25 - Late Holocene vegetation, climate dynamics, and human-environment interaction along Konkan coast, India

7 - Holocene climate and sea-level changes and their impact on ecology, vegetation and landforms in South Kerala Sedimentary Basin, India

Late Holocene vegetation and climate changes in the Great Hinggan Mountains, northeast China

Impact of climate changes on vegetation and human societies during the Holocene in the South Caucasus (Vanevan, Armenia): A multiproxy approach including pollen, NPPs and brGDGTs

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Late Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics on the summits of the Guayana Highlands: The Uei-tepui palynological record

South-western Australia has a Mediterranean-type climate and its infertile soils support a highly diverse angiosperm flora. Little is known of the vegetation history of this region, and this means that little can be said of the roles of environmental stability, climate change, or human impact on the maintenance or development of the high biodiversity of the region. This study presents a pollen and fossil charcoal record from two peat profiles from a freshwater lagoon region near Lake Muir, east of Manjimup, in south-western Australia. The record shows a glimpse of an early Holocene where a mix of Casuarina and eucalypts with an understorey of heath and some open herbaceous vegetation, including chenopods, occurred. Fire was not an important factor at this time. The main record begins from about 4800 BP, and shows a vegetation mix of Corymbia calophylla and Eucalyptus marginata, with the latter becoming dominant by about 3500 BP. Corymbia calophylla again becomes prominent in the last few centuries. A heathy understorey is present throughout the last 4800 years, but was apparently less dense during phases when C. calophylla was more prominent. Melaleuca woodland has been the main vegetation type around the wetland areas and areas of inundation since the mid-Holocene. Major fire periods at Byenup, around 4200 BP and between about 3000 and 2000 BP, did not result in major vegetation changes. An analysis of cation content in the sediments suggests that weathering and erosion rates have been relatively stable throughout the record, but an increase in phosphorus and possibly organic matter in the surface layers suggests that agricultural practices have led to changes in the chemistry of sediments. It is hypothesised that an increase in effective precipitation about 4800 BP led to the initiation of the continuous part of the sediment record at Byenup. This increase most likely resulted from a more effective westerly wind stream. Changes since this time are more likely a result of changing fire regime and the interaction of species, rather than climate shifts.

Application of Iversen's glacial-interglacial cycle to interpretation of the late last glacial and holocene vegetation history of western Tasmania

Pollen-stratigraphic data and radiocarbon dates are examined for seven sites in the Italian peninsula (Lago Grande di Monticchio, Valle di Castiglione, Lago di Vico, Lago Lungo, Lagaccione, Lago Padule and Agoraie di Fondo), in order to outline the history of vegetation during the second half of the Holocene. Palaeoclimatic interpretations from the pollen evidence are supported by archaeological, palaeohydrological and lithostratigraphical data from lacustrine deposits. Three main vegetation changes have been identified: a) around 5000 BP diffusion of Fagus in central and northern Italy and of Abies in southern Italy are interpreted as an effect of increased wetness; b) around 3700 BP there is a temporary reduction of tree abundance at all sites in central Italy that, on the basis also of a marked change in the hydrologic regime of lakes, is interpreted as a dry event; c) around 2500 BP there is clear evidence of cultivations, however without any dramatic change in the density and distribution of woodland.

Holocene climate change on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from mountain-slope pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs

Late-Holocene vegetation and climate change in Jeju Island, Korea and its implications for ENSO influences

In this paper, from a cybernetic perspective, the human-nature interactions are considered in the context of modern climate change, unprecedented in its scale and rate caused by anthropogenic activity. The developed structure of the “climate-economy” cybernetic system is presented, the weaknesses of the global governance bodies are analysed, and the main causes of the uncertainties in assessing climate change and the economic damage caused by this change are discussed. It is noted that adaptation measures and strategies developed and implemented by governments of different countries and intergovernmental organizations do not eliminate the causes of global warming and, therefore, have limited capacities, since humans and nature can exist only under specified environmental conditions. Going beyond these conditions, due to climate change, can lead to a global biological catastrophe. Climate policy decisions are made under uncertainty due to the ambiguity of estimates of the future climate, which, in turn, is the result of an insufficiently adequate description of feedbacks in the climate system models. Using low-parametric models of the Earth's climate system, the influence of system’s feedbacks on tangible inter-model differences of climate change estimates obtained using modern climate models of a high degree of complexity is illustrated. Since the climate change adaptation measures proposed by experts are not the struggle with causes, but the fight with consequences, we see geoengineering as a radical adaptation strategy. In contrast to previous studies, we consider the problem of purposefully modifying climatic conditions, implemented by geoengineering methods, within the framework of optimal control theory with mathematical formalization of geoengineering objectives and methods for achieving them. In this paper, an example of the formulation and solution of the optimization problem for stabilizing the Earth’s climate through the injection of finely dispersed sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere is presented.

ISSN 1948-6596 news and update update From acorns mighty micropockets grow Dispersal processes may be critical in determining rates of species range shifts under future climate change. Travis Marsico, Jessica Hellman and Jeanne Romero-Severson, writing in the Journal of Biogeography, shed new light on the future by examining the past shifts in Oregon oak since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (Marsico et al. 2009). They find that it doesn't take a village, it just takes a single tree. This helps support an emerging new view of how plant range shifts are realized when climate shifts rapidly. Until recently, prevailing concepts of bio- logical response to rapid warming in North Amer- ica and Europe were of large, monolithic range shifts in which species totally vacated habitat of waning suitability, moving to new, completely dis- junct range. This view began to change in 1995 when Matt McGlone and Vera Markgraf pre- sented a starkly contrasting model of vegetation shift in the Southern Hemisphere. In New Zealand, McGlone found recolonization of the South Island to be much more rapid than could be accounted for by long-distance dispersal (McGlone 1995). In southern South America, Markgraf documented vegetation change keeping pace with extremely rapid climate 'flickers' (Markgraf and Kenny 1995). Both authors suggested that micropockets of vegetation could explain the very rapid observed changes in dominant vegetation. Such micropock- ets of vegetation were very plausible in these southern settings where no large continental ice sheets existed. Evidence has since grown that micropockets may be important in Northern Hemisphere set- tings as well (recent literature is briefly reviewed by Marsico et al.). Tree remains very close to the boundary of the ice sheet have been found in pa- leorecords of both Europe and North America. Pollen signatures that were previously assumed to be from long-distance blow-in are now being rein- terpreted as possible evidence of vegetation mi- cropockets. If the growing consensus around micro- pockets is correct, the implications for vegetation response to future, human-induced climate change is profound. Patches of vegetation of a few tens of meters on a side might provide source material at rapidly expanding range margins. Long-distance dispersal might establish micro- pockets of vegetation that would serve as step- ping-stones for additional long-distance dispersal. Marsico et al. show that in Oaks in the Pa- cific Northwest, dispersal was primarily from indi- viduals on the leading edge of the range. Chloro- plast DNA markers were remarkably homogenous in their samples. At 16 of 22 sites all individuals sampled shared a single chloroplast haplotype. Having identical chloroplast haplotype indicates a common maternal ancestor, so these populations were established from single colonizations or mul- tiple colonizations by seeds from the same tree (which seems much less likely). The implication is that single trees are criti- cal for establishing populations in newly suitable range. Micropockets of vegetation would have ample sources of seeds for range shifts, if all it takes is a single tree. Marsico et al. found much more diversity in nuclear DNA, indicating that once single colonizations occur, populations grow and are diversified by wide pollen flow from many individuals. Colonists from micropockets and di- versity from broader populations may be a key mechanism in rapid range shifts as rapid human- induced climate change gathers force. Markgraf, V. & Kenny, R. (1995) Character of rapid vegetation and climate change during the late- glacial in southernmost South America. In Hunt- ley, B., Cramer, W., Morgan, A.V., Prentice, H.C. and Allen, J.R.M. (eds.) Past and Future Rapid Environmental Changes: The Spatial and Evolu- tionary Responses of Terrestrial Biota, pp. 81- 102. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. Marsico, T.D., Hellmann, J.J. & Romero-Severson, J. (2009) Patterns of seed dispersal and pollen flow in Quercus garryana (Fagaceae) following post-glacial climatic changes. Journal of Bio- geography, 36, 929-941. McGlone, M.S. (1995) The responses of New Zealand forest diversity to Quaternary climates. In Hunt- ley, B., Cramer, W., Morgan, A.V., Prentice, H.C. frontiers of biogeography 1.1, 2009 — © 2009 the authors; journal compilation © 2009 The International Biogeography Society

This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO-monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation (SD) was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI: 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, “the strong get stronger”. Another finding was that ENSO-monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO-summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.

Mangroves are amongst the richest ecosystems in the world providing valuable goods and services to millions of people while enhancing the resilience of coastal communities against climate change induced hazards, especially island nations. However, these mangroves are severely affected by many anthropogenic activities. Therefore, understanding the spatial variability of mangroves in island nations is highly essential in the events of ongoing climatic change. Thus, this study assessed the use of remote sensing techniques and GIS to map and monitor mangrove cover change at selected sites, namely Le Morne and Ferney, on the tropical island of Mauritius. Freely available 2013 SPOT-5 and 2023 Sentinel 2A images were retrieved and processed using ArcGIS Pro tools and SNAP; mangroves were mapped based on Google Earth Pro historical imagery and ground truthing at the respective sites. Following the application of selected vegetation indices, GLCM and PCA analysis, mosaicked images were classified using the Random Trees algorithm. Kappa values of all the classified images were in the 90 s; Le Morne showed a significant increase in mangrove cover over the decadal scale with main class change from mudflat to mangroves. This study demonstrates how geo-spatial tools are crucial for monitoring mangroves as they provide spatially explicit and time sensitive information. Decision makers, researchers, and relevant stakeholders can utilize this data to bolster tailored mitigation and adaptation strategies at specific sites, thereby enhancing resilience to climate change.

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10 % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5million people and GDP worth roughly US $400million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233 %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.