A data-driven multiphysical masking model for morphology prediction and process optimization in longitudinal–torsional ultrasonic-assisted milling of CFRP

Data-driven predictive modeling is increasingly being used in risk assessments. While such modeling may provide improved consequence predictions and probability estimates, it also comes with challenges. One is that the modeling and its output does not measure and represent uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, that is, "epistemic uncertainty." In this article, we demonstrate this point by conceptually linking the main elements and output of data-driven predictive models with the main elements of a general risk description, thereby placing data-driven predictive modeling on a risk science foundation. This allows for an evaluation of such modeling with reference to risk science recommendations for what constitutes a complete risk description. The evaluation leads us to conclude that, as a minimum, to cover all elements of a complete risk description a risk assessment using data-driven predictive modeling needs to be supported by assessments of the uncertainty and risk related to the assumptions underlying the modeling. In response to this need, we discuss an approach for assessing assumptions in data-driven predictive modeling.

The data-driven interwell simulation model (INSIM) has been recognized as an effective tool for history matching and interwell-connectivity characterization of waterflooding reservoirs. INSIM-FT-3D (FT: front tracking) was recently developed to upgrade the applicationdimension of INSIM series data-driven models from two-dimensional (2D) to three-dimensional (3D). However, INSIM-FT-3D cannot accurately infer the dynamic change of well-connectivity and predict well's bottom-hole pressure (BHP). The main purpose of this study intends to expand the capability of INSIM-FT-3D to empower for the assimilation of BHPs, the reliable prediction of water breakthrough and the characterization of dynamic interwell-connectivities. The default setting of well index (WI) in INSIM-FT-3D based on Peaceman's equation does not yield accurate BHP estimates. We derive a WI that can honor the BHPs of a reference model composed of a set of 1D connections. When history matching BHPs of a 3D reservoir, we show that the derived WI is a better initial guess than that obtained from Peaceman's equation. We also develop a flow-path-tracking (FPT) algorithm to calculate the dynamic interwell properties (allocation factors and pore volumes (PVs)). Besides, we discuss the relationship between the INSIM-family methods and the traditional grid-based methods, which indicates that the INSIM-family methods can calculate the transmissibility of the connection between coarse-scale cells in a more accurate manner. As an improvement of INSIM-FT-3D, the newly proposed data-driven model is denoted as INSIM-FPT-3D. To verify the correctness of the derived WI, we present a 1D problem and a T-shaped synthetic reservoir simulation model as the reference models. BHPs and oil production rates are obtained as the observed data by running these two reference models with total injection/production-rate controls. An INSIM-FPT-3D model is created by specifying the transmissibilities and PVs that are the same as those in the reference model. By applying the derived WIs in INSIM-FPT-3D, the resulting BHPs and oil rates obtained agree well with the reference model without further model calibration. Applying INSIM-FPT-3D to a synthetic multi-layered reservoir shows that we obtain a reasonable match of both BHPs and oil rates with INSIM-FPT-3D. Compared with the FrontSim model, the INSIM-FPT-3D model after history matching is shown to match the dynamic PVs from FrontSim reasonably well and can correctly predict the timing of water breakthrough. By allowing for the assimilation of BHP data, we enable INSIM-FPT-3D to history match a green field with limited production history and forecast the timing of water breakthrough. The improved INSIM-FPT-3D leads to more accurate characterization of the interwell connectivities.

With the rapid development of socioeconomics and the continuous advancement of urbanization, water environment issues in plain river networks have become increasingly prominent. Accurate and reliable water quality (WQ) predictions are a prerequisite for water pollution warning and management. Data-driven modeling offers a promising approach for WQ prediction in plain river networks. However, existing data-driven models suffer from inadequate capture of spatiotemporal (ST) dependencies and misalignment between direct prediction strategy assumptions with actual data characteristics, limiting prediction accuracy. To address these limitations, this study proposes a spatiotemporal graph neural network (ST-GNN) that integrates four core modules. Experiments were performed within the Chengdu Plain river network, with performance comparisons against five baseline models. Results suggest that ST-GNN achieves rapid and accurate WQ prediction for both short-term and long-term, reducing prediction errors (MAE, RMSE, MAPE) by up to 46.62%, 37.68%, and 45.67%, respectively. Findings from the ablation experiments and autocorrelation analysis further confirm the positive contribution of the core modules in capturing ST dependencies and eliminating data autocorrelation. This study establishes a novel data-driven model for WQ prediction in plain river networks, supporting early warning and pollution control while providing insights for water environment research.

SummaryRecently, we have developed two computationally efficient data-driven models—interwell numerical simulation model (INSIM) and INSIM with front tracking (INSIM-FT)—for history matching, prediction, characterization, and optimization of waterflooding reservoirs. Then, stemming from the INSIM family, we derived a new data-driven model referred to as INSIM with flow-path tracking (FPT), for more-accurate interwell connectivity calculations, dynamic flow-path tracking, and waterflooding predictions. The model is a connection-based simulation model that is developed on the basis of a two-phase-flow material-balance equation. With the new model, we can characterize a reservoir by history matching the historical well flow-rate data without the detailed petrophysical properties of the reservoir. In INSIM-FPT, we provide an automatic and systematic workflow that incorporates Delaunay triangulation and imaginary wells to construct the model connection map. We apply a modified depth-first searching method to track all influential flow paths between an injector/producer pair for more-accurate calculations of dynamic allocation factors and control pore volumes (PVs). In addition, we provide a method to visualize a saturation field for a history-matched INSIM-FPT model. On the basis of the saturation map, we design a workflow to evaluate possible drilling locations and future performance of infill wells.For application, we create a synthetic reservoir with two different scenarios to demonstrate the reliability of INSIM-FPT. The results show that the dynamic allocation factors and control PVs between injector/producer pairs in the history-matched INSIM-FPT models are consistent with those obtained from the true streamline simulation model. Furthermore, the oil-saturation field generated with INSIM-FPT reasonably matches that obtained with the true model. It shows that the future predictions of infill wells on the basis of history-matched INSIM-FPT models are reasonably accurate but can be improved if more observed data are collected from near the planned infill wells. We also test a large-scale field problem with 65 wells, which shows INSIM-FPT can reasonably match and predict the field data.

Accurate prediction of steel material parameters during heat treatment is essential for reliable finite element analysis (FEA) and process optimisation. Conventional experimental measurements and empirical models are often costly, time-consuming, and difficult to generalise to complex chemistries, microstructures, and temperature ranges. In this work, a data-driven prediction model is established using a comprehensive dataset that integrates simulation and experimental data, covering 18 elemental compositions, three typical microstructures, and a wide temperature range. Six key parameters are predicted simultaneously: thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, yield stress, coefficient of thermal expansion, Young’s modulus, and density. Five machine learning models are evaluated, among which XGBoost shows the best performance for thermal parameters, while Gradient Boosting provides the highest accuracy for mechanical properties. After hyperparameter optimisation with grid search and cross-validation, all models achieve R² values above 0.99 and relative prediction errors within 5 %. An integrated Steel Materials Data Management System (S-MDMS) is further developed to combine data storage, visualisation, and online property prediction. The proposed model provides an efficient route for rapid acquisition and application of steel parameters in FEA-based heat treatment design and process optimisation.

Data-driven collapse strength modelling for the screen pipes with internal corrosion defect based on finite element analysis and tree-based machine learning

Data-driven modeling of geometry-adaptive steady heat conduction based on convolutional neural networks

Multi-objective optimization of hydrocyclone by combining mechanistic and data-driven models

Modeling the behavior of groundwater levels is necessary to implement sustainable groundwater resource management. Groundwater is a non-linear and complex system, which can be modeled by data-driven models. This study evaluates the performances of data-driven models, support vector machine regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN), for forecasting groundwater levels of confined and unconfined systems at 1-, 2-, and 3-month ahead. This is the first time that confined and unconfined aquifers have been compared using data-driven models. In addition, to identify the optimal input combination, a hybrid gamma test (GT) and genetic algorithm (GA) was used. The coefficient of correlation (R), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and developed discrepancy ratio (DDR) were applied to evaluate the SVR and ANN models. Results showed that the SVR and ANN models were more accurate for the unconfined system than the confined system for forecasts up to 3-month ahead. In both hydrogeological systems for 1-month ahead, the models performed better than for 2- and 3-month ahead forecasts, and the accuracy of the models decreased as the months ahead increased. The SVR model performed better than the ANN model for 1-, 2-, and 3-month ahead groundwater-level forecasting. The SVR model could be successfully used in predicting monthly groundwater in confined and unconfined systems.

RUL (remaining useful life) estimation is one of the main functions of the predictive analytics systems for rotary machines. Data-driven models based on large amounts of multisensory measurements data are usually utilized for this purpose. The use of adjustable bearings, on the one hand, improves a machine’s performance. On the other hand, it requires considering the additional variability in the bearing parameters in order to obtain adequate RUL estimates. The present study proposes a hybrid approach to such prediction models involving the joint use of physics-based models of adjustable bearings and data-driven models for fast on-line prediction of their parameters. The approach provides a rather simple way of considering the variability of the properties caused by the control systems. It has been tested on highly loaded locomotive traction motor axle bearings for consideration and prediction of their wear and RUL. The proposed adjustable design of the bearings includes temperature control, resulting in an increase in their expected service life. The initial study of the system was implemented with a physics-based model using Archard’s law and Reynolds equation and considering load and thermal factors for wear rate calculation. The dataset generated by this model is used to train an ANN for high-speed on-line bearing RUL and wear prediction. The results show good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the statistics of operation of traction motor axle bearings. A number of recommendations for further improving the quality of predicting the parameters of active bearings are also made as a summary of the work.

Application of GIS-based data-driven bivariate statistical models for landslide prediction: a case study of highly affected landslide prone areas of Teesta River basin

Slag entrainment in the continuous casting mold has always been the focus of surface quality control of the slab for the steel strips. However, the invisible and nonlinear molten steel flow that determines the defect formation make online measurement and evaluation particularly difficult. We developed a fast prediction method visualising the characteristics of the melt flow and estimating the slag entrainment online by combining numerical simulation and machine learning. The data-driven surrogate model was constructed using the proper orthogonal decomposition method and a fully connected neural network based on the numerical simulation data. The model showed a high hit rate of over 91 % with an absolute error of less than 0.05, and exhibited millisecond-scale real-time responsiveness. With the ultra-high computational efficiency, a high-resolution parameter-defect index map was established to clarify the effect of the operating parameters at multiple dimensions, and to locate the low-risk range, the argon flow rate within 3–8 L/min, the casting speed within 1.0–1.7 m/min, and the nozzle immersion depth within 180–220 mm. This approach provides a promising technical route for the design of an efficient online slag entrainment monitoring system.

A data-driven model for production prediction of strongly heterogeneous reservoir under uncertainty

Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting

Design optimization for filament wound cylindrical composite internal pressure vessels considering process-induced residual stresses