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  • https://doi.org/10.12737/monography_5b5ff8c2374dd8.52922931Copy DOI Icon

Модели и показатели техносферной безопасности

  • Jul 31, 2018
  • Юрий Есипов +5 more
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Abstract

The monograph "Models and indicators of technosphere safety" is based on previously published works of the authors and represents an attempt from engineering positions to present and reveal by examples the order and sequence of actions of the expert on the construction of logical models and parametric conditions of occurrence of accidents and their prerequisites mainly by means of the parametric model "impact – attenuation – susceptibility". The analysis and systematization of the main methods of calculation of safety indicators and (or) risk of the system based on the probability or possibility as an "objective" or "subjective" measures. Elementary logical models are systematized, which are obtained on the basis of the analysis of linguistic models of incidents in specific systems of the type "protection – object – environment – person". Collected rules convert the logical models in probabilistic and vozmozhnostey (fuzzy) functions of the vertex of the outcomes and presents the typical options of calculation of indicators of the system. Developed and illustrated with a parametric model allowing to calculate the probability and (or) vozmozhnostyu measures apical outcomes in a complex system of almost the entire range of values of the parameters of exposure and susceptibility. A combined version of the calculation of probability and possibility measures for the reduced parametric safety margin of the system is obtained and tested using an additional error function and the obtained analytical and calculated dependences of the possibility function of the vertex outcomes. On the basis of the proposed models and methods, the calculation of safety and risk indicators of specific technical and environmental systems was performed. Performed set-theoretic and a linguistic formalization of the task of assessing the levels of insurance contributions to the statistically unusual systems. The monograph was developed the unified issues of formalization, modeling and evaluation safety and risk of complex technical and (or) ecological systems with the aim of developing a model of logical and parametric models to the assumptions of the accident and (or) emergencies. The widespread consideration of these theoretical issues will eventually lead to the creation of a single statistical data Bank for practical tasks in labour protection, insurance and various types of examination. In didactic aspect the presented material serves as a basis for a comprehensive presentation of such academic disciplines as "System analysis and modeling of safety", "Calculation of safety and risk indicators", "Fundamentals of Risk", "Monitoring of safety", "Noxology", which contributes to the success in the implementation of training tasks and practical work on the analysis, justification and (or) optimization of methods and means of protection of workers and potentially dangerous objects.

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