrial cooperation between Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, including its organization. Regulatory documents and specific areas of cooperation are considered. The calculations could suggest the conclusion that the level of intra-industry cooperation affects the growth of mutual trade. This chapter covers the analysis of the problems hindering the progress of industrial cooperation and concludes that their settlement could contribute to the further development of cooperation within the EAEU.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was founded in 1992 for military-economic cooperation of member countries and mainly reflects the intention of Russia to maintain its zone of influence on the territory of the former USSR. In continuation of this policy, an agreement was concluded on the foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which began its operation in 2015 and provides a certain freedom of movement of goods (services), capital and labor. These organizations provide effective interaction between the CSTO member states and the EAEU including common space between the countries and their development in a single trajectory, which allows to obtain a synergistic effect on the international arena. Thus, it is necessary to monitor the level of military-economic cooperation between the CSTO and EAEU member states. The purpose of this article was to study the challenges and threats to the Russia of military-economic cooperation of the CSTO and EAEU member states with third countries. To achieve this goal, military-economic cooperation of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia with third countries was examined and proposals were made for replacing purchases on the arms market with Russian counterparts. Some CSTO and EAEU countries seek to diversify their purchases in the arms market, providing a program of independent military development with the development of military-industrial cooperation with third countries. This situation forces Russia to ensure the development of plans for the import substitution of military products with Russian counterparts on the market of the CSTO and the EAEU. To test this hypothesis, we reviewed and analyzed publicly available statistics and documents, including data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In the course of data analysis, it was proved that Belarus, Kazakhstan and partially Armenia diversify their purchases of military equipment and weapons by actively developing military-economic cooperation with third countries, including China.