A Daily Work Report Based Approach for Schedule Risk Analysis

This study examines the comparison of PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method) in time management for construction projects through a case study of a 21-story high-rise building project in Yogyakarta. The research is motivated by the need for effective time management in construction projects to avoid delays that may escalate costs and disrupt project execution. The objectives are to determine the estimated duration for completing the building’s structural work, compare the differences between the initial schedule and the results of PERT and CPM analyses. The study employs a case study approach, with primary data collected through direct interviews with project stakeholders regarding activity durations and predecessors, as well as secondary data from project documentation, including schedules and structural drawings. Data analysis involves applying PERT calculations using three-time estimates (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) and identifying critical paths through CPM. Data processing and network diagram visualization are conducted using a project management software to comprehensively map critical and non-critical project activities. Results indicate that the CPM method predicts a project duration of 419 days, 237 days shorter than the initial schedule, while the PERT method estimates 580 days, 76 days shorter than the original timeline, with an 82.98% probability of timely completion.

Residential construction projects can have many risks and uncertainties that can affect their completion time. To ensure a residential construction project is completed on time, accurate duration estimates are required for each activity. The deterministic duration Critical Path Method (CPM) is extensively used in construction project scheduling. However, this method may not always yield a realistic schedule as it uses only one duration estimation for each activity. As an alternative, this study uses the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) which utilizes three duration estimates, and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) which simulates the duration 5000 times. A house construction project with 24 activities was analyzed using CPM which yielded 63 days completion time. The project was then analyzed using PERT and MCS. PERT and MCS calculations found that to complete the project with a 95% level of confidence the project needed 70 and 79 days, respectively. The findings of this study indicate that PERT and MCS can assist project managers in creating a more realistic project schedule by considering the risks and uncertainties inherent in a construction project.

Although Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) has been applied widely in the planning and control of the project progress, there are some deficiencies, for example, the accuracy of the estimated activity duration is not high, the distribution pattern of the duration variable is single, the calculation result of the project completion probability is slightly larger and so on. Based on present research results, this article proposes using Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate varieties of distribution situations of the activity duration with Crystal Ball and Excel tools, and calculate the completion time and the probability distribution of the project according to the Critical Path Method(CPM). In the last, this article verifies the effectiveness and the convenience of this method by an example. Because of abandoning assumptions of the PERT, therefore the random simulation model has more stronger adaptability and credibility than the traditional PERT. Taking advantage of Crystal Ball and Excel tools, the project progress managers can easily realize the random simulation and calculation of the large-scale complex projects, then guarantee the successful completion of the project and reduce the risk of duration delay.

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the environmental commitment tracking systems (ETSs) used by other state departments of transportation (DOTs) in an effort to determine which system would be the most beneficial for long-term implementation at the Colorado DOT. The authors developed a quantitative decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the features that the Colorado DOT prefers and evaluate ETSs used by other state DOTs with respect to those features to provide recommendations as to which ETS the Colorado DOT should adopt. ETSs from California, Florida, Kentucky, New York, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Washington were evaluated. The quantitative decision-making framework consists of four steps: (a) conduct interviews to identify the features that the Colorado DOT prefers to have in its ETS, (b) assign weights to those features to establish their importance relative to each other on the basis of Colorado DOT preferences by using the analytic hierarchy process, (c) collect data from the above-mentioned eight state DOTs through surveys to identify which features their ETSs have, and (d) perform a quantitative evaluation of those ETSs with their respective weights according to Colorado DOT preferences. Application of this framework identified the ETSs that are most closely correlated with Colorado DOT preferences and resulted in a number of recommendations to the Colorado DOT. Although the findings presented are specific to the Colorado DOT, the quantitative decision-making framework can be used by any DOT to evaluate an ETS.

At present, EPC project is one of hiring contracts for engineering design and construction of petrochemical plant. EPC project management is management under the lump-sum contract or stipulated sum contract of which the owner has essentially assigned all the risks to the contractor, who in turn can be expected to ask for a higher markup to take care of unforeseen contingencies. Generally, complexities of project activity are the main factor in project management. Therefore, effective project scheduling is the important method to reduce cost and time. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is basically a project scheduling management and control tool are widely used for planning and coordinating each activity in large-scale project. The Critical Path Method (CPM) is used extensively to find the longest path in the network diagram or the shortest duration in which the project can be completed. The researcher has aimed to apply PERT and CPM with simulation software add-in Crystal Ball in MS Excel to develop the optimal method for increasing certainty of project finished and reducing time of complexities project duration. To minimize project duration, overall monthly project management cost will be decreased. The finding of this paper showed that using PERT and CPM applied with simulation software add-in Crystal Ball in MS Excel in scheduling project could minimize project duration from 356 days to 312 days and maximize certainty of project finished from 24.49% to approach 100%.

The project scheduling establish the time sequence of various activities which has a certain time limit, this means that the project must be completed before or exactly at the specified time. The delay effect and result in delays to the completion of the overall project. The purpose of study is to analyze the scheduling of the project to find out how long a project can be completed, determine the critical path as well as optimize the time of execution of the project. Research methods used for the project implementation analysis of Clubhouse building construction using critical path method (CPM) and program evaluation and review technique (PERT). Results of the discussion and calculations obtained that the completion of the project still in accordance with the schedule that has been determained, with the critical path method (CPM) is 321 days, and the program evaluation and review technique (PERT), time most quickly resolved is 312 days (value of Z= 0,22%), the slowest time is 339 days (value of Z= 99,87%) and the most probable time is 325 days (value of Z= 49,20%). Be aware of the activities which constitute the critical path is the activities: A, B1, B2, B3, B4, C1, C2, C3, C4, C6, C5, C7, C8, D, and obtained the optimization of project completion time with the CPM method is 48 days, PERT method, time most quickly is 57 days,the slowest time is 30 days, and the most possible time is 44 days.

Schedule risk analysis for new-product development: The GERT method extended by a characteristic function

This report examines the experience of state and provincial departments of transportation (DOTs) with strategic planning and synthesizes current approaches to linking strategic planning with other decision-making processes, including operational and tactical planning, resource allocation, performance management, and performance measurement. It will be of interest primarily to chief executive officers, executive team members, and other officials who are responsible for developing, supporting, and using strategic management systems in state and provincial DOTs. The report is intended to help these industry leaders strengthen the overall performance of their organizations by examining exemplary practices in various DOTs. Case studies are also provided documenting one transportation agency that has used strategic planning over an extended period and one that recently implemented strategic planning. This synthesis report contains information drawn from survey responses from U.S. state and Canadian provincial transportation agencies. Follow-up telephone interviews were conducted with relevant personnel from many of those agencies that responded to the survey and some that did not to clarify responses and probe additional issues. A review of the relevant literature was also undertaken to provide background on the topic, help define the overall approach, and discuss the limitations of strategic planning.

P02 Promotion of Active Transportation among State Departments of Transportation in the US

As state departments of transportation (DOTs) and local transportation agencies make difficult funding decisions in these financially constrained times, access management improvements provide a cost-effective alternative for improving the safety and operation of roadways. Mindful of the benefits of implementing access management treatments, the Michigan DOT has conducted an access management program since 2002. The Michigan DOT contracted with the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) to provide recommendations for adjustments to the Michigan access management program. As a result of the evaluation, TTI identified lessons learned related to the importance of (a) continuing support and funding for the access management program, (b) a clear access management policy statement, (c) coordination and cooperation between state and local transportation agencies, (d) continued training, (e) interagency coordination across state DOT divisions, (f) continued review and update of technical documentation and guidance, and (g) continued objective program evaluations. The lessons learned that are documented and described in this paper are invaluable reminders to practitioners in state DOTs with established programs and excellent points to consider for practitioners in state DOTs just beginning to foster access management implementation. Practitioners from local transportation agencies (e.g., cities, villages, counties, and townships) that are implementing access management or planning to implement access management will also find these lessons learned invaluable. The research community will also benefit from the lessons learned identified in this paper because the findings validate the procedural, political, and institutional considerations often touted as imperative to successful implementation of access management.

Critical path method provides complete time analysis of project activities and identifies the critical ones based on deterministic time and cost estimates. In real-life, duration estimate of project activities contains some sort of uncertainty. Program evaluation and review technique (PERT) has been used early for dealing with uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to overcome some pitfalls of PERT; however, MCS is time-consuming and requires large amount of data. Accordingly, fuzzy-set theory is used to quantify uncertainty associated with activities’ durations. Several fuzzy-based techniques have been proposed; however, some difficulties are encountered in determining late times of activities and degree of criticality. The aim of this article is to present an analytical method for measuring criticality in a project network with fuzzy activity durations. A proposed method for measuring criticality degree (CD) of both project paths and activities is presented, avoiding pitfalls of previous fuzzy methods. Linear fuzzy activities’ duration – that is commonly used in construction – is assumed. An example application is worked-out to illustrate the steps of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is precise and effective for determining CD of both project paths and activities.

Chapter 3 - Prefeasibility Assessment of a Tidal Energy System

Purpose To maintain road systems in the USA, state departments of transportation (DOTs) generally use in-house workers or private contractors. Limited studies have calculated the cost savings of hiring private contractors; however, most of them have not calculated cost savings based on life-cycle costs (LCCs). The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the LCC of chip seal and stripping maintenance activities performed by in-house workers are cheaper than those performed by private contractors. Design/methodology/approach The paper collected the hard cost data of chip seal and stripping maintenance activities performed by state DOT in-house workers, as well as private contractors, from 2003 to 2016 from the Nevada DOT Maintenance and Asset Management division. Statistical tests were conducted to test the research hypothesis that the LCC of chip seal and stripping activities performed by in-house workers are significantly less than those performed by private contractors. Findings The study results showed that the cost per unit and LCC of chip seal and striping work performed by in-house workers were significantly less than those performed by private contractors in Nevada. Research limitations/implications The study only collected data from Nevada DOT, so readers should use caution in generalizing the findings of this study. Additionally, factors affecting the cost of these maintenance activities for private contractors are significantly different compared to in-house contractors. Therefore, these differences may be some of the potential reasons for cost difference between these two methods. Practical implications The practical implications of this study are that state DOT engineers need to plan for outsourcing chip seal and stripping maintenance activities only to private contractors that are cost effective, based on life-cycle cost. Originality/value The LCC analysis framework developed in this study will help state DOT engineers to determine cost savings by using in-house workers for road maintenance works.

A construction schedule review is an essential aspect of schedule management for U.S. state departments of transportation (DOTs) to deliver transportation construction projects on time. Despite their importance, current literature pays limited attention to addressing schedule quality problems for highway construction projects. This research aims to assess schedule quality problems from DOTs’ perspective and suggests recommendations to improve DOTs’ schedule review practices. To achieve this, two questions were formulated: 1) What schedule problems do DOT schedule reviewers perceive as vital to schedule quality? and 2) What schedule problems do DOT schedule reviewers find repeatedly? This research first reviewed relevant literature and identified 44 schedule quality problems noted about highway construction. Based on these 44 problems, a survey was developed to assess the level of impact and the likelihood of occurrence of each problem. The survey was deployed to Texas Department of Transportation practitioners with schedule review experience. The analysis prioritized the problems by the relative impact and frequency, and DOTs can utilize this analysis to improve their schedule review process and practices. This paper contributes to the academic body of knowledge by investigating the schedule quality problems in highway construction and DOT practitioners’ perceptions of the schedule quality problems. Its industry contribution includes providing the methodology for DOTs to assess their schedule quality problems.

There are various degrees of authority given to accommodate utilities on public rights of way (ROW). In the USA, most state laws permit public-serving utilities to use road ROW so long as they are not obstructing or hindering travel, endangering public safety, or obstructing other utilities from using the ROW legally. State laws and regulations specify different fee structures. In some states, the Department of Transportation (DOT) is authorized to assess fees or enter into lease agreements for utility accommodations on ROW. State DOTs may also receive compensation in some cases through in-kind resource sharing, barter arrangements, or other means. Different strategies may result in different fee schedules, which may or may not generate revenue for the state DOT. State DOTs are currently implementing various practices and compensation structures for utilities installed on public ROWs. This research aims to develop a categorization mechanism framework to determine how state DOTs compensate and evaluate utilities installed on ROWs. The framework is presented to assist DOTs in valuing and compensating for utilities and provides state DOTs with the means and approaches needed to execute a fee or leasing schedule for utility installations in public ROW. Several methods were used to accomplish this objective, including literature reviews, synthesis of legislation and policies, and interviews with subject matter experts. As a result, this investigation found significant variation between states in how they approach compensation and value utility accommodations. Based on this paper’s findings, valuation and compensation standardization are urgently needed.