海難船舶に関する自己完結性の定量評価法と20世紀後半における時系列解析結果による今日的特徴

In order to reduce casualties in traffic accidents, more analyses are required from the engineering and medical science viewpoints when investigating traffic accidents. A key technology in this respect is injury prediction, which reduces the response time of the emergency rescue teams through automatic collision notification, and evaluates the injury mechanisms and risks. In this study, research questions are clarified by studying the factors that influence side impact crashes in traffic accidents in Japan, and determining significant factors that reduce accident casualties by constructing an injury prediction method. In this study, statistical accident analysis is applied to a combination of data obtained from the Institute for the Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in-depth accident investigation database (Micro Data) and ITARDA Macro Data which is the official database for traffic accidents that occur throughout Japan. First, 73 nearside and 108 farside crashes are selected from Micro Data. Second, an object variable and 22 explanatory variables from the accident information are selected and categorized. The object variable is the maximum of AIS (MAIS). Third, an ordinal logistic regression analysis is performed to construct the injury prediction models using these variables. Finally, a comparison of the obtained results with Macro Data validates these models, and the outlier cases show extraordinary accidents. The results show that the significant factors are delta-V, damage grade, and striking vehicle weight for nearside crashes; and delta-V, vehicle category, lap zone-vertical, and seat belt use for farside crashes. Thus, these two types of crashes have different factors. The MAIS predictive accuracy rate is approximately 75, and the judgment rate of fatal and serious injuries (MAIS 3+) is approximately 90 %. The prediction models can correspond to Macro Data. The accident conditions arising from ±1 MAIS residual exhibit several characteristics. Eight cases with a large degree of error in nearside crashes involved five cases of SUV or truck side impact crashes with serious chest injuries. In farside crashes, 12 cases with a large degree of error included four unbelted drivers with serious head or neck injuries. These cases indicate that these extraordinary accidents have additional factors that influence injuries. At present, there is no published research on the side impact prediction method using Japanese Micro Data and Macro Data. In the United States, several injury prediction methodologies have been studied. However, only a few studies refer to accidents with residuals. In conclusion, this study shows the results of the proposed injury prediction methods and significant factors in side impact crashes by using data on traffic accidents in Japan. These prediction models can correspond to documented accident data. Furthermore, the residual analysis conducted indicates characteristic accident factors such as SUV side impacts for nearside crashes and unbelted drivers for farside crashes. Further investigations into these outlier accidents would prove beneficial in reducing traffic accident casualties in Japan.

The incidence of traffic accidents in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) is high in the USA. However, the characteristics of patients, including dietary habits, differ between Japan and the USA. The present study investigated the incidence of traffic accidents in CLD patients and the clinical profiles associated with traffic accidents in Japan using a data-mining analysis. A cross-sectional study was performed and 256 subjects [148 CLD patients (CLD group) and 106 patients with other digestive diseases (disease control group)] were enrolled; 2 patients were excluded. The incidence of traffic accidents was compared between the two groups. Independent factors for traffic accidents were analyzed using logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. The incidence of traffic accidents did not differ between the CLD and disease control groups (8.8 vs. 11.3%). The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that yoghurt consumption was the only independent risk factor for traffic accidents (odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.85; P=0.0197). Similarly, the results of the decision-tree analysis showed that yoghurt consumption was the initial divergence variable. In patients who consumed yoghurt habitually, the incidence of traffic accidents was 6.6%, while that in patients who did not consume yoghurt was 16.0%. CLD was not identified as an independent factor in the logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. In conclusion, the difference in the incidence of traffic accidents in Japan between the CLD and disease control groups was insignificant. Furthermore, yoghurt consumption was an independent negative risk factor for traffic accidents in patients with digestive diseases, including CLD.

Trends of traffic fatalities and DNA analysis in traffic accident investigation

Automobile accidents have kept on increasing year after year in postwar Japan as motorization has continued to progress. Though the annual totals of deaths and injuries reached a peak in 1970 and then started to decline (see Table 1), the National Police Agency reported 7.6 deaths per 100,000 of population and 516 injuries in automobile accidents during 1975. (It may be noted that the number of deaths tends to be underestimated by by the police.) Compared to other countries, Japan's automobile death rate per 100,000 of population is not particularly high. The number of deaths per 10,000 cars in Japan exceeded the numbers in other countries in 1970 but came closer to the latter in 1973 (see Table 2). Of automobile accidents by type, deaths of pedestrians and cyclists comprise 48 per cent of all deaths, in contrast to only 19 percent in the United States (see Table 3). (1) Needless to say, the distressing increase of traffic accidents is raising numerous social problems. (2)

<div class="htmlview paragraph">The relationship between car size and occupant injury is examined using traffic accident data from all over Japan. For head-on collisions, the occupant injury rate is formulated based on the approximation of occupant injury by delta-V. The effects on occupant injury of the sizes of the striking and struck vehicles, as well as the effects of seat belt use and vehicle velocity, are examined in head-on, side-impact and single-car collisions.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">As occupant injuries are also influenced by the other car or cars involved in a collision, the number and size distribution of vehicles is important. Sensitivity analysis shows that the effect of the number of lighter cars is greater in head-on collisions and that the effect of the number of heavier cars is greater in side-impact collisions, relative to the total number of fatalities.</div>

Analysis of emergency survival rate after traffic accidents in Japan

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">A vehicle-to-vehicle communication system (V2V) sends and receives vehicle information by wireless communication and assists safe driving. The present study investigated the activation timings of collision information support, collision caution support, and collision warning support provided by a V2V in an experiment using a driving simulator for four situations of (1) assistance in braking, (2) assistance in accelerating, (3) assistance in making a right turn, and (4) assistance in making a left turn at a blind intersection. The four situations are common scenarios of traffic accidents in Japan. Safety margins for collision information support and collision warning support were the time required for the driver to fully apply the brake pedal, while the safety margin for collision caution support was the time required for the driver to begin applying the brake pedal. The study investigated the effects of adding safety margins to standard activation timings. The standard activation timings referred to activation timings defined by V2V guidelines of the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. The effects of new activation timings were investigated in the experiment. Objective (based on the use of the accelerator and braking pedals) and subjective evaluations were made of the activation timings. As result, in the case of collision warning support, the appropriate activation timing of V2V is 2.0 s in all experimental conditions. The timing of 2.0 s means that the safety margin is added twice to the standard activation timing. The collision caution support has appropriate activation timing if the safety margin is added once to the standard activation timing under several experimental conditions. In the case of collision information support, the appropriate activation timing was the addition of one safety margin to the standard activation timing in all experimental conditions.</div></div>

ABSTRACTObjective: To reduce the severity of injuries and the number of cyclist deaths in traffic accidents, active safety devices providing cyclist detection are considered to be effective countermeasures. The features of car-to-bicycle collisions need to be known in detail to develop such safety devices.Methods: The study investigated near-miss situations captured by drive recorders installed in passenger cars. Because similarities in the approach patterns between near-miss incidents and real-world fatal cyclist accidents in Japan were confirmed, we analyzed the 229 near-miss incident data via video capturing bicycles crossing the road in front of forward-moving cars. Using a video frame captured by a drive recorder, the time to collision (TTC) was calculated from the car's velocity and the distance between the car and bicycle at the moment when the bicycle initially appeared.Results: The average TTC in the cases where bicycles emerged from behind obstructions was shorter than that in the cases where drivers had unobstructed views of the bicycles. In comparing the TTC of car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents to the previously obtained results of car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents, it was determined that the average TTC in car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents was significantly longer than that in car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents.Conclusions: When considering the TTC in the test protocol of evaluation for safety performance of active safety devices, we propose individual TTCs for evaluation of cyclist and pedestrian detections, respectively. In the test protocols, the following 2 scenarios should be employed: bicycle emerging from behind an unobstructed view and bicycle emerging from behind obstructions.

Objective: To reduce the severity of injuries and the number of pedestrian deaths in traffic accidents, active safety devices providing pedestrian detection are considered effective countermeasures. The features of car-to-pedestrian collisions need to be known in detail to develop such safety devices. Methods: Because information on real-world accidents is limited, this study investigated near-miss situations captured by drive recorders installed in passenger cars. We showed similarities of the contact situation between near-miss incidents and real-world fatal pedestrian accidents in Japan. We analyzed the near-miss incident data via video capturing pedestrians crossing the road in front of forward-moving cars. Using a video frame captured by a drive recorder, the time to collision (TTC) was calculated from the car velocity and the distance between the car and pedestrian at the moment that the pedestrian initially appeared. Results: The average TTC in the cases where pedestrians were not using a pedestrian crossing was shorter than that in the cases where pedestrians were using a pedestrian crossing. The average TTC in the cases where pedestrians emerged from behind obstructions was shorter than that in the cases where drivers had unobstructed views of the pedestrians. Conclusions: We propose that the specifications of the safety device for pedestrian detection and automatic braking should reflect the severe approach situation for a pedestrian and car including the TTC observed for near-miss incidents.

<div class="htmlview paragraph">The number of whiplash accidents is an appreciable portion in the total automobile accidents. The purpose of this study is to measure the impact in very low-speed vehicle collisions and to clarify the mechanism of whiplash in low accelerations.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">In low-speed collisions, the change of total momentum of both vehicles before and after a collision cannot be considered to be nil but equals to the impulse of tire friction and rolling resistance. Consequently, the acceleration of struck vehicle depends on whether the emergency brake is applied or the engine stalls during a collision. The neck of a dummy was modified for the whiplash studies and the improved neck is found to well duplicate human passengers by comparing dummy's head motions with already reported human and cadaver experiments. It was found by the study that a head-rest and an elastic bumper stay are very effective to prevent whiplash for low speed rear-end collisions of few km/h.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">MORE THAN 40% of total injuries in automobile accidents in Japan are whiplash and more than 30% of total automobile insurence payments for injuries are against whiplash. Whiplash, in some cases, persists for years but usually no obvious symptoms show up with radiological or other quantitative diagnostic techniques. Since there is no externally visible evidences and the injuries are based solely on victim's complains, it is sometimes difficult to justify the causative relation of the whiplash and the particular accident. It is desirable to establish criteria and to clarify mechanisms of suffering whiplash and hence to suggest preventive measures for the injury.</div>

The Semani Drainage Works Project (Sentosa-Remaja-A. Yani) is an initiative in the development of waterways in Samarinda City. The large-scale development and the high level of risk of work accidents on the project require close monitoring of the Environment-Based Occupational Health and Safety Management System (SMK3L). This study aims to identify potential hazards and analyze the risks of potential hazards and design improvements to reduce the impact of risks using the Hazard Identification Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC) method. The result of this research is the discovery of 117 potential hazards on projects located in three different locations. Where the drainage work on Jalan Pemuda 1 has a low risk level (low) of 21%, a moderate risk level (moderate) of 38%, a high risk level (high) of 41%, and an extreme risk level (extreme) of 0%. For drainage work on the D.I. Pandjaitan road, it has a low risk level (low) of 18%, a moderate risk level (moderate) of 31%, a high risk level (high) of 51%, and an extreme risk level (extreme) of 0%. And for the level of risk in drainage work on Sentosa road has a low risk level (low) of 18%, a moderate risk level (moderate) of 36%, a high risk level (high) of 46%, and an extreme risk level (extreme) of 0%. Risk control or improvement design focuses on Engineering Control and administration as well as Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).

PT Barokah Galangan Perkasa is a company located in East Kalimantan that is engaged in the manufacturing, repair, and maintenance of ships. The welding activity is the most dominant in shipbuilding, but the implementation of the occupational health and safety (OHS) system is not optimal. There have been several work accidents in the upper accommodation and cargo oil tank areas, such as falling from a height, being hit by welding sparks, and an electrical short circuit. The working conditions in this area are quite risky. Therefore, research on risk analysis is needed. HIRARC is a method for identifying a problem that is assessed at risk based on the likelihood and severity where the results of the assessment can determine the level of risk and give risk control for each work activity. Research results show that there were 40 potential hazards in the upper accommodation area with 77% low risk level, 12% moderate risk level, 8% high risk level, and 3% very high risk level. While in the cargo oil tank area there was 37 potentials hazard with 84% low risk level, 13% moderate risk level, and 3% high risk level. By knowing the risk level, companies can identify work activities that require prioritized improvement. They can also determine appropriate control to prevent the occurrence of such risks. Risk control in the upper accommodation area can be achieved through the implementation of administrative controls, utilization of PPE, and technical engineering controls.

Background: Risk stratification in early-stage breast cancer patients still remains a clinical challenge. It is well known that expression of ER/ PR, HER2 and Ki-67 are valuable prognostic and predictive markers. According to the commonly used St. Gallen classification (2013), breast cancer treatment decisions can be based on four different subtypes (Luminal A-like, Luminal B-like [HER2+/-], HER2 + [non-luminal] and Basal-like). Immunohistochemistry is predominantly used to determine the receptor status, although semi-quantitative analysis shows significant inter-observer variability. Several quantitative gene expression tests – such as Oncotype DX© and EndoPredict© – are available as diagnostic tools but their use is often limited due to financial considerations. MammaTyper© has been shown to be a precise and reproducible biomarker determination tool to investigate the expression of ER/ PR, HER2 and Ki-67 and may prove to be a cost efficient quantitative diagnostic tool. Methods: This study tested ESR-1, PGR, MKI67 and ERBB2 mRNA-levels by RT-qPCR in 100 FFPT-samples using MammaTyper© kit. The test identified breast cancer subgroups according to St. Gallen classification. RT-qPCR results were correlated to IHC-test results via χ2-Test and to risk groups of Oncotype DX©- (n=55) and EndoPredict©-testing (n=45). Oncotype©-Recurrence Score levels were separated into low (RS <18), intermediate (RS 18-30) and high risk (RS ≥ 31). EndoPredict© EPScore© and EPclin Risk Score© cut off levels defining high and low risk levels were 7.0, respectively 3.3. Linear regression model was performed investigating the prediction of EPscore© and Recurrence Score© via MammaTyper© mRNA-results. Results: IHC-testing resulted in 43 Luminal A-like samples (43%) and 57 Luminal B-like [HER2 negative] (57%) tumors. MammaTyper ©-based classification showed significant correlation to IHC-based classification (χ2=12,68; p=0,005). EndoPredict©-data showed low-risk levels in 36 patients (80%) and high-risk status in 9 cases (20%). Correlation to mRNA-based St. Gallen-subtypes approved significance (χ2=17,32, p<0,001). In linear regression model only MKI67-mRNA showed independent correlation to EPScore© (p<0,001; R2 0,290) A total of 34 patients (61,8%) showed low risk, 13 (26,3%) intermediate risk (RS 18-30) and 8 (14,5%) high-risk recurrence score levels (RS≥31) in OncotypeDX©. MammaTyper© results correlated to OncotypeDX© risk-levels (χ2=27,98; p<0,001). In linear regression model mRNA-levels of ESR-1, PGR and MKI67 were significant predictors of OncotypeDX© RS (p-values: p=0,003, p<0,001, p=0,033, R2= 0,602) Conclusion: This study shows mRNA-testing is a valid marker to identify breast cancer subtypes. Additionally, MammaTyper© results are significantly correlated to Oncotype DX©- and EndoPredict©-results, indicating it might be an efficient as well as cost effective diagnostic instrument. However a large prospective multicenter study should be performed to prove its diagnostic validity in predicting the most appropriate and effective treatment in early-stage breast cancer. Citation Format: Eckhoff K, Pokorny J, Baumann K, Perner S, Pursche T, Rody A. MammaTyper© – An in vitro quantitative local gene expression test as a predictor of OncotypeDX©- and EndoPredict©-results [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-08-34.

:Background:It is a known fact that road traffic accidents are responsible for nearly 1.3 million deaths and another 50 million injuries in a year around the globe. Depending on the economic development of the country, victim category may change. In countries like Sri Lanka Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) are more susceptible for road traffic accidents. According to police records pedestrian involved accidents were top the list among other victim categories up to 2015. At present motor cycle riders are recorded as the highest number of victims due to road traffic accidents and pedestrians are at the second place. This paper is about pedestrians involved road traffic accidents reported to Kandy Police station in Sri Lanka to investigate and report a comparison of accidents recorded. Data Collection By law it is mandatory to report all the road traffic accidents to the police station concerned. For this study, road traffic accidents reported to Kandy police station during the period 29.08.2017 to 31.12.2018 were considered. Kandy is the second largest city in Sri Lanka and Kandy has nearly 10% of total traffic related incidents reporting compared to rest of the Country. As explained by Ming Sun et al it is very important pay detailed information about the pedestrian involved accidents to find an acceptable solution to ensure their safety. As a start, summary of accident categories are summarized in the table 1. Table 1: Summary of victim categories reported to Kandy Police Station Severity Gender of the Victim Female Male Grand Total Pedestrian Others Pedestrian Others Fatal 13 2 10 10 35 Grievous 30 19 36 63 148 Grand Total 43 21 46 73 183 According to the table 1, it is evident that pedestrians are highly vulnerable to road traffic accidents in the study area concerned. Further, Table 2 is representation of the same data set in percentages. Table 2 : Percentages of road traffic accidents for Pedestrians and others Pedestrian Others Pedestrian Others Fatal 37.14% 5.71% 28.57% 28.57% 100.00% Grievous 20.27% 12.84% 24.32% 42.57% 100.00% It is important to check whether the accidents are prominent in weekdays or weekends. Table 3 is a summary of accidents summarized according to the day of the week; Table 3 Accident variation according to the day of the week Pedestrian Involved accident Other Accidents Weekdays 70 70 Weekends 19 23 Accident / day (Weekday) 14 14 Accident/ Day (Weekend) 9.5 11.5 According to the dataset considered, there is no difference of accidents per day for weekdays for pedestrian involved and others. But for Weekends, there is a difference of accidents per day on weekends. This may be due to more pedestrians travel during weekdays due to official commitments, schooling etc. Table4. Vehicles involved in Accidents Vehicle Category Victim Category Pedestrian others Motor cycle 31 17 Three wheelers 9 37 Other Vehicles 49 39 Grand Total 89 93 According to the table 4, Motor Cycles and Three wheelers are responsible for most of the Pedestrian involved accidents. Since Motor cycles and three wheelers also categorized as vulnerable road users similar to pedestrians, they should be educated about the importance of sharing facilities with their fellow road users. Table 5 Accident locations Female Male Pedestrian Others Pedestrian Others Fatal Pedestrian crossing 6 0 2 0 others 7 2 8 10 Grievous Pedestrian crossing 9 0 11 1 Others 21 19 25 62 Grand Total 43 21 46 73 as per the information collected and analyzed, pedestrian involved accidents are high at pedestrians crossings compared to other locations. It is a known fact that pedestrian movements, especially across roads are higher at pedestrian crossings, but making such places safer also an important responsibility of the authorities.Conclusions:Pedestrian involved accidents are at a very high percentage. This may be because of low property damage and minor injury relate accidents also considered. Due to various uncertainties and possible underreporting, only fatal accidents and accidents categories as grievous are considered. According to the dataset considered, pedestrians are at high risk on roads compared to other road users. Main culprits in making pedestrian related accidents are other groups of vulnerable road users namely Motorcycle riders and Three-wheeler drivers. Pedestrian related accidents are more prominent during weekends compared to other victim categories.Keywords:Traffic Accidents, Pedestrian accidents, Vulnerable road users

Kerman Province in Iran is known as an earthquake prone area, with different serious damages. In this study, GIS-based ordered weight averaging (OWA) with fuzzy quantifier algorithm is used to model earthquake events in north of Kerman Province, Iran. For this aim, at first using attraction model was tried to increase DEM resolution from 30 to 10 m. Then, using the mentioned DEM, three layers such as aspect, slope, and elevation was prepared. Also, different layers including lithology, land use, river, road, fault, and earthquake occurrences were prepared in ArcGIS software. Subsequently, the importance of each factor in earthquake events was defined using trapezoidal membership function. Finally, the earthquake events map with different risk level (six levels) was prepared using OWA method. The results showed that with decreasing risk (no trade-off), many parts of the study area had not earthquake events hazard. While, with increasing risk (no trade-off), all of the study area had earthquake events hazard. Low level of risk and no trade-off had the highest area in the very low class (98%), while high level of risk and average trade-off had the highest area in the very low class (15.62%). So, for the study where has high earthquake should use low level risk maps in order to better management and damage decreasing.