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  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.multra.2026.100290Copy DOI Icon

A foundational dwell time model for regional railways

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Abstract

This study presents a novel foundational Regional Dwell Time (RDT) Model tailored for regional railway networks, addressing the gap of existing dwell time models specifically designed for this type of railway. Using video-based observations from Victoria, Australia, empirical data were collected and analysed to develop a statistical regression model integrating passenger flow dynamics and operational constants such as door operation and train dispatch procedures. The proposed RDT Model was calibrated and validated against 398 regional train services at two stations. The model was compared with established statistical dwell time models in the literature. The RDT Model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy, with significantly lower error metrics (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) compared to alternative models. The study emphasizes the significance of operational time in dwell time estimations and highlights opportunities for reducing dwell time through improved operational procedures. Findings suggest the RDT Model's adaptability to various other regional railways, provided operational constants are recalibrated. This model serves as a proof-of-concept and a novel framework for dwell time modelling in peri‑urban regional railways, with broader applicability contingent on future multi-corridor validation. Future research on regional railways should aim to build on this type of model and explore real-time data integration and machine learning techniques to enhance predictive capabilities and network efficiency.

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