A Factor-Based Bayesian Framework for Risk Analysis in Stochastic Simulations

Mean-square practical stability for stochastic large-scale dynamical systems is studied. The vector Lyapunov functions and the basic comparison principle of stochastic systems as well as the decomposition-aggregation method for large-scale systems were used to obtain results for various types of mean-square practical stability of nonlinear stochastic large-scale dynamical systems. The objective is to analyze stochastic large-scale systems in terms of their lower-order subsystems and in terms of their interconnecting structure. These results make it possible to determine the mean-square practical stability of stochastic large-scale dynamical systems by testing the corresponding practical stability of the auxiliary deterministic systems. >

This article outlines the methodology of the IT system risk analysis and management, including various categories of risk factors significant from the point of view of the sensitive data processing and completeness of the procedure for determining the IT system risk level. The presented methodology is divided into the IT system risk analysis and the risk management method. The IT system risk level assessed by the risk analysis method described in this article constitutes an input value for the risk management method outlined in the further part hereof, referring to the IT systems used for the processing of documents at different levels of sensitivity.

Enhancing systemic risk management to strengthen community resilience: Key recommendations from state-of-the-art practices of past complex incidents

This article presents a comprehensive investigation into the causes of road transport accidents in Ukraine, focusing on the application of risk analysis to minimize economic and human losses. The study begins with a detailed examination of the current road safety scenario in Ukraine, highlighting the alarming statistics of road accidents and their consequences. The central aim is to develop effective strategies for controlling and managing the causes of road accidents. The research identifies the primary factors contributing to road accidents, such as exceeding safe speed limits, driving under the influence of alcohol, etc. A risk management system is proposed, encompassing the creation of a structured risk management framework, development of methodologies, and implementation of information and analytical systems. Th e article emphasizes the importance of continuous risk monitoring and assessment, including risk identification, analysis, and management. Statistical observations and analysis play a crucial role in diagnosing risks, which are then used to devise risk minimization measures and improve road safety. The study concludes with recommendations for risk-based decision-making and the implementation of targeted interventions to reduce road accidents and associated risks in Ukraine. First published online 11 February 2025

Since the global financial crisis, banking regulators and academics have extended the traditional, narrow definition of to encompass concepts such as interconnectedness and shadow banking. But, at the time of writing, a definition of systemic risk that covers all of the factors that precipitated the global financial crisis is still emerging. This paper first describes the debate around the emerging definition(s) of systemic risk and discusses some of the initiatives to address systemic risk by international regulators. These initiatives include microprudential regulations, such as increasing capital for systemically important banks, and macroprudential initiatives, such as the creation of the European Systemic Risk Board. Recognizing that systemic risks arise not only from credit and market risk factors, this paper views systemic risk through the lens of operational risk, arguing that key risk factors, especially people and process risks, were pervasive across the global financial industry prior to the global financial crisis and, consequently, operational risk must be considered as a contributor to, and in some instances a trigger for, systemic risk. The paper goes on to describe the microprudential approach to operational risk within the Basel II regulations and identifies and describes operational risks that were present prior to the global financial crisis. The paper concludes that there is indeed a systemic dimension to operational risk that should be recognized and addressed by banking regulators.Finally, the paper makes some suggestions as to how the management of systemic operational risks may be addressed by banks and regulators.

This is the second part of a two part article. In Part I, a social systems theory was applied to the analysis of hazardous technology and socio-technical systems, their complex dynamics, and risky dimensions and likelihood of accidents. It identified many of the diverse human risk factors associated with complex technologies and socio-technical systems, thus contributing knowledge toward preventing — or minimizing the likelihood of — accidents or catastrophes. This second part of the article will systematically address the broader issues of risk conceptions, analysis, and management in contemporary society including policy and other practical aspects. The social systems perspective and its derivations are contrasted to such impressionistic conceptions as those of Ulrich Beck. Section 1 of the paper introduces the topic of risk as a discursive concept in contemporary society. Our point of departure is the social system approach introduced in Part I, which is contrasted to that of Ulrich Beck, who eschews systematic theorizing at the same time that he denigrates empirical sociology. The section stresses that contemporary society is not so much threatened by high risks all around (as in Ulrich Beck’s “risk society”) but is more characterized by its developed risk discourses (a great deal owing to Beck himself), risk consciousness, risk theorizing, and risk management. What is truly characteristic of modern society are discretionary powers to determine dimensions, levels, and regulation of risk, that is, choices can be made whether or not to develop a technology, whether or not to not to tightly regulate it, for instance limiting or banning its use or whether or not to allow its widespread application, and under what conditions. Section 2 provides a brief review of our social systems framework, actor-system-dialectics (ASD) theory. Section 3 treats risk and risk analysis in a systems perspective, emphasizing the limitations of risk assessment and the risk management of complex, hazardous systems. Section 4 considers several principles which may serve to guide policy-making and regulation with respect to the hazards and risks of complex technologies and socio-technical systems.

Systemic risk management in India: An analytics perspective

In today's changing, economic, market conditions, under the influence of external and internal factors, the analysis of existing and potential risks is a very important element in the activities of economic entities. This problem is relevant in any sector of the economy. Each of the subjects of market relations at all levels feels the impact of unforeseen circumstances and risk situations, an adequate response to which allows to save resources, and market position. In addition, risk management involves risk analysis and active search for various tools to influence them. Thus, it can be noted that no risk management system can exist without a structured risk model that currently poses a threat. Analysis of potential and known risks is a very important area in planning the activities of the enterprise. Assessing risks, taking into account their likely effects on the state of the enterprise, and applying methods to minimize them is very important to ensure the effective operation of economic entities. In addition, it is important to add that risks are present in any field of activity. That is why the topic of risks is relevant for both economists and business leaders and managers. In modern economic conditions, the importance of the risk category for domestic enterprises is growing. The state of uncertainty makes it almost impossible to avoid risk. However, this does not mean that you should look for solutions in which the result is known in advance - they are usually ineffective. It is important for the company to have the ability to anticipate risk, critically assess its size, immediately plan preventive measures and do not exceed acceptable limits. Risk identification is a very important step in the risk management process. The relevance of effective consideration of possible risks in the course of the enterprise is beyond doubt, given that risk becomes an integral part of the strategy and tactics of economic policy of most enterprises. The problem of risk management is extremely broad and important, because it arises in a variety of areas of human activity. Moreover, the content of risk is determined depending on the scope in different ways. In the course of the enterprise there are a variety of risk situations. Analysis of the theoretical foundations of risk management allows you to identify and select those methods and stages of the risk management process that would allow the most effective work with them. Risk management in business is based on risk analysis and finding tools to help influence them. The risk management system is impossible without a structural model, the factors of which, in turn, will depend on the specifics of business. Risks are inherent in any activity and any business entity.

Task. Issues devoted to the delimitation of methods and procedures of related scientific areas: risk management, economic security, management and risk management are studied and researched by many authors. This gives rise to thoughts about a single basic basis for the listed scientific movements. So, the author, in order to avoid constant repetition of listing the scientific directions under consideration in the article, calls them directions, economic categories, etc., but the problem raised by the author of the article is the differentiation of the main elements, in particular methods, procedures, goals, objectives, principles between the studied categories, namely risk management, economic security, management and risk management. The purpose of the article is to systematize the listed elements and consider their duplication in the scientific areas under consideration. Model. The author systematizes, on the basis of those reviewed by modern economists and analysts, as well as classic scientific works, the basic elements of risk management, economic security, management and risk management. An attempt was made to find an answer to the question «are there specific developed methods and techniques for risk management of an organization that would distinguish it from the risk management system and other scientific areas?» Conclusions. Economic categories: risk management, economic security, management and risk management are considered as a single process in economic research, and therefore economists do not have a clear opinion and understanding of the differences between these categories. Practical significance. A comparative analysis of the essence of the main elements of risk management, economic security, management and risk management allows us to determine the most appropriate methods and procedures for the practical application of risk management in organizations. Allows you to develop an understanding of the implementation of risk management principles in organizations to achieve their goals. Originality. The list of goals, objectives, procedures and principles of risk management, economic security, management and risk management has been clarified, expanded and systematized.

The science and practice offer risk management methodologies that are relevant to modern production, economic and socio-humanitarian realities. Risk management methodologies are successfully developed and implemented in Russia through the creation of scientific and professional communities. Their goal is to solve specific management tasks of identifying, analyzing, controlling, and predicting risks. Russian organizations operating internationally are the first to update foreign risk management methodologies for their managers, and now they are implementing a systematic corporate risk management approach. The world practice also offers standardization in risk management. Such a system successfully operates in the territory of the EU, which is represented by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). The standards of this organization regulate not only the sphere of risk management, but also the quality management, auditing, production regulation, environmental management, and others. Most of the standards are adapted in the Russian context and are presented in the form of national standards GOST R. The paper considers risk analysis, one of the leading risk management methodologies both in Russia and abroad. We will draw analogies and differences with other modern approaches and risk management methodologies.

The Information System Security is characterized by an organized frame of significances, perceptions, concepts, policies, procedures, techniques and measures that are required in order to protect individual resources – assets of the Information System, but also the entire system, from each intentional or accidental threat. The effective security management of an Information System initially requires the elaboration of a complete study, which is based on the methodology of Information System Risk Analysis and Management and which follows three main stages, according to the International Organization for Standardization: (a) Identification and valuation of assets, (b) Risk Analysis, which includes the threat assessment and the vulnerability assessment of the Information System and (c) Risk Management, which includes the selection of countermeasures, the determination of the security policy as well as the preparation, implementation and observation of the security plan. The purpose of this paper is to propose the effective guidelines that have to apply to all organisations (“participants”) in the new information society and suggest the need for a greater awareness and understanding of security issues and the need to develop a “security policy”. Index Terms Information Security, Information Security Management, Risk Assessment, Risk Management, Information Security

This three-part series work investigates the qualitative analysis of large-scale stochastic hereditary systems under random structural perturbations. The random structural perturbations are described by a Markov chain with a finite number of states. The first part of this three-part series work deals with the problem formulation and the development of mathematical tool to undertake this investigation. In this first part, we present variational comparison theorems for isolated subsystems of large-scale stochastic hereditary systems under Markovian structural perturbations. This part lays down the basis for the study of hierarchic systems.

As a boarding school-based educational environment with intense activities, Islamic boarding schools have high potential risks in terms of safety, health, and the environment, thus requiring systematic and integrated risk management. This Community Service activity aims to empower students and managers of Al Mizan Islamic Boarding School in Lamongan through the application of participatory and digital technology-based Digital Risk Mapping. The method used is a participatory approach through focus group discussions, counseling and training on hazard identification and risk analysis, as well as assistance in compiling a digital risk map. The results of the activity show an increase in the knowledge and awareness of students and boarding school administrators regarding K3 and environmental risk management. Additionally, an OSH risk map for the boarding school environment was developed, which includes high-risk areas, types of hazards, and risk levels, and is ready to be used as a basis for risk control and emergency preparedness. It was concluded that this program contributes to building a risk-aware culture and strengthening the internal capacity of the boarding school towards more systematic and sustainable risk management.

Traversing the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, the Sichuan–Tibet Railway is by far the most difficult railway project in the world. The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau features the most active crustal dynamics on earth, the strongest coupling effects of endogenic and exogenic dynamics, and the environment most sensitive to global climate change. The project area is characterized by extremely cold climate, high elevation and relief, high seismic intensity, high geothermal activity, and high tectonic stress. Consequently, the threat of various disaster risks is ever-present at different stages of the entire life cycle of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway. There is urgent need to systematically study these problems at various levels from the fundamental science to the development of key technologies. This article investigates the different disaster risks recognized during the various stages of construction of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway project, and summarizes the scientific challenges and technical problems faced in relation to disaster risk prevention and control. This work also introduces the scientific deployment and relevant research progress of the Sichuan–Tibet Fund special project initiated by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Here, we also aim to solve the major fundamental scientific challenges in terms of long-term risk prevention and control during the construction of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, and lay a theoretical foundation to promote breakthroughs in the bottleneck of key technologies. The scientific challenges addressed in the study of disaster risk associated with the Sichuan–Tibet Railway include the following: The quantitative assessment of the activity of deep-large faults and strong earthquake prediction, the evolution of physical fields in areas of strong tectonic activity, the development mechanisms of tunnel hazards, the slope evolution processes under coupled endogenic and exogenic dynamics in alpine gorges, the impact of climate change on the formation and evolution of surface hazards, and the evolution of extreme wind fields in deep-cut canyons. The technical problems faced in disaster risk prevention and mitigation in relation to the Sichuan–Tibet Railway are as follows: Advanced identification, monitoring, and early warning of geological disasters in mountainous areas with steep and complex terrain; risk analysis, prevention, and control of railway engineering disasters based on their dynamic processes; tunnel engineering hazard monitoring, early warning, risk analysis, prevention, and control technologies; key technologies for emergency response; and the green and resilient railway system and lifecycle risk management. The Sichuan–Tibet Fund special project will include five key research topics: (1) the interior geological structure and dynamic evolution of the eastern plateau; (2) the hazard-inducing mechanisms of coupled internal and external forces in canyons and gullies within plateaus; (3) the cataclysm mechanics of deeply buried long-distance tunnel engineering; (4) risk identification and projection of major disasters affecting the railway; and (5) the integrated management of scientific innovations and super large-scale railway construction. Systematic research is expected to reveal the evolution of earth surface movements and coupled engineering-disturbance related disasters. It will also enable the formation of a comprehensive risk analysis method for major engineering disasters, and promote the development of green, safe, efficient, and resilient engineering disaster risk reduction technologies that will support the disaster risk management during the entire lifecycle of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway.

Modern criminal justice faces new challenges due to digitalization and the potential implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Despite their potential to enhance the efficiency of criminal justice, these technologies pose risks and threats to the fundamental principles of criminal procedure, such as fairness, transparency, adversarial proceedings, and judicial independence. Special attention is given to the opacity of AI algorithms, which may undermine trust in the justice system. Furthermore, the lack of a clear regulatory framework for the use of AI creates additional legal risks for participants in criminal proceedings. The study aims to identify the risks and threats of integrating AI into criminal justice and to develop recommendations for establishing a risk management system. The goals include detection challenges arising from the digital transformation of criminal procedural activities, study of regulatory frameworks governing the digitalization of public administration, assessing the compatibility of AI technologies with traditional principles of criminal procedure, and proposing measures to mitigate risks. The study employs a risk-oriented approach, which involves risk identification, analysis, and management. The authors categorize risks into several types: geopolitical, infrastructural, operational, project-related, information security, and legal risks. The methods used include analysis of regulatory frameworks, forecasting, and a systematic approach to integrating AI into criminal justice. The study outlines the stages of creating a risk management system, including planning, identification, analysis, and management. In conclusion, the article emphasizes the need for a legal framework to regulate the use of AI technologies in criminal proceedings and highlights the importance of establishing a system to monitor, prevent, and manage risks. Such a system would facilitate the effective integration of new technologies while preserving the fundamental principles of criminal justice. In this context, enhancing the transparency of the criminal justice system and defining a core risk management strategy are of particular urgency and significance.