A Machine Learning Approach to Crude Oil Price Prediction Using Support Vector Machine (SVM)

The price of crude oil is tied to major economic activities in all nations of the world, as a change in the price of crude oil invariably affects the cost of other goods and services. This has made the prediction of crude oil price a top priority for researchers and scientists alike. In this paper we present an intelligent system that predicts the price of crude oil. This system is based on Support Vector Machines. Support Vector Machines are supervised learners founded upon the principle of statistical learning theory. Our system utilized as its input key economic indicators which affect the price of crude oil and has as its output the price of crude oil. Data for our system was obtained from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dataset spanning 24 years and experimental results obtained were very promising as it proved that support vector machines could be used with a high degree of accuracy in predicting crude oil price.

This study investigated the prediction of crude oil price based on energy product prices using genetically optimized Neural Network (GANN). It was found from experimental evidence that the international crude oil price can be predicted based on energy product prices. The comparison of the prediction performance accuracy of the propose GANN with Support Vector Machine (SVM), Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Feed Forward NN (FFNN) suggested that the propose GANN was more accurate than the SVM, VAR, and FFNN in the prediction accuracy and time computational complexity. The propose GANN was able to improve the performance accuracy of the comparison algorithms. Our approach can easily be modified for the prediction of similar commodities.

Prediction of crude oil prices in COVID-19 outbreak using real data

Crude oil prices are linked to significant economic activity in all nations across the world, since changes in crude oil prices usually impact the pricing of other commodities and services. As a result, forecasting crude oil prices has become a primary goal for academics and scientists alike. Crude oil has been the most important commodity in the world market and some countries like Nigeria, has it as the main trading commodity to other countries. Crude oil price fluctuations therefore cause problems on global economies and its effects are far reaching leading to either positive or negative economic growth rates. This study present an intelligent system that predicts the price of crude oil. The method used major economic factors that determine the price per barrel as inputs and outputs the price of crude oil. The data for usage came from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dataset, which spanned 24 years, and the experimental findings were quite hopeful, demonstrating that support vector machines could be used to forecast crude oil prices with a reasonable level of accuracy. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors were employed in this investigation (KNN) for predicting Crude oil prices and the accuracy of the K-Nearest Neighbours was found to be higher than the Support Vector Machine by 9%.KeywordsCrude oilDatasetMachine learningEconomicsPrice predition

Cancer survival classification using integrated data sets and intermediate information.

The objective of this paper is the use of new hybrid meta-heuristic method called Guided Best-So-Far Honey Bees Inspired Algorithm with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on the Prediction of Crude Oil Prices of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Very high volatility of crude oil prices is one of the main hurdles for the economic development; therefore, it’s the need of the hour to predict crude oil prices, especially for oil-rich countries such as KSA. Hence, in this paper, we are proposing a hybrid algorithm, named: Guided Best-So-Far Artificial Bee Colony (GBABC) algorithm. The proposed algorithm has been trained and tested with ANN for finding the optimal weight values to increase the exploration and exploitation process with balance quantities to obtain the accurate prediction of crude oil prices. The KSA crude oil prices of the five years 2013 to 2017 have been used to train ANN with different topologies and learning parameters of the proposed method for the prediction of the crude oil prices of the next day. The simulation results have been very promising and encouraging of the proposed algorithm when compared and analyzed with ABC, GABC (Gbest Guided ABC) and Best-So-Far ABC methods for prediction purpose. In most cases, the actual prices and predicted crude oil KSA prices are very close, which were obtained by the proposed GBABC method based on the optimal weight values of ANN and minimum prediction error.

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Good water quality is important for normal production processes in industrial aquaculture. However, in situ or real-time monitoring is generally not available for many aquacultural systems due to relatively high monitoring costs. Therefore, it is necessary to predict water quality parameters in industrial aquaculture systems to obtain useful information for managing production activities. This study used back propagation neural network (BPNN), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector machine (SVM), and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to simulate and predict water quality parameters including dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, ammonium-nitrogen (NH3-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), and nitrite-nitrogen (NO2-N). Published data were used to compare the prediction accuracy of different methods. The correlation coefficients of BPNN, RBFNN, SVM, and LSSVM for predicting DO were 0.60, 0.99, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively. The correlation coefficients of BPNN, RBFNN, SVM, and LSSVM for predicting pH were 0.56, 0.84, 0.99, and 0.57. The correlation coefficients of BPNN, RBFNN, SVM, and LSSVM for predicting NH3-N were 0.28, 0.88, 0.99, and 0.25, respectively. The correlation coefficients of BPNN, RBFNN, SVM, and LSSVM for predicting NO3-N were 0.96, 0.87, 0.99, and 0.87, respectively. The correlation coefficients of BPNN, RBFNN, SVM, and LSSVM predicted NO2-N with correlation coefficients of 0.87, 0.08, 0.99, and 0.75, respectively. SVM obtained the most accurate and stable prediction results, and SVM was used for predicting the water quality parameters of industrial aquaculture systems with groundwater as the source water. The results showed that the SVM achieved the best prediction effect with accuracy of 99% for both published data and measured data from a typical industrial aquaculture system. The SVM model is recommended for simulating and predicting the water quality in industrial aquaculture systems.

In the field of machine learning, support vector machine is a supervised learning model which can analyze the data and identify patterns, and this theory is used for classification and regression analysis which is related to the learning algorithm.Support vector machine is a new machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and has become a hot research topic in the machine learning field because of its excellent learning performance.Support vector machine is also a learning machine based on kernel function, and its generalization ability depends on the chosen kernel function to a great extent.Nevertheless, traditional support vector machine cannot achieve the desired results when training large-scale data set.Therefore, in order to improve training efficiency and generalization performance of support vector machine, we have to improve this algorithm.Although support vector machine has great advantages in theory, the research on its application is comparatively delayed.In this paper, we focus on novel support vector machine generated from multi-subjects amalgamation, such as fuzzy support vector machine, granular support vector machine, twin support vector machine.We analyze a large number of literature review about development trend of support vector machine and its applications in computer field, laying foundation for the systematic research on the correlation algorithm based on support vector machine.

Using information technology such as search engine for collecting and monitoring of network public opinion is a practical and effective method. This paper puts forward an improved algorithm of SVM classifier based on incremental learning online, and then implements a topic crawler system for network public opinion and to grab the public opinion.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

Background Machine learning (ML) algorithm support vector machine (SVM) performed better than Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score for ASIAN STEMI patients. However, Deep Learning (DL) effectiveness in the multiethnic ASIAN population has yet to be determined. DL has automatic learning of the feature from a given dataset without the need to conduct feature selection. However, the selected features by the algorithm is black box. Identifying features associated with mortality is essential to recognize characteristics of patients with high risk for better patient management. Purpose To develop a DL algorithm for in-hospital mortality in multiethnic STEMI patients using predictors identified from the SVM algorithm. To investigate DL performance constructed using predictors from SVM feature extraction and expert-recommended predictors. Methods We constructed four algorithms; a) DL and SVM algorithms with predictors identified from the SVM variable importance b) DL and SVM using predictors based on expert recommendation. We used registry data from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database of 11397 patient's. Fifty parameters including demographics, cardiovascular risk, medications and clinical variables were considered. The Area under the curve (AUC) is the performance evaluation metric. Algorithms were validated against the TIMI and tested using the same validation data. SVM variable importance with backward elimination was used to select and rank important variables. Results DL algorithms outperform SVM and TIMI on the validation dataset; i) DL with SVM selected predictors (15 predictors, AUC = 0.97), ii) DL with expert-recommended predictors (16 predictors, AUC = 0.96), iii) SVM with selected predictors (15 predictors, AUC = 0.92), iv) SVM with expert-recommended predictors (AUC = 0.89) and TIMI (AUC = 0.82). Common predictors across SVM feature selection, expert-recommendation and TIMI are: age, heart rate, Killip class, fasting blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, comorbid diseases and ST-elevation. SVM feature selection also identified diuretics, PCI and pharmacotherapy drugs as predictors that improve mortality prediction in STEMI patients. Our findings suggest that the TIMI score underestimates patients risk of mortality. DL algorithm using selected predictors classified 35% of nonsurvival patients as high risk (risk probabilities >50%) compared to only 12.7% nonsurvival patients by TIMI (score >5) (Figure below). Conclusions In the ASIAN population, patients with STEMI can be better classified using the DL algorithm compared to the ML and TIMI score. Combining ML feature selection with DL allows the identification of distinct factors in a unique ASIAN population for better mortality prediction than relying solely on an expert recommendation as it is a very subjective approach. Continuous validation on population-specific algorithms using DL and ML is needed before implementing in a real clinical setting. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Technology Development Fund 1 TIMI performance on validation setDL performance on validation set

Hepatitis is a widespread inflammatory condition of the liver, presenting a formidable global health challenge. Accurate and timely detection of hepatitis is crucial for effective patient management, yet existing methods exhibit limitations that underscore the need for innovative approaches. Early-stage detection of hepatitis is now possible with the recent adoption of machine learning and deep learning approaches. With this in mind, the study investigates the use of traditional machine learning models, specifically classifiers such as logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, random forest, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and other models, to predict hepatitis infections. After extensive data preprocessing including outlier detection, dataset balancing, and feature engineering, we evaluated the performance of these models. We explored three modeling approaches: machine learning with default hyperparameters, hyperparameter-tuned models using GridSearchCV, and ensemble modeling techniques. The SVM model demonstrated outstanding performance, achieving 99.25% accuracy and a perfect AUC score of 1.00 with consistency in other metrics with 99.27% precision, and 99.24% for both recall and F1-measure. The MLP and Random Forest proved to be in pace with the superior performance of SVM exhibiting an accuracy of 99.00%. To ensure robustness, we employed a 5-fold cross-validation technique. For deeper insight into model interpretability and validation, we employed an explainability analysis of our best-performed models to identify the most effective feature for hepatitis detection. Our proposed model, particularly SVM, exhibits better prediction performance regarding different performance metrics compared to existing literature.

Undernutrition among children under the age of five is a major public health concern, especially in developing countries. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict undernutrition and identify its associated factors. Secondary data analysis of the 2017 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) was performed using R and Python. The main outcomes of interest were undernutrition (stunting: height-for-age (HAZ) < -2 SD; wasting: weight-for-height (WHZ) < -2 SD; and underweight: weight-for-age (WAZ) < -2 SD). Seven ML algorithms were trained and tested: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic model, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), ridge regression, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The ML models were evaluated using the accuracy, confusion matrix, and area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristics (ROC). In total, 8564 children were included in the final analysis. The average age of the children was 926 days, and the majority were females. The weighted prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 17%, 7%, and 12%, respectively. The accuracies of all the ML models for wasting were (LDA: 84%; Logistic: 95%; SVM: 92%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 96%; Ridge: 84%, XGBoost: 98%), stunting (LDA: 86%; Logistic: 86%; SVM: 98%; RF: 88%; LASSO: 86%; Ridge: 86%, XGBoost: 98%), and for underweight were (LDA: 90%; Logistic: 92%; SVM: 98%; RF: 89%; LASSO: 92%; Ridge: 88%, XGBoost: 98%). The AUC values of the wasting models were (LDA: 99%; Logistic: 100%; SVM: 72%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 99%; Ridge: 59%, XGBoost: 100%), for stunting were (LDA: 89%; Logistic: 90%; SVM: 100%; RF: 92%; LASSO: 90%; Ridge: 89%, XGBoost: 100%), and for underweight were (LDA: 95%; Logistic: 96%; SVM: 100%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 96%; Ridge: 82%, XGBoost: 82%). Age, weight, length/height, sex, region of residence and ethnicity were important predictors of wasting, stunting and underweight. The XGBoost model was the best model for predicting wasting, stunting, and underweight. The findings showed that different ML algorithms could be useful for predicting undernutrition and identifying important predictors for targeted interventions among children under five years in Ghana.

Classification and prediction tasks are common in health research. With the increasing availability of vast health data repositories (e.g. electronic medical record databases) and advances in computing power, traditional statistical approaches are being augmented or replaced with machine learning (ML) approaches to classify and predict health outcomes. ML describes the automated process of identifying ("learning") patterns in data to perform tasks. Developing an ML model includes selecting between many ML models (e.g. decision trees, support vector machines, neural networks); model specifications such as hyperparameter tuning; and evaluation of model performance. This process is conducted repeatedly to find the model and corresponding specifications that optimize some measure of model performance. ML models can make more accurate classifications and predictions than their statistical counterparts and confer greater flexibility when modelling unstructured data or interactions between covariates; however, many ML models require larger sample sizes to achieve good classification or predictive performance and have been criticized as "black box" for their poor transparency and interpretability. ML holds potential in family medicine for risk profiling of patients' disease risk and clinical decision support to present additional information at times of uncertainty or high demand. In the future, ML approaches are positioned to become commonplace in family medicine. As such, it is important to understand the objectives that can be addressed using ML approaches and the associated techniques and limitations. This article provides a brief introduction into the use of ML approaches for classification and prediction tasks in family medicine.