A framework for studying the effects of offshore wind energy development on birds and bats in the Eastern United States

The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008

Considered a keystone species in the southeastern US coastal plain, gopher tortoises occupy a variety of upland habitat types. Although upland pine-dominated habitats have received much attention, few studies have examined tortoises in nearby coastal beach dune habitats. To examine the distribution and abundance of gopher tortoises in northeast Florida coastal habitats, comprehensive burrow surveys were conducted 3 times during the last 8 yrs on 2 separate gopher tortoise populations near St. Augustine, Florida. The objectives for these surveys were to 1) examine changes in population size and structure in representative upland and coastal dune habitats and 2) describe the response of gopher tortoises to land management practices (i.e., prescribed fire). Total burrow density within the upland population remained stable over the 3 surveys (0.68 burrows/ha in 2005, 0.66 burrows/ha in 2007, and 0.64 burrows/ha in 2011). Burrow densities in the burned areas of the upland habitat increased in areas that were burned at least once since the time of the first survey in 2005 but decreased in areas that were infrequently burned or remained unburned. Burrow density on the beach dunes, however, greatly increased between the most recent 2 surveys (3.63 burrows/ha in 2007 and 8.95 burrows/ha in 2011), possibly attributable to an increased use of a relatively confined habitat, or sampling biases by surveyors. Three different correction factor methods were used to determine gopher tortoise population estimates for each of the surveys, providing a range of estimates. The results of this study and the few others focused on coastal beach dunes suggest that this vulnerable, yet important, habitat should receive more attention because some of the highest gopher tortoise burrow densities have been observed there.

Change in settlement size and structure has been underway since the earliest of settlements, and this has been due to a range of factors including changes in population size and structure, new technology, changing social and economic conditions, and so on.

Marine species are facing an increasing number of stressors and some species once thought to be resilient to change are now threatened. It is important to understand how species populations have changed through time so that management can be adjusted accordingly, and so that achievable restoration goals can be set. However, many species lack population data at multidecadal or longer time scales. Using historical data from the 1970s, this study investigates how the dynamics of a New Zealand abalone (Haliotis iris), or pāua, population at Peraki Bay changed over a 45-year period. No commercial fishing of the population occurred prior to the initial survey and limited commercial catch has been reported between surveys. Repeat monitoring of the H. iris population at a 45-year interval indicates that a large change in population size and structure had occurred. Since 1976, there has been an 84% decrease in estimated population size. The remaining population is restricted to where juveniles were found in the original survey. These findings are consistent with conclusions, made from modelling in the 1970s, that the population seen in the 1970s was not stable and that a possible cause was temporal variability in population recruitment.

Rural human settlement is an important factor in the sustainable development of the rural economy and society, and improving rural human settlement is an important task for China’s rural revitalization strategy. Based on the human settlement framework, this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system to evaluate the rural human settlement by calculating the rural human settlement index (RHSI) in Tibet. The results showed that: (1) The natural subsystem is extremely vulnerable. In recent years, the anti-interference ability and natural restoration ability of the ecosystem have gradually increased. Changes in population size, structure, and scale have made the level of the human subsystem lower. From the perspective of drinking water, communication and housing, the human settlement level of the residential subsystem was gradually improved. The construction of rural infrastructure was increasingly improved, driving the level of the supporting subsystem to improve. Furthermore, income and livelihood diversity were the key to improving the social subsystem; (2) From the perspective of the comprehensive index, the level of rural human settlement in Tibet showed a trend of significant improvement; (3) In terms of the explanatory power, the explanatory power of the five subsystems were quite different. The basic dimensions (natural subsystem, human subsystem, residential subsystem) lagged behind the development of the dominant dimensions (supporting subsystem, social subsystem). There were inconsistencies and mismatches. The recommended measures involve strengthening the top-level design of the planning of rural human settlement in farming and pastoral areas, and improving and strengthening the construction of rural infrastructure to improve the responsiveness of rural human settlement in Tibet.

Over a 52-month period beginning in May 2004 and concluding in August/September 2008, and coinciding with the period over which tributyltin was banned as a ship anti-foulant globally, a population of the dogwhelk, Nucella lapillus on the south-eastern coast of England, was studied for changes in population size and structure, reproduction and feeding behaviour. During the study period, the size of the N. lapillus population grew from ~25 individuals to >500, i.e. a 20-fold increase, and recovery from imposex was total. Significant changes in feeding behaviour were also reported. For example, peaks in N. lapillus predation were recorded over the winter months, but as population size increased, this temporal seasonality was masked due to the growing numbers of juveniles feeding on smaller and smaller individuals of Mytilus galloprovincialis (as opposed to barnacles) as the study progressed. Similarly, with freedom from imposex, the numbers of failed drilling attempts declined and numbers of prey with more than one drill hole increased as the incidence of kleptoparasitism increased. Predated M. galloprovincialis were also increasingly attacked in the antero- and postero-dorsal quadrants of their shells as the study progressed. Contrary to expectations, only a slightly positive relationship between predator and prey sizes was recorded overall however, suggesting that beyond a shell height of ~13 mm, when the transition from barnacle to mussel feeding occurs, M. galloprovincialis individuals of virtually any size are preyed upon by N. lapillus.

This model has been designed to assist decision making in the Health Services by predicting the effects on a local population of proposed policy decisions. Policy decisions are considered to:Change the amount of certain resources available, e.g. manpower, hospital beds; or Alter the methods of using resources, e.g. changing the emphasis of health care to the community rather than the hospital; or Change the characteristics of illnesses, e.g. by vaccination or screening. The model predicts the incidence of morbidity and mortality in a specified population and the changes in resource use over a period of years. Thus it is possible to see the long term effects of changes in population size and structure alongside the effects of management decisions on the use of health resources.The model has been designed principally for research purposes but has been used in the context of a health services management game. The validity of the model's predictions have yet to be tested. It is hoped to run the model in parallel with management decision making in a single health district in order to test the model's validity and improve its predictive ability.

Functional traits can drive plant responses to short- and long-term stressful conditions, with potential effects on species persistence in local habitats, changes in population size and structure, and potential species range shifts in changing environments. We investigated whether ecophysiological traits in a rare cycad vary along environmental gradients and with ontogeny to understand intra-specific resource-use variation (e.g. symbiotic nitrogen fixation, nitrogen- and water-use efficiency) and possible species adaptations for different environments. Environmental gradients were characterized with 14 soil and topographic variables. Nitrogen- and water-use efficiency improved with ontogeny (from seedling to juvenile and adult stages) but declined as soil fertility decreased with increasing elevation. Conversely, reliance on symbiotic nitrogen fixation increased with elevation and varied slightly with ontogeny. Improved water-use efficiency at lower elevation and nitrogen fixation at higher elevation may represent key functional strategies for maintaining the lower and upper altitudinal species range limits, especially in arid environments where stressful conditions are intensifying due to climatic and land-use changes. In addition to facilitation linked to the regeneration niche, improved resource-use efficiency linked to the adult niche may strongly influence cycad distribution and persistence in contemporary environments. A functional approach to conservation of rare or endangered plant species may be needed in order to target the most sensitive stages to changing environmental conditions and to better understand potential range shifts and adaptive responses to global land-use and climate changes.

Otters are elusive semi-aquatic mammals, occurring in low densities and difficult to count. A study was conducted in 15 stretches (10–12 km) of four tributaries of the Ebro River, with the aims to understand spatial and temporal changes in otter abundance and breeding success and the causes of such variations. Between 1990 and 2009, both otter parameters were assessed by means of visual spring–early summer censuses, carried out by sets of observers located every 500 m. A total of 134 censuses were carried out, involving 4,540 twilight watches (7,896.5 h) and 520 otter sightings were recorded. Also, 39 different habitat characteristics (including prey species) were established for each stretch. Otter abundance was assessed by means of three indexes related to the census effort and the length and surface units (in terms of otter habitat). Excluding the upper stretches, we found on average 0.07–0.26 adult and subadults per kilometre (1.45–6.26/km2). Important interannual fluctuations in otter abundance and breeding success were found in some Pyrenean stretches located downstream of a large reservoir. This was linked to the effect of autumn floods (in part due to the opening of dams) on the fish stocks (mainly Barbels). Similar habitat conditions resulted in similar abundances between stretches, and different habitat conditions generated different abundances in adjacent stretches of the same river. No significant differences were found for litter size between small cubs (1.60 ± 0.70 cubs per litter) and large cubs (1.39 ± 0.50) as a whole, but differences between stretches were found. On average we found between 0.009 and 0.130 large cubs per year per kilometre. Otters bred more successfully in stretches with higher otter densities. Otter abundance and breeding success correlated negatively with altitude as a consequence of the interaction of several habitat characteristics with altitude. The stepwise linear regression linked the number of adult otters per kilometre with the ecosystem production (chlorophyll a concentration), while the number of large cubs per kilometre per year was linked with the food (fish + crayfish) abundance. The findings bring about a consistent and congruent scenario of otter abundance and breeding success explained by the different steps along the food chain.

05/00270 Stochastic modelling in wave power-equipment optimization: maximum energy production versus maximum profit: de O. Falcõ, A. F. Ocean Engineering, 2004, 31, (11–12), 1407–1421

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population ‘crashes’ (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population ‘explosions’. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These ‘consensus years’ were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’.

Most eukaryotes harbor diverse and complex microbial communities, but we also know of many cases where the community composition and microbial load are unstable. I will give an overview of a few examples from our work on the microbiota of several insects, and rice. I will then describe the red flour beetle in more detail: its microbiome is beneficial for the host, but both the benefit and the microbial community structure vary dramatically. Across a 3-year period, the total load and composition of the bacterial community of laboratory stock populations fluctuated dramatically, cycling between a few dominant taxa and hundreds of rare taxa. Manipulative experiments suggest that this ecological drift is caused by changes in host population size and structure driven by laboratory maintenance protocols, as well as intrinsic differences in life stage-specific host-microbe interactions driven by host ecology. I suggest that such unstable microbial communities can serve as great model systems to understand the evolution and ecology of diverse host-microbial interactions.

There has been increasing recognition of the adverse effects of outdoor recreation on the behavioural ecology, breeding success and ultimate abandonment of territories in several raptor species, such as the Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata). We assessed the effects of human activities on the behaviour and breeding success of Bonelli's eagles breeding in south‐eastern Spain, using a 14‐year long‐term data set. Our results showed a weak behavioural response to human activities. The probability of eagle reaction varied among the human activities assessed and increased when they occurred close to a nest, being most marked for ecotourism activities. In general, the probability of a bird reacting increased sharply when an activity occurred closer than 480 m from the nest, but reactions were negligible when an activity occurred 1000 m away. Ecotourists only affected Bonelli's eagle behaviour at distances <300 m from the nest. We found a negative relationship between human activity and Bonelli's eagle behaviour: the probability of a reaction decreased with the increasing frequency of human activities, suggesting a degree of eagle habituation. Breeding success did not vary with a pair's experience of disturbance, nor between the periods before, during and after the COVID‐19 lockdown but did increase with the frequency of human activities. Our results indicated that Bonelli's eagles can develop a degree of tolerance to human activities during the nesting season. This behavioural plasticity offers the opportunity to harmonize anthropogenic activities with the application of specific conservation measures for this species in humanized landscapes. Our findings led to suggestions to minimize the detrimental effects of human activities and to optimize the conservation management of Bonelli's eagles in Southeastern Spain. More generally, our study emphasises the value of behavioural ecology studies for guiding conservation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Long-term studies are crucial in ecology, environmental change assessment, resource management and biodiversity conservation. Stercorarius maccormicki (hereinafter – south polar skua) are predators that can threaten populations of bird species of the orders Sphenisciformes and Procellariiformes. At many places in Antarctica, abundance trends for the skua are not known or have not been updated. This study is an attempt to answer the question: how did a south polar skua population react to changes in environmental conditions during 1956–2013? The objectives of the study was (1) to establish the dynamics of the breeding skua population on the Haswell Islands, i.e. Haswell Island and the small islands of the Haswell Archipelago during 1956–2013, and (2) to explain the reasons of the changes in the studied population. A secondary research question was whether there were changes in the spatial distribution of the breeding skua population on the Haswell Archipelago during the study period? The studies have been carried out on the Haswell Archipelago (Davis Sea), mainly in Antarctic Specially Protected Area №127 «Haswell Island and adjacent emperor penguin rookery on fast ice». Ground count was the main method for determining the size of bird colonies. South polar skua bred on 3–8 islands of the Haswell Archipelago. In the study period, the population size of the south polar skua has changed on the Haswell Archipelago. A decrease in the number of individuals (-52%) was observed between 1956–1957 and 1966–1967 breeding seasons. Between 1966–1967 and 1999–2000 breeding seasons, the skua population declined by 30.7% and reached the lowest value of 18 pairs. Population growth (344.4%) was recorded between 1999–2000 and 2009–2010 breeding seasons, with an increase of 33.8% and reaching the maximum value (83 pairs) in 2010–2011 breeding season. By 2012–2013 breeding season, the south polar skua population has declined by 13.2%. On Haswell Island, between 1956–1957 and 2012–2013 breeding seasons, there was a change in skua abundance that was similar to the change in the total breeding population on Haswell Archipelago during the entire period. On the small islands of the Haswell Archipelago, the number of breeding south polar skuas declined (-80%) between 1956–1957 and 1962–1963 breeding seasons. The breeding seasons of 1962–1963, 1966–1967 and 1999–2000 were characterised by the lowest number of individuals. Between 1999–2000 and 2009–2010 breeding seasons, the number of south polar skuas increased by 400%. A decrease in abundance (-41.6%) occurred between 2009–2010 and 2010–2011, followed by the consequent increase (by 36.3%) by 2012–2013 breeding season. During the study period, changes in the abundance of south polar skuas on the Haswell Archipelago were independent of changes in average daily November temperatures between 1956–1957 and 2012–2013 breeding seasons (Mann-Whitney test U = 0, p = 0.0017, n = 7 (asymptotic (2-sided))), when they were laying eggs and heating them. The number of south polar skuas changed independently of changes in the number of individuals of their prey, represented by Aptenodytes forsteri, Pygoscelis adeliae, and Fulmarus glacialoides (respectively U = 49, p = 0.0006, n = 7; U = 16, p = 0.029, n = 4; U = 16, p = 0.029, n = 4 (asymptotic (2-sided))). The high mortality of eggs, chicks and local weather conditions could influence the breeding success of the south polar skua, which could have a delayed effect on their long-term dynamics. Human activities have influenced the skua population, but have not been studied quantitatively. On the Haswell Archipelago, the reasons for historical changes in abundance of the breeding skua population remain largely unclear.

Sustainable Development Goals 2 target 2.2 aimed to end all forms of malnutrition by 2030. However, the prevalence of inadequate minimum dietary diversity (MDD) is high in Ethiopia and the evidence of trends and determinants of MDD consumption change among children over time is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to determine trends and determinants of MDD consumption change among children aged 6 to 23 months in Ethiopia from 2011-2019 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. The study used the data on nationally representative weighted samples of 6,971, 7,467, and 3,154 children aged 6-23 months from the 2011, 2016, and 2019 rounds of the DHS. Trend and Multivariate Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine MDD consumption change from 2011-2016, and 2016-2019 into two components: one that was explained by differences in the level of the determinants (endowment), and the other component was explained by differences in the effect of the covariates on the outcome (coefficient effects). The trends analysis showed that adequate MDD consumption significantly increased from 2% to 10.41% from 2011 to 2016 but decreased from 10.41% to 7.11% from 2016 to 2019 in Ethiopia. The compositional and behavioral change factors like maternal age, occupational status of parents, sex of the household head, wealth index, residence, and sex of child statistically contributed to changes in MDD consumption from 2011 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2019 at p-value <0.05. The trend of minimum dietary diversity consumption among children aged 6 to 23 months in Ethiopia increased from 2011-2016 and decreased from 2016-2019 in the last decade. The study revealed that the changes in behavioral response and population composition contributed to MDD consumption change among children in Ethiopia. The finding highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions and policies to address the issue of MDD consumption change among young children due to population structure changes like wealth status, residence, and behavioral response related to employment, household head, and sex of the child in Ethiopia. Therefore, efforts should be geared to reduce poverty and improve maternal employment status, particularly for women, by producing equitable economic opportunities.